Envoy Flow #'s
08-06-2016, 06:29 AM
#91
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 687
Agreed that Piedmont and Envoy have similar flow #s. maybe not size wise, but percentage wise. Envoy's is a little bigger now but will slow as the different groups move on. We have 1850 pilots now, not sure how many are active.
Anyway,
Numbers for the year
30 - Jan
29 - Feb
30 - Mar
30 - Apr
Recalls Started in May
8 - May
12 - Jun
13 - Jul
August #'s are unknown at this point, but will be the last month for Recalls, OTS hires start in September, barring a slowdown in hiring Envoy should be at the 30 per month.
I think Envoy should be pushing for the 50% of new hires vs 30, but doubt it will happen.
Anyway,
Numbers for the year
30 - Jan
29 - Feb
30 - Mar
30 - Apr
Recalls Started in May
8 - May
12 - Jun
13 - Jul
August #'s are unknown at this point, but will be the last month for Recalls, OTS hires start in September, barring a slowdown in hiring Envoy should be at the 30 per month.
I think Envoy should be pushing for the 50% of new hires vs 30, but doubt it will happen.
08-06-2016, 06:38 AM
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 687
Originally Posted by Jack Russell
No interest in arguing and please refrain from inflaming the situation with insults this time.
I understand what you're saying about Envoy flowing when they don't have to, but in order for the 6 year claim to be valid, it has to be compared against something. That's all I was doing. I've heard a lower number of non-flowing senior pilots, something like 250-300 and indeed some pilots will leave Envoy before flowing, so yes a lessor number per month required to flow to meet such a projection is likely occur, but also things could occur that stops the flow entirely or slows it substantially in the future as well. Has that situation happened yet ?
In fact, it has. Envoy was slated to flow something like 350 this year, but it will be substantially less and the fact they have chosen to flow some to the US Airways side when they didn't have to doesn't change that. The future holds no promises.
I understand what you're saying about Envoy flowing when they don't have to, but in order for the 6 year claim to be valid, it has to be compared against something. That's all I was doing. I've heard a lower number of non-flowing senior pilots, something like 250-300 and indeed some pilots will leave Envoy before flowing, so yes a lessor number per month required to flow to meet such a projection is likely occur, but also things could occur that stops the flow entirely or slows it substantially in the future as well. Has that situation happened yet ?
In fact, it has. Envoy was slated to flow something like 350 this year, but it will be substantially less and the fact they have chosen to flow some to the US Airways side when they didn't have to doesn't change that. The future holds no promises.
That 350 # of flows was always known to be a pipe dream, because they were not taking into account the recalls.
08-06-2016, 06:43 AM
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 416
Originally Posted by Jack Russell
No interest in arguing and please refrain from inflaming the situation with insults this time.
I understand what you're saying about Envoy flowing when they don't have to, but in order for the 6 year claim to be valid, it has to be compared against something. That's all I was doing. I've heard a lower number of non-flowing senior pilots, something like 250-300 and indeed some pilots will leave Envoy before flowing, so yes a lessor number per month required to flow to meet such a projection is likely occur, but also things could occur that stops the flow entirely or slows it substantially in the future as well. Has that situation happened yet ?
In fact, it has. Envoy was slated to flow something like 350 this year, but it will be substantially less and the fact they have chosen to flow some to the US Airways side when they didn't have to doesn't change that. The future holds no promises.
I understand what you're saying about Envoy flowing when they don't have to, but in order for the 6 year claim to be valid, it has to be compared against something. That's all I was doing. I've heard a lower number of non-flowing senior pilots, something like 250-300 and indeed some pilots will leave Envoy before flowing, so yes a lessor number per month required to flow to meet such a projection is likely occur, but also things could occur that stops the flow entirely or slows it substantially in the future as well. Has that situation happened yet ?
In fact, it has. Envoy was slated to flow something like 350 this year, but it will be substantially less and the fact they have chosen to flow some to the US Airways side when they didn't have to doesn't change that. The future holds no promises.
Nobody has said anything about promises of 6 year flow, only projections. The only ones who say there are promises are those who say others say it! If something occurs that stops the flow entirely, I would put it on more of a world event or economic crisis...in which case I would want to be staying put anyway, rather then being at the bottom of a new seniority list. Additionally, a situation like that would affect the entire industry, not just flow through's.
08-06-2016, 06:49 AM
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 416
Just to add onto my previous response...can you guess when the projected flow date was for me when I got hired? That's right, there wasn't one. Times sure have changed and certainly for the better. If I were in my 20's again and was told I could expect to be at the largest airline in the world in 6 years, you better believe I would be choosing to come here. And if it took me 8 years to get there rather then 6? Bid deal! I'm in this career for the long haul (no pun intended.)
08-06-2016, 07:38 AM
#95
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2013
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 501
I honestly don't know if 6 year flow is attainable or not. I don't think anyone can honestly say, hence the bait. Lots of argument is based on the letter T deferrals. However, the question to ask is what was the flow doing BEFORE these guys started coming back to AA? That, I think, is an indicator as to what will most likely happen and will happen for any projection. So the way I see it, something has to change in order for this goal to be achieved. Also asking for change from AAG is like asking a lawyer for a pay cut.
The flow numbers have been consistent. However consistently off to meet the 6 year goal, according to math. My point is there has been opportunity to flow more to help meet this goal, yet corporation didn't do it. That is where some hatred stems from, promises have been made to the pilot group and were deliberately broken. Judge by what they do, not what they say.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The flow numbers have been consistent. However consistently off to meet the 6 year goal, according to math. My point is there has been opportunity to flow more to help meet this goal, yet corporation didn't do it. That is where some hatred stems from, promises have been made to the pilot group and were deliberately broken. Judge by what they do, not what they say.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
08-06-2016, 09:37 AM
#96
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Position: Feito no Brasil, CA
Posts: 833
It all depends on two things working correctly and the associated tasks.
1 - hiring new people and getting butts in seats.
2 - upgrading people in a timely manner.
These two things are in the control of the airline. Economic issues, national security issues...those are outside the airline's control for the most part.
Now, there are a boatload of tangential issues associated with #1. Corporate culture, compensation, the public opinion that potential employees see, and the current state of the airline. There's a lot of work to be done on these things before people make this place a top choice when they send out resumes.
1 - hiring new people and getting butts in seats.
2 - upgrading people in a timely manner.
These two things are in the control of the airline. Economic issues, national security issues...those are outside the airline's control for the most part.
Now, there are a boatload of tangential issues associated with #1. Corporate culture, compensation, the public opinion that potential employees see, and the current state of the airline. There's a lot of work to be done on these things before people make this place a top choice when they send out resumes.
08-06-2016, 01:12 PM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 416
Originally Posted by Jack Russell
It looks like we have different ideas about what a "projection" is. I consider it a future consideration usually based on the most positive assumptions that usually does NOT occur. It sounds as though you consider it a likelihood that is almost certain to occur barring the most unlikely situations. As for your final assertion and on that thought, there are multiple situations that could affect the flow that only involve AA, Envoy or all the wholly-owned's or both that would not impact affecting the world, the U.S. domestically or the airline industry.
Obviously, you're in for the duration there and that's gone, but others are not by virtue of their avoidance of Envoy or their abandonment of it for other non-legacy pilot positions.
Obviously, you're in for the duration there and that's gone, but others are not by virtue of their avoidance of Envoy or their abandonment of it for other non-legacy pilot positions.
If you want to base your projections on the worst case scenario, then by all means go for it. But if you're going to base them off of likely scenarios, then please provide numbers. I think a good place to start is looking at the mandatory retirements at AA alone that will require new-hire classes to be running well more then United and Delta in the coming years. A second place to look would be the flow aggrements and the amount each WO will be flowing (and how those numbers are derived). A third place would be to look at the size of each flowing pilot group. If you're projection is based solely on the fact that you think all those flow aggrements will be violated, well then you're on your own with that one!
08-06-2016, 01:16 PM
#98
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 91
Originally Posted by Jack Russell
It looks like we have different ideas about what a "projection" is. I consider it a future consideration usually based on the most positive assumptions that usually does NOT occur. It sounds as though you consider it a likelihood that is almost certain to occur barring the most unlikely situations. As for your final assertion and on that thought, there are multiple situations that could affect the flow that only involve AA, Envoy or all the wholly-owned's or both that would not impact affecting the world, the U.S. domestically or the airline industry.
Obviously, you're in for the duration there and that's fine, but others are not by virtue of their avoidance of Envoy or their abandonment of it for other non-legacy pilot positions.
Obviously, you're in for the duration there and that's fine, but others are not by virtue of their avoidance of Envoy or their abandonment of it for other non-legacy pilot positions.
The one thing I don't hear anything you guys talking about is, who is going to come in behind you in those first officer and captain positions? We used to hire 50 or 60 first officers each month. I can tell you from my experience that they are not going to shut down the company just so all of you guys can flow. The mathematics may show that you can flow all the pilots in the company in 5 years. But if you hire only 20 new hires each month the flow cannot happen as you speak to.
The times are different today for sure. One thing though I see that is still the same is the company likes to tell you the best outcome for you but the chances of it happening are not good.
08-06-2016, 01:34 PM
#99
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Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
"Envoy's arbitrated flows will continue to flow and once their gone, about 10% of the pilot group going forward... All the WO's will have the same relative flow eventually". What I heard from someone in management at a WO.
08-06-2016, 03:07 PM
#100
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Posts: 206
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
"Envoy's arbitrated flows will continue to flow and once their gone, about 10% of the pilot group going forward... All the WO's will have the same relative flow eventually". What I heard from someone in management at a WO.
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