Well you are right, we are losing 17 a month to outside attrition on the year. So management will need to bring in 10 more new hires a month. Which if the flow works and a bump in pay isn't hard to imagine.

For your math to work at 6 years, you need to flow 30 a month. That is what the 6 years was based on.

If you lose 30 to the flow, and 17 to outside attrition, you need to be realistically hiring close to 60 a month, or 30 every two weeks. Forever.

Outside attrition should increase to at least 25 a month fairly soon, provided that you have a motivated pilot group that wants to go elsewhere.

Are you even able to hire 30 a month now?

That's not what the numbers are based on. 30 for the remainder of 824. 25 for protected. 15 for bankruptcy kids. And the variable # for post signing. Current pilot group size would be 14.
Everyone knows management has work cut out for them that is no secret. How they address it is so far. Last month I believe was 22 so there is work to be done you are right on that. I'm optimistic they take the correct actions in increasing their new hires. Getting rid of longer longevity pilots helps them too so it pays off in the end to increase recruiting.

Here are some #s.

286 pilots left to flow at 30/ month = 9 and a half months.
886 protected pilots at 25/month = 35 and a half months.
165 bankruptcy at 15/month = 11 months
215 post signing at 14/month = 15 and a half months.

Adding that up comes to.........6 years on the nose.

But none of those things are happening.

And the protected pilots are flowing at 25/month IF what happens? What is the trigger for that? Envoy guys love to leave that part out.

Moon's numbers are correct. Not sure what else you want. It is all very much happening. AA finished up recalling pilots this summer, which is the only reason why we didn't flow 30/month during the summer months, but we knew about that well ahead of time. Before the summer we were flowing 30/month and in September we will resume 30/month as planned.

The only thing that was unexpected was the fact that we flowed anybody at all during summer. Originally the word was that the flow would pause for 3 months. Instead AA continued to flow Envoy pilots to the US Airways side at a rate of 20/month give or take. So we are actually ahead of where we thought we would be before summer.

Oh dude seriously

Everyone knew the twa furlough would have to shat or get up at some point that's this summer. Aa USAir have the oldest pilot group. Once Sept Oct hit you'll see the 824 finish up by next May at 30/mo

Last Union update said we most likely will not resume flowing at 30 a month after September. Add that into AA operating new hire classes larger than 60 a month this fall and we will be falling further behind.........again.

The 40th emb175 triggers a percentage change and nothing else. Prior to the 40th the protected pilot agreement is in effect so 35% or 25. After the 40th its 50% or 25. No change in minimum. I'm all for a debate just wish you would grab some facts instead of rumors.

The email said. There are 34 in the pool which is greater than the 25 two weeks ago and that they hope it means an increase. No predictions in there.