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Originally Posted by daOldMan
(Post 2174842)
Why are you lying to him? Just be honest.
No, the 6 year flow is not true at all. Even AAG and Envoy management stopped quoting those numbers. Flow is at least 10 years. How is AAG doing with the flow numbers right now? Are you flowing 30 per month, as you expected to? And what happens with the first group is gone? The flow drops to 35% of new hire classes. Which will take you over 15 years to flow at that point. Shouldn't Charlie Bucket be a Captain by now? And he is still on reserve as a FO. That is the truth. You comment to "MOON" about throwing your gear really shows what a tool you really are. Why don't you crawl back under your Dash 8 rock that you came from.
Originally Posted by Skyvector
(Post 2174904)
Moon's numbers are correct. Not sure what else you want.
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Originally Posted by Lvlng4Spd
(Post 2174973)
Good Luck!
Whether we see 30 flows a month for the remainder of this year is yet to be seen but even if we don't, it will still be 4 or 5 times more flow-throughs each month than are coming from PDT. Actually, now I understand your bitterness. How are you guys enjoying our old beat up E145s? |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2175087)
Wow, you PDT guys are really coming out from the woodwork aren't you? Are you guys really so scared about envoy and it's flow?
Whether we see 30 flows a month for the remainder of this year is yet to be seen but even if we don't, it will still be 4 or 5 times more flow-throughs each month than are coming from PDT. Actually, now I understand your bitterness. How are you guys enjoying our old beat up E145s? |
Although I would like to point out that piedmont is still flowing pilots even though they are paying 300% to pilots. So I'm hoping that is a precedent that American keeps. Continue flowing during times of short staffing .
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Originally Posted by Jack Russell
(Post 2175203)
I understand Envoy has about 2000 pilots and if accurate, for a 6 year path to AA, Envoy would have to flow about 28 pilots every month for 6 years for a pilot hired today at Envoy. Has that metric been consistently achieved so far ?
As for numbers, considering the substantial difference in pilot head count between the 3 wholly-owned's feeding AA, it's not the numbers that should be used to compare flow rates, but the percentages relative to the respective pilot group count. AA is recalling pilots. They don't have to take any flow through's during this time, but they have been. The return of recalls is a known event and not something that's suddenly taken us by surprise. We were sending 25-30/month prior, have been sending 10ish/month during (when they weren't even required to send any), and will likely go back to 30/month once the recalls are done this fall (except December, when AA doesn't run new-hire classes). As for your numbers, assuming a 2000 pilot group, with the top 400 not flowing, 1600/72(months) = 22/month necessary for a 6 year flow. This doesn't include anybody hired to airlines other then the flow. I can't even give a projection on that number, but considering we keep hearing the phrase "keep the flow in your back pocket while you apply elsewhere" I'd say the percentage of those going elsewhere before their flow number comes up is high as well, which in turn brings that necessary 22/month down even lower. |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2175087)
Wow, you PDT guys are really coming out from the woodwork aren't you? Are you guys really so scared about envoy and it's flow?
Whether we see 30 flows a month for the remainder of this year is yet to be seen but even if we don't, it will still be 4 or 5 times more flow-throughs each month than are coming from PDT. Actually, now I understand your bitterness. How are you guys enjoying our old beat up E145s? For the record, you have 2000 pilots. You are flowing about 1.2-1.5% of your group monthly on average. PDT has about 450 pilots, and when we reach 475 pilots, we will be flowing 1.1-1.3% of the group on average. Put your dong away, it's not "4 to 5 times" bigger. |
Agreed that Piedmont and Envoy have similar flow #s. maybe not size wise, but percentage wise. Envoy's is a little bigger now but will slow as the different groups move on. We have 1850 pilots now, not sure how many are active.
Anyway, Numbers for the year 30 - Jan 29 - Feb 30 - Mar 30 - Apr Recalls Started in May 8 - May 12 - Jun 13 - Jul August #'s are unknown at this point, but will be the last month for Recalls, OTS hires start in September, barring a slowdown in hiring Envoy should be at the 30 per month. I think Envoy should be pushing for the 50% of new hires vs 30, but doubt it will happen. |
Originally Posted by Jack Russell
(Post 2175218)
No interest in arguing and please refrain from inflaming the situation with insults this time.
I understand what you're saying about Envoy flowing when they don't have to, but in order for the 6 year claim to be valid, it has to be compared against something. That's all I was doing. I've heard a lower number of non-flowing senior pilots, something like 250-300 and indeed some pilots will leave Envoy before flowing, so yes a lessor number per month required to flow to meet such a projection is likely occur, but also things could occur that stops the flow entirely or slows it substantially in the future as well. Has that situation happened yet ? In fact, it has. Envoy was slated to flow something like 350 this year, but it will be substantially less and the fact they have chosen to flow some to the US Airways side when they didn't have to doesn't change that. The future holds no promises. That 350 # of flows was always known to be a pipe dream, because they were not taking into account the recalls. |
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