The numbers do work. And they are reasonable. (The upgrade projections, not so much) They are dependent on new hire numbers but that is true of any company's upgrade/progression times.

AAG/envoy has already demonstrated that they are willing to increase pilot compensation in order to achieve higher attraction and retention numbers. Of course the pilots and ALPA believe though incentives are inadequate but at least AAG has shown that they will do so. I believe we will continue to see increased efforts to attract pilots, whether it be monetary, QOL improvements or adjustments to the flow, but it will likely never be as much as we would like to see. AAG has the resources, it is just a matter of them feeling that it is needed.

The industry as a whole will be very different in a few years than it is today. How it will change is anyone's guess. Overall though, I think we, collectively, as airline pilots will be in a much better place. All other things being equal, choosing to go to an airline will flow as opposed to one without, affords you an additional opportunity (a back up plan) that you wouldn't have otherwise. As an envoy pilot, you can still apply, interview and get hired just like everyone else. And many do. It is like taking a little extra gas. 100 times you don't need it, but that one time you do, it can make all the difference in the world.

If the minimum allowed # of flows is followed. Then around 6 years is correct, probably a little less for new hires as of now based on the low hiring number overy the last year. Once the after signing group gets started it's about 10% of the pilot group per year flowing over so similar to piedmonts. But this is all based on the faith that management allows those #s to flow over. Some trust others dont.

Technically, one could do exactly as management says. However, they advertised 300+ flows last year, they made the same prediction this year. We have flowed just over 300 total for over the same time span according to a recent message from the union.

Source:
So when the projections for 2015/16 were well north of 600 and they have just scraped past 300 you can see there is a cause for concern.

I would like to think they could do as they say. I would also like to think we could get new hires enough to keep things moving forward. If there are other tricks up their sleeves to make their promises true, they sure as hell aren't telling us.

Why are you lying to him? Just be honest.

No, the 6 year flow is not true at all. Even AAG and Envoy management stopped quoting those numbers. Flow is at least 10 years.

How is AAG doing with the flow numbers right now? Are you flowing 30 per month, as you expected to?

And what happens with the first group is gone? The flow drops to 35% of new hire classes. Which will take you over 15 years to flow at that point.

Shouldn't Charlie Bucket be a Captain by now? And he is still on reserve as a FO. That is the truth.

I agree the flow hasn't worked as advertised so fsr. However they are finally out of excuses for it to not work. The recalls will be finished in september. The judgement should come with how they treat the flow after that point at a critical staffing situation. If they flow less than required. We will see their long plan game plan. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Also let's see that 15 year math. That's such a blanket lie the rest of your post holds little water.

If they flow the number that they are "required to", then you will be parking airplanes. Do you think that AAG will allow that to happen?

For the first group of pilots, maybe - since it was an award won in arbitration. After that?

Then there will be arbitration again. Contract is pretty black and white. Whether they follow it is anyone's guess. The number of new hires we are getting is greater than the required flows for the after signing group (approx 14 at current pilot group size) so shrinkage isn't necessary.

Are you forgetting about any outside attrition?

Is no one leaving for anywhere except the flow to mainline? Aren't Envoy pilots going to United, Delta, Southwest, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS, or anywhere else?