Envoy's future
04-16-2014 | 07:52 PM
#81
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Joined: Jul 2010
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Interesting predictionsMason. My question is how do you come up with these.
I am going to call you the APC prophet!
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.
I am going to call you the APC prophet!
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.
PDT and PSA won't be able to grow as fast as they would need.
All the Regionals have to cover their own flying, and all of them are struggling. They have to double the size of PSA and PDT and still need 1,500 more pilots to cover Envoy flying.
Envoy is not going anywhere in the next 10 years at least. Apply to the regional that's best for you in terms of commuting. All the regionals future is not very clear, not because they are getting airplanes or a new contract, means that they will be the place to go.
Envoy was the place to go in 2011, RAH was the place to go 2012 and 2013. Today they are shrinking like other regionals. MESA and PSA are the place to go today in terms of "growth", but are the ones with POS contract.
04-16-2014 | 07:53 PM
#82
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,648
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Interesting predictionsMason. My question is how do you come up with these.
I am going to call you the APC prophet!
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.
I am going to call you the APC prophet!
How will Envoy become the only way to AA if PSA and PDT already have paths to AA?
What if they decide to grow Pdt and PSA and slowly shrink Envoy to zero?
I am getting close to the 1500 hours (with a conditional offer) and strongly consider going to Envoy, just because I live in one of their large bases, but Envoy's future doesn't look very clear at this time.
04-16-2014 | 08:10 PM
#83
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Joined: Aug 2011
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From: Cloud surfing
Bzzt and PilotJ3, thank you for the feedback.
Nothing is certain with any regional, agreed. I will stick with no commute option first looks like.
Nothing is certain with any regional, agreed. I will stick with no commute option first looks like.
04-17-2014 | 04:33 AM
#84
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Joined: Apr 2011
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AA will continue reducing envoy frequency as larger RJs slowly come online. They will also drop the lowest yield markets. They will - within a year - make envoy the ONLY way to AA with a bigger flow program. They will buy other regionals for staffing more than equipment.
Once envoy becomes the only way to AA it will drive recruiting way up as pilots from places like Mesa, TSA, GoJets etc... Race to get hired at envoy. They can continue applying everywhere else, and be secure in their eventual flow to AA. Eventually, AAG will develop an ab-initio program to take them from zero to regional hero, with flow to AA. Finally, once all those pilots dry up, they will eventually bring the flying back in house. Delta will act similarly, but is far behind AAG in getting it set up. I told people for the past few years that the only jobs worth having will be with wholly owned regionals. Soon, you'll all see why.
I've encouraged our guys to get ahead of this and number all the envoy guys. The company controls hiring. They will make envoy the only way to AA, and that will in essence put them in seniority order, and we can't stop it. By numbering them all, we then demand a representation vote. Kick ALPA out, bring them into APA and begin a new contract. Some hard liners here at APA still can't see that we need to do this now before our leverage is gone. If the company does make all of our hiring from envoy, we will lose that leverage. The company is going to use our job as a hiring tool for envoy; while we collect no dues for an entire pilot group that us essentially stapled to our list.
Places like Mesa will eventually become dead end jobs as each legacy after legacy copies this model to attract pilots. As they default on their contracts, the legacies will poach them at giveaway prices.
Knowing how they think, I'd put RAH and AW high on the list for potential acquisition.
Once envoy becomes the only way to AA it will drive recruiting way up as pilots from places like Mesa, TSA, GoJets etc... Race to get hired at envoy. They can continue applying everywhere else, and be secure in their eventual flow to AA. Eventually, AAG will develop an ab-initio program to take them from zero to regional hero, with flow to AA. Finally, once all those pilots dry up, they will eventually bring the flying back in house. Delta will act similarly, but is far behind AAG in getting it set up. I told people for the past few years that the only jobs worth having will be with wholly owned regionals. Soon, you'll all see why.
I've encouraged our guys to get ahead of this and number all the envoy guys. The company controls hiring. They will make envoy the only way to AA, and that will in essence put them in seniority order, and we can't stop it. By numbering them all, we then demand a representation vote. Kick ALPA out, bring them into APA and begin a new contract. Some hard liners here at APA still can't see that we need to do this now before our leverage is gone. If the company does make all of our hiring from envoy, we will lose that leverage. The company is going to use our job as a hiring tool for envoy; while we collect no dues for an entire pilot group that us essentially stapled to our list.
Places like Mesa will eventually become dead end jobs as each legacy after legacy copies this model to attract pilots. As they default on their contracts, the legacies will poach them at giveaway prices.
Knowing how they think, I'd put RAH and AW high on the list for potential acquisition.
I have thought that somehow a combining of RAH and Envoy would solve both carriers weaknesses; RAH has planes and needs pilots and Envoy has pilots, and losing them fast with no promise of planes. Envoy will have to move soon though because people are bailing from both ends of the seniority list.
04-17-2014 | 05:02 AM
#85
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Joined: Jul 2011
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So theoretically.. "If" there was a ever a merge with RAH and all hiring done through Eagle (~F envoy). How would the flow work? I'm sure their would be some sort or seniority integration but as far as flow.. The only fair thing to do would be to staple them to the bottom of our current flow list. We have agreements in place and they are not part of it. People have been waiting years/decade + for this opportunity.. And we have arbitration awards in place. If they think they would just let RAH pilots mix in and cut in line over Eagle pilots they have another thing coming.
Plus any seniority integration would be a nightmare of people getting f-d over.. like the pinno-co-laba mess. Eagle is way more of a senior airline than RAH.
Plus any seniority integration would be a nightmare of people getting f-d over.. like the pinno-co-laba mess. Eagle is way more of a senior airline than RAH.
04-17-2014 | 05:22 AM
#86
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Joined: Aug 2008
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From: forever fo
So theoretically.. "If" there was a ever a merge with RAH and all hiring done through Eagle (~F envoy). How would the flow work? I'm sure their would be some sort or seniority integration but as far as flow.. The only fair thing to do would be to staple them to the bottom of our current flow list. We have agreements in place and they are not part of it. People have been waiting years/decade + for this opportunity.. And we have arbitration awards in place. If they think they would just let RAH pilots mix in and cut in line over Eagle pilots they have another thing coming.
Plus any seniority integration would be a nightmare of people getting f-d over.. like the pinno-co-laba mess. Eagle is way more of a senior airline than RAH.
Plus any seniority integration would be a nightmare of people getting f-d over.. like the pinno-co-laba mess. Eagle is way more of a senior airline than RAH.
04-17-2014 | 05:49 AM
#87
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Actually besides some pre 96 hires at eagle about 400 guys, the two are a similar foot print, esp post 2000 which makes up the vast majority of pilots. They would need some senior pilot fences to keep the senior eagle guys and the senior rah guys happy, however outside that it's fairly similar, we went on the same hiring binges the last 15 years and have similar upgrade times and fo seniority. Further the senior 400 at eagle is our managements biggest complaint, they would love to screw that group.
<5 yr FO seniority and hiring may be somewhat similar. No way its even close for the CA side though.
Last edited by RyanP; 04-17-2014 at 05:59 AM.
04-17-2014 | 05:54 AM
#88
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From: forever fo
Yes but remember by years end and into next year, we will suddenly only have 600-800 guys hired prior to 2000.
04-17-2014 | 07:06 AM
#90
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Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 740
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As a former eagle flow back like to say good bye to the "eagle flight" call sign. Hope to see you goes over here ASAP.
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