What would the pilots have to do with that?

With PDT's flow going up and PSA having Pilot go it's going to be about 650 if the 800 new hires will be WO'ed pilots. Not a bad recruiting tool.

That's the plan, from HR and recruitment.

All they have to do is ask.

I heard it.

800 new hires would be 400 from envoy alone. Almost 1/2 the current active FO's.

Things that make ya go hummmmm..,,

I think they are counting on the flow pulling people from other carriers and the fact that with the pilot shortage you might see a few Contract carriers go away.

Can Envoy hire fast enough to replace all the pilots AA is hiring or is there a number where Envoy says stop?

How's the PDT flow will go up?

It goes up as we grow in size. Goes to 4 a month when we have (I think 480 pilots)

Yes...350 pilots is the baseline. At 475 PDT gets 4 flows a month, 600 pilots is 5 flows, etc...

Yeah, It's a good recruiting tool. It's also great at keeping pay low in the industry.

Flow up now; flush back later...

Now the question is...if PDT goes up to 475 pilots and then when the flows goes up, it can't get enough people and goes down below that number, does it goes down back to 3?

Thanks Richard!

wonder where I heard all of that before.....

If you're not at a wholly owned; you should be. The smart ones are the 28 who were in class at Envoy this month getting in ahead of the wave.



oh, and it's a good time to be an.....
:D

To be a what, Cujo? To be a corporate sell-out?

fixed it for ya.

If they maintained their current rate it could mean ~550 to flow. 68% of 800 is 544

2.5 or less to CA/ 6 or less to flow?

Im still not buying It. There are not enough NH out there to fill so many vacancies. I hope we get to see that, but AAG would have to produce a miracle...

Something like, AA numbers or seniority for Envoy pilots. We are too damaged from Bankrupcty and PSA backstabbing.

One lesson I hoped all of you at Envoy would have learned after the March 2014 disaster was that there are always pilots. ALWAYS, one way or another.

More importantly, never underestimate a Regional pilot's propensity for making lateral moves. Republic is about to become the single biggest source of pilots for all the other Regionals in 2016. Never mind places like Commutair, Silver, and even a healthy dose from Expressjet/ASA.

There are thousands of pilots flying props on the backside of the clock in the part 135 world who make the leap over to the 121 side every day. Then on top of that you have Envoy's pipeline instructor program which has over 20 Universities and counting.

Point is, the "nobody can staff it" argument needs to die a painful death.

All that you said is true - so long as those pilots meet he minimums to be hired. In the case of lateral moves it's not a problem, but banking on lateral movement isn't a sure thing. There's probably enough people to fill most of the vacancies appearing next year, but unless we start using the "bottom of the barrel" hiring practices that some of the other carriers are accused of, it's going to be tough to fill them all.

This, of course, doesn't assume that AAG is planning on continuing to shrink Envoy and give away the aircraft that were temporarily pulled from the desert or withheld from transfer to other carriers. Or potential mergers.

There's a lot at play here. It's not as simple as 800 hires at AA = 400 flows = 400 upgrades = 400 new hires.

and a BS'er too. In another thread, someone asked the recruiting office the 800 hiring RUMOR at AA next year and well, they haven't heard either. I have asked my sources and sure thing the company hasn't mentioned it.


But wait, its friday! Maybe the announcement will be made today..


Good Luck!

They may be doing 68% but its still less than 20/mo. The average for the YEAR is only 14/mo.

Thinking they will ever go over 30/mo is crazy. Won't happen.

Actually seems to me like the "nobody can staff it argument" is playing out exactly as forecast.

Let's see.

PSA can't staff our CRJs

Someone can't staff out ERJs

Republic can't staff the 175s, to what extent hasn't even been made public yet.

This whole pilot shortage thing doesn't actually get better anytime soon, it gets exponentially worse, so your only seeing just the tip.

The entire landscape will change dramatically in the next 5 years. And planes will go unstaffed, American thinks they have it figured out with the whole pipeline thing, meanwhile united and delta have been hiring 100 a month and will continue to, which outpaces growth and retirements (they're front loading talent). Which American can't even do to the same extent because of training center limitations and flow through commitments.

Things are going to change, and they don't have it figured out yet.

Hehehehe :D

Well they have to do a min of 50%. They can withhold any month to 30 or 50% (whichever is less), but end of year has to be 50%.

So if AA hires 800 next year. The min avg per month from envoy is 33.3pilots/month

Corporate sell out? Naa. Just using the company kitchen with the help of mid level managers to manufacture a witches brew of Kool Aid. Said Kool Aid dispensed eagerly and often to the masses via electronic medium.

The travesty? ALPA is buying the Kool Aid on the side by the tractor trailer load and is dispensing. Just in a different format.

By the way, for those out there searching for the Fountain of Youth, the tide is turning.

Read it again. They don't have to ever go over 30. It says "best efforts" to get 50% over time. We all know that means they absolutely will not do it. 30 will be the max. If that even happens.. Unlikely.

If it causes disruption to the operation, you know well damn sure they will send the minimum. Just like they are doing now and the foreseeable future...



Good Luck!

PSA isn't having an issue staffing yet. But I think we will in 2016 if something doesn't change to attract new hires beyond a "quick upgrade" which will slow and fade soon.

Why are you not getting the Envoy CRJ's at the rate you were promised?

We aren't, but I could care less. Keep em. We didn't ask for them. They are probably going to make us park the 200s in the end anyway. I don't know how we, or any other regional airline is going to be able to staff in the next few years so I don't think any of it matters. And our management currently seems to be working against any meaningful increase in our SSP which is probably the only thing they could realistically use to keep us staffed while other airlines pay more. So we aren't having a problem now, but give it a year. Your airline is likely going to see increased flying and increased numbers of 175s showing up on property. Not to mention your vastly superior flow (which whether it works or not is a helluva tool for getting new hires on property).

It already is slowing and fading for those that walk in the door now. They just don't know it yet. The "quick upgrades" were for those already on the property and those that threw their hat in at the beginning of the rush. Maybe it'll go for a little longer, but not much.

You probably don't care, but that's not the case for your peers. They must be still thinking that 35 Envoy CR7s will get there next year.

AAG won't be saying anything publicly because they don't want the people stop going to PSA.

The tide is....


Good Luck!

I'm not saying they won't still transfer your 7's... But it might be at the cost of our 2's. Which benefits no one, except AAG. Not you, not us. I've been in the 121 world now for just shy of a year, and it has been eye opening. Management everywhere is going to have to change the way they treat and deal with pilot groups if they want to survive. And too many are still trying to use the old playbook to their own detriment. Like cutting off their nose to spite their face. We've got a lot more FOs bailing or thinking of bailing for greener pastures. There are a lot of options out there right now for qualified pilots. Too many other options to sit around and be frustrated and treated like crap.

I'd like to btch slap a PSA Pilot that is "frustrated". They have no freaking idea. Ohh no, reserve for 2 whole months? Upgrade could be a whole year?? OMG!! How horrible!

Sickening.

Sorry, but PSA made their own bed. You've been in the part 121 world shy of a year? So you know everything about it huh?

Eye opening? Well let me tell you something, things will not change in PSA until they really start hurting pilots. The "flow, interview or whatever" will not be more than 4, unless there's a trade out for something. Maybe the SSP, maybe shrinking a bit the airline.

AAG can't let you guys get everything for free. We told PSA to hold the line, they did not listened. Now they start being frustrated?

We've been stagnating for 4 years and 2 of them it was because of PSA. Don't get your hopes up, but things will not change, because they need you guys more than us. Why? Because is cheaper to upgrade a 1-2 yr PSA FO to fly a 900, than a 7yr FO at envoy to fly a e-140/145.

Things will not change in PSA until you guys start to be expensive. Now it's cheap, maybe in 3-6 years will change. Why do you think Envoy this year it's being 68% of the AA classes?

Simple math...

18 CA a month that makes over 100k that flows into AA = $1,800,000 in savings a year. Now multiply that by 11... = 19,800,000$ AVG they saved just flowing envoy pilots.

I love when people try to bash airlines and talk tough, yet they can't speak English to save their life.

Much more than 4 years..

9/11, flowbacks.. Then losing all the Saab's, then age 65 in 2008, then closing BOS, closing LAX to give to Skypest (now Compass), losing all the E135's. Then losing 1/3 of ORD to Republic, Then Losing the ATR's, then closing SJU, then losing more 140's.

Then Parker, WalmartAir and PSA came along and really F-d us over good, when we already had terms with AA and a bankruptcy agreement, they gave away 99 more aircraft, gave our 700's to the new version of scabs, sorry wrong word, people will freak out.. Excuse me, how about just scum, 145's are being given away to PDT, TSA and Xjet, our main operation DFW is now infiltrated by Mesa's embarrasing trash service, then they just gave away two more major domiciles, MIA, and NYC.

Other companies can't handle all the flying the morons gave away from us so here we are.. Down from 7 MAJOR bases and 3200 pilots to 2 bases and 2000 pilots. WAY overstaffed with 700 people on reserve. Lines worth 60 hours or zero time and part time lines. Then other carriers doing the feed we use to do are cancelling due to no staffing.. And we are having to try and cover it anyway.