Envoy Flow #'s
08-05-2016, 12:11 PM
#61
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Posts: 687
Originally Posted by daOldMan
Why are you lying to him? Just be honest.
No, the 6 year flow is not true at all. Even AAG and Envoy management stopped quoting those numbers. Flow is at least 10 years.
How is AAG doing with the flow numbers right now? Are you flowing 30 per month, as you expected to?
And what happens with the first group is gone? The flow drops to 35% of new hire classes. Which will take you over 15 years to flow at that point.
Shouldn't Charlie Bucket be a Captain by now? And he is still on reserve as a FO. That is the truth.
No, the 6 year flow is not true at all. Even AAG and Envoy management stopped quoting those numbers. Flow is at least 10 years.
How is AAG doing with the flow numbers right now? Are you flowing 30 per month, as you expected to?
And what happens with the first group is gone? The flow drops to 35% of new hire classes. Which will take you over 15 years to flow at that point.
Shouldn't Charlie Bucket be a Captain by now? And he is still on reserve as a FO. That is the truth.
08-05-2016, 12:12 PM
#62
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 699
Originally Posted by moon
I agree the flow hasn't worked as advertised so fsr. However they are finally out of excuses for it to not work. The recalls will be finished in september. The judgement should come with how they treat the flow after that point at a critical staffing situation. If they flow less than required. We will see their long plan game plan. I'm cautiously optimistic.
For the first group of pilots, maybe - since it was an award won in arbitration. After that?
08-05-2016, 12:18 PM
#63
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Originally Posted by daOldMan
If they flow the number that they are "required to", then you will be parking airplanes. Do you think that AAG will allow that to happen?
For the first group of pilots, maybe - since it was an award won in arbitration. After that?
For the first group of pilots, maybe - since it was an award won in arbitration. After that?
08-05-2016, 12:24 PM
#64
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Originally Posted by moon
Then there will be arbitration again. Contract is pretty black and white. Whether they follow it is anyone's guess. The number of new hires we are getting is greater than the required flows for the after signing group (approx 14 at current pilot group size) so shrinkage isn't necessary.
Is no one leaving for anywhere except the flow to mainline? Aren't Envoy pilots going to United, Delta, Southwest, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS, or anywhere else?
08-05-2016, 12:30 PM
#65
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Originally Posted by daOldMan
Are you forgetting about any outside attrition?
Is no one leaving for anywhere except the flow to mainline? Aren't Envoy pilots going to United, Delta, Southwest, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS, or anywhere else?
Is no one leaving for anywhere except the flow to mainline? Aren't Envoy pilots going to United, Delta, Southwest, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS, or anywhere else?
08-05-2016, 12:34 PM
#66
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Originally Posted by moon
Well you are right, we are losing 17 a month to outside attrition on the year. So management will need to bring in 10 more new hires a month. Which if the flow works and a bump in pay isn't hard to imagine.
If you lose 30 to the flow, and 17 to outside attrition, you need to be realistically hiring close to 60 a month, or 30 every two weeks. Forever.
Outside attrition should increase to at least 25 a month fairly soon, provided that you have a motivated pilot group that wants to go elsewhere.
Are you even able to hire 30 a month now?
08-05-2016, 12:41 PM
#67
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Originally Posted by daOldMan
For your math to work at 6 years, you need to flow 30 a month. That is what the 6 years was based on.
If you lose 30 to the flow, and 17 to outside attrition, you need to be realistically hiring close to 60 a month, or 30 every two weeks. Forever.
Outside attrition should increase to at least 25 a month fairly soon, provided that you have a motivated pilot group that wants to go elsewhere.
Are you even able to hire 30 a month now?
If you lose 30 to the flow, and 17 to outside attrition, you need to be realistically hiring close to 60 a month, or 30 every two weeks. Forever.
Outside attrition should increase to at least 25 a month fairly soon, provided that you have a motivated pilot group that wants to go elsewhere.
Are you even able to hire 30 a month now?
Everyone knows management has work cut out for them that is no secret. How they address it is so far. Last month I believe was 22 so there is work to be done you are right on that. I'm optimistic they take the correct actions in increasing their new hires. Getting rid of longer longevity pilots helps them too so it pays off in the end to increase recruiting.
08-05-2016, 01:21 PM
#68
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Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 687
Here are some #s.
286 pilots left to flow at 30/ month = 9 and a half months.
886 protected pilots at 25/month = 35 and a half months.
165 bankruptcy at 15/month = 11 months
215 post signing at 14/month = 15 and a half months.
Adding that up comes to.........6 years on the nose.
286 pilots left to flow at 30/ month = 9 and a half months.
886 protected pilots at 25/month = 35 and a half months.
165 bankruptcy at 15/month = 11 months
215 post signing at 14/month = 15 and a half months.
Adding that up comes to.........6 years on the nose.
08-05-2016, 01:29 PM
#69
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Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 699
Originally Posted by moon
Here are some #s.
286 pilots left to flow at 30/ month = 9 and a half months.
886 protected pilots at 25/month = 35 and a half months.
165 bankruptcy at 15/month = 11 months
215 post signing at 14/month = 15 and a half months.
Adding that up comes to.........6 years on the nose.
286 pilots left to flow at 30/ month = 9 and a half months.
886 protected pilots at 25/month = 35 and a half months.
165 bankruptcy at 15/month = 11 months
215 post signing at 14/month = 15 and a half months.
Adding that up comes to.........6 years on the nose.
And the protected pilots are flowing at 25/month IF what happens? What is the trigger for that? Envoy guys love to leave that part out.
08-05-2016, 01:36 PM
#70
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Posts: 787
Originally Posted by daOldMan
But none of those things are happening.
And the protected pilots are flowing at 25/month IF what happens? What is the trigger for that? Envoy guys love to leave that part out.
And the protected pilots are flowing at 25/month IF what happens? What is the trigger for that? Envoy guys love to leave that part out.
The only thing that was unexpected was the fact that we flowed anybody at all during summer. Originally the word was that the flow would pause for 3 months. Instead AA continued to flow Envoy pilots to the US Airways side at a rate of 20/month give or take. So we are actually ahead of where we thought we would be before summer.
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