Is that 50% Domestic & 50% International?
Or Domestic only?

Because AA Domestic pilots required at 100% demand(pre Covid) were 4,150(active)pilots, and International pilots at 100% demand were 9,350(active)pilots.

So, for example 50% Domestic + 20% International = ?

“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.”

No Furloughs at the regionals!

 

WHO will be at 50% TSA numbers?

Envoy numbers might be if AAG keeps propping is up at the expense of everyone else.

But international and wide body flying has to really get pumped up to see much of an overall increase and there certainly isn’t any indication that international will open significantly anytime soon and no indication of that much of an uptick in bookings.

Destination event/locations have to open and people have to be willing to jump back in the travel pool.

 

Go to the beach it's packed. Disney announcement tomorrow about opening in June. When the states open in June/July domestic is going to skyrocket. Intl is opening similarly. Doom and gloom from hacks on seekingalpha and airline MGMT fishing for concessions.

Maybe I'm bias because I just made a lot of money on airline and cruise stock options today.

 

I doubt it, but I honestly hope you’re right. As long as people wont be flying and walking Petri dishes.

 

Yeah I am not seeing it either, at least not to the extent you are proclaiming. Beaches can be full because it is locals going to the place they used to go to almost everyday, much like a grocery store. If you lived near a beach you would understand that. Same can be said for restaurants even though they have not seen a giant recovery yet either.

Long story short, comparing a beach to travel is ignorant and overly optimistic. Disney can open all they want, doesn't mean people are going to rush to it and we dont know "how" they will open. Maybe they greatly limit how many people can enter the part, thus again brining down your optimistic feeling of airline recovery in the next month or two.

I am not trying to be negative Nancy or anything, but it seems so many people are clinging to any bit of hope and not looking at the big picture. Envoy is insulated from a lot of this because we are picking up the required flying from AA as well as flying from our competition, mainly due to cheaper costs. TSA is still well over 2,000,000 people a day short of what they were last year, with just a couple exceptions. Think about that, 2,000,000 empty seats a day that are not being filled, a day. That will not just suddenly rush back to normal because states reopen or Disney opens.

Sorry, we are stuck here for awhile, which goes back to the days of fighting so strongly for solid contract improvements.

 

It's not just locals at the beach. I don't know anyone under 40 who gives a sh** about this virus. The only thing crushing us right now is governor's overreacting.

 

Im seeing 19 additions on the 145 and 10 on the 175. This is on the proposal for June which dropped yesterday. I’m not sure why the big change happened but Mesa went from 47 flights a day in June to 21.

 

Maybe you don’t, but two of the most millennial-esque (early 30’s and pilots) individuals I know are also probably THE two most paranoid people about this that I know.

One is physically separated from his wife during this, the other orders ALL groceries delivered and cleans the packages before they go in the house. He also won’t wear his uniform in the car and obviously in the house. Changes at work.

 

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one or at least call it anecdotal at best. I live in a state that has been leading the pack for easing of restrictions and even the local gym I am at, is still seeing crowds around 75% less than they used to pre-covid and this is a group of people that fall right into your number range. Again, this experience is anecdotal as well, however I think it is a little negligent to just say everyone under 40 doesn't give a ****. I also dont think governors are overreacting as this was a brand new virus that we had little to no information about, no vaccine for, no antibodies existed and very little good data on its spread. If you add in that they think it has over 19 variants now, this is something people need to be more concerned about.

Remember, it is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide from a communicable disease standpoint and has already taken more American lives than the Vietnam war, by a lot.

Another way to think about is this way. The US lost about 415,000 people in WWII and that lasted for us a little over 4 years. We have hit 1/4 that number already with Covid and it really hasn't even been 1/2 a year yet. I understand war and disease are different, but I am trying to put it into a perspective that we can measure against.

Shifting gears, the WSJ has an article out about how the stock market is doing well, yet consumer sentiment is at a 10 year low. We are seeing contraction instead of expansion, we are record unemployment, personal income is the lowest since 2013 all while consumer spending plummeted at a rate not seen since 1959.

Things are not rosy and come October, its only going to get worse.

 

Not to worry, THKoolAid will still tell you that you are still already an AA pilot and flow will resume any day.