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5.5 Years To Flow?

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Old 04-17-2020 | 10:25 AM
  #221  
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Originally Posted by wiz5422
It might be wise for some of you to do some research on the old Eagle and the pilots that were hired in 1999 and 2000. They were told that they would be over at AA in less then 24 months.

Guess what....they were still there in 2011. This is worse then 9/11, plus AA just shrunk their retirement numbers by offering the early outs. Add that to them parking 3 fleets and possible furloughs you can start to add the dots that AA won't be hiring for some time, a long time. Welcome to the the new generation of the loss decade.
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 10:59 AM
  #222  
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Originally Posted by rld1k
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.
^^^^This guy gets it. Except I think it will be quite a bit quicker than what you described.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 11:04 AM
  #223  
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Originally Posted by rld1k
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.
Umm... because every airline analyst and CEO are saying it. Not to mention anyone who has walked through an airport in the last month.

For the airline industry it is clearly and objectively WAY worse. Will it be worse for pilot careers than 9/11 followed by the 2008 recession with a retirement age change thrown in? THAT’s still TBD.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 12:00 PM
  #224  
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You need money to buy a ticket. No job, no money ergo no airline ticket.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 12:38 PM
  #225  
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Originally Posted by rld1k
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didn’t have those kind of numbers.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 01:11 PM
  #226  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didn’t have those kind of numbers.
Let's get our facts right.
"The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression".

It's bad, but no-one predicts these numbers to stay that high after they start reopening the economy.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 01:20 PM
  #227  
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The silver lining could be that unlike the Great Depression or 2008, this was not an obvious failure of our system. This has not resulted from a bank run or negligent credit rating agencies. It was an intentional shutdown for public health concerns, the likes of which has never been seen before. We are in uncharted territory and nobody truly knows what is going to happen.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 01:51 PM
  #228  
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Originally Posted by dera
Let's get our facts right.
"The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression".

It's bad, but no-one predicts these numbers to stay that high after they start reopening the economy.
OK. So my source was incorrect. I guess all sources should be suspect. Maybe we haven’t reached those levels, yet. This still hasn’t hit bottom, so how can anyone accurately predict how bad it will get or how long it will take to recover?

The other reality is when it does recover, what it recovers to will be different. I’m not saying there will be a paradigm shift, but there WILL be social changes that undoubtedly affect much of life, including travel, permanently.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 02:07 PM
  #229  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude

The other reality is when it does recover, what it recovers to will be different. I’m not saying there will be a paradigm shift, but there WILL be social changes that undoubtedly affect much of life, including travel, permanently.
No one knows at this point. What we can see is that a paradigm shift has at least been introduced that’s opened the door to a host of potential lifestyle changes. I think we’ve been too eager to accept them without considering the consequences. I also think the response to this has missed the mark for preserving the lifestyles we’ve enjoyed. Air travel seems to be one of the most dispensable options when considering the potential casualties of a knee-jerk overreaction.
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Old 04-17-2020 | 03:25 PM
  #230  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didn’t have those kind of numbers.
No indication we've hit the bottom? We're trading at january 2020 levels right now. It's about as V shaped as you can get. Unemployment is high but when everything opens it will go right back down.

By not being worse than 9/11 I'm talking about career progression.
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