I don’t think so. You might see the first flow in late 2021.

 

Now that is truly a wild dream.

 

you don’t think so brotha?

 

I dont

AA will likely furlough come Oct and may start recalling them late 2021. Will have to get those furloughs back on property before flow starts back up.

 

Also have to remember that there are a number of 62+ year olds that have been offered early retirement. That will mean a large chunk that don’t come back, but also means fewer retirements over the next three years as well.

 

My opinions

1. With XXX mainline jets parked, and a "revised business model post-COVID" (all the CEO's have said this...) this means the staffing requirements will be different. Indeed, XXX retirements but these may simply retire-down the numbers to the new-normal staffing requirements.

2. Nobody knows how soon, or even if, travel numbers will return to pre-COVID levels.

3. Some say the cheaper regionals, painted in mainline colors, may expand once this is done. Some say otherwise. UAL Kirby said this is the end of the 50-seater. What does this mean ? The new world is a bunch of 175's and CRJ-700s ? I don't know.

4. Cargo is going crazy but even cargo may be affected, if Big-3 get into the cargo business to keep the rent paid.

The CEO's themselves do not know what the new world will look like, so I doubt anybody on APC does.

Good Luck

 

Delta and United have both announced they will be smaller airlines on the back side of this thing. American isn't any different, they just haven't said it out loud yet.

Between the 190's, 757/767, A330-300's and the block 1 737's we are permanently retiring over 150 airplanes now, with rumors of the early 319/320's and some 777-200's to follow.

The retirements still work in our favor, but I wont be surprised if the seniority list shrinks between 3000-4000 when it's all said and done.

 

Fa la la la la la, la la la laaaaaaaa.

 

I was thinking fa ra ra

 

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?