Originally Posted by Itsajob

Who consolidates with who? According to a quick Google search, there about 340 aircraft(+some 550’s) in the 50 seat fleet. SkyWest has about 1/3 of them, while Air Wisconsin, CommutAir, and Expressjet all exclusively fly 50 seaters and collectively operate the rest. There are also about 250 aircraft that are 70+ seats, many of which are owned by a regional airline, and not United. If the 50 seat fleet is on the chopping block, why have consolidation among the exclusive operators? Why would others absorb equipment and people who are slated to be cut? United has invested money in companies like Expressjet, but if their fleet is not long for this world, would it be cheaper to write that investment off or to transfer United owned big rj’s to a company that they made a prior investment in? Kirby has repeatedly said that the 50 seat flying will be almost gone, a thing of the past, or have a significant reduction. If the company decides to practically eliminate a fleet type that makes up over half of the total hulls, how do you consolidate companies when half of the crews will no longer be needed? Outside of bankruptcy, they aren’t going to get scope relief, until things return to normal I don’t see United even entertaining the idea of purchasing a new 100 seat fleet type, and if they are still not interested in 100 seaters, they definitely won’t want mainline 76 seaters. I’m looking at this as an outsider or from a management perspective, not as a pilot with skin in the game. How does it work?

Originally Posted by piloto2

Would they favor one that they already hive a financial stake in or would they possibly keep two around for some competition (whipsaw)?

Originally Posted by DBono

There's also the aircraft ownership picture. According to the UA 2019 annual report,
https://ir.united.com/static-files/1...c-d0e4d407f9cf page 23,
as of end Dec 2019, UA was operating 175 ERJ-175s, 168s of which they own (the other 7 were owned by TSA, so those are off the list of UA planes now). At the same time, they were "operating" 133 CRJ-200s, 70 owned by SKW and 63 owned by AWAC.

Seems like they'd be more inclined to use the airplanes they already own vs parking those and paying for someone else's planes to be flown. What we don't know is the duration and strength of the contracts UA has with AWAC and SKW for the -200s.

Originally Posted by ReadOnly7

Park the 145s
Round up all the UAL-owned 175s and bring them in-house
Merge C5 and XJT
Staple that ist to the UAL list.

All one happy family, no 50-seaters, no scope relief.

Originally Posted by Jonneaux

If that happened, all of the C5 and XJT pilots would end up furloughed as United pilots flushed back into the 175.

Originally Posted by TFAYD

a lot of the SKYW contracts for 200 flying for UA are short-term - maybe 2-3 years with renewal options. They will be gone for sure. But SKYW operates some 30 or so EAS routes under the UA brand with 200’s that will likely remain.

and as FYI - UAX total 70/76 fleet is 255 aircraft. The difference of 80 aircraft are owned by SKYW and Mesa.

Originally Posted by Tpinks

I think he meant to say 145’s not 175’s. Because at republic, only 12 United planes are owned by United, the rest of the 175’s and 170’s are Republic owned.

Originally Posted by watch

I'm going to bet on commutair, xjt, and air whisky closing shop and furloughing all employees. Republic and Skywest will furlough a large percentage of their force.

This will be at the same time the major airlines furlough 2-3k pilots each as well.

Furloughs called back to the majors by 2024-2025. Hiring beginning then as well from existing regional airlines. Current XJT and C5 pilots will not have any flying opportunities until Skywest, Republic, Mesa, etc a) recall all their furloughed employees and b) lose enough employees to attrition from major airline hiring.

So, probably 7-8 years.

This is all just a WAG.