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Will ExpressJet survive this?

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Old 04-10-2020, 09:15 PM
  #191  
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Originally Posted by StuckOnReserve View Post
I don’t doubt that Mesa is getting them. Your CEO decided to leverage the company with debt to get them. And in United’s eye it was the best financial decision to award them to Mesa under the circumstances.

I’m just correcting your misrepresentation of the fact. You haven’t bought them. Your employer hasn’t either. They are on someone else’s order. Your employer will not be taking delivery of them starting in May, doing so would be economically stupid.

Also the 550 project has been put on hold so the 700’s that Mesa was going to take out of service to be converted into the 550’s won’t be leaving the line for a while. Which also means there isn’t much room left under the scope.

It takes cash to pay for Shiny New Jets. With UAL’s traffic down 60+%. Mesa isn’t getting the flights it needs for revenue to pay the current bills, and with the 700’s not going out on lease Mesa definitely doesn’t have the cash to pay for the new 175s.

And I don’t doubt Mesa is conducting interviews, XJT is too.

And stop say “We” like you have a part in the process. You don’t those decisions are made way above your pay grade.


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Mesa has cash, we’ve spent the last year trying to buy European carriers for some reason, Flybe and Adria.
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:31 PM
  #192  
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Originally Posted by StartUp161WanaB View Post
i don’t think RPA is partially owned by United.



XJT and C5 are for sure
Republic is partially owned by all of the big 3.
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:58 PM
  #193  
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Originally Posted by StuckOnReserve View Post
I don’t doubt that Mesa is getting them. Your CEO decided to leverage the company with debt to get them. And in United’s eye it was the best financial decision to award them to Mesa under the circumstances.

I’m just correcting your misrepresentation of the fact. You haven’t bought them. Your employer hasn’t either. They are on someone else’s order. Your employer will not be taking delivery of them starting in May, doing so would be economically stupid.

Also the 550 project has been put on hold so the 700’s that Mesa was going to take out of service to be converted into the 550’s won’t be leaving the line for a while. Which also means there isn’t much room left under the scope.

It takes cash to pay for Shiny New Jets. With UAL’s traffic down 60+%. Mesa isn’t getting the flights it needs for revenue to pay the current bills, and with the 700’s not going out on lease Mesa definitely doesn’t have the cash to pay for the new 175s.

And I don’t doubt Mesa is conducting interviews, XJT is too.

And stop say “We” like you have a part in the process. You don’t those decisions are made way above your pay grade.


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Let me correct you kindly, "I" meaning me; do have a "part" in the process. They pay me to help interview. So it is in my pay grade. You are correct in the fact of hitting a snag with the 700's but it's just that a snag. Hopefully it works out.I am not in our accounting department so I have no real idea what Mesa can and can't do financially, you seem to know our financials well over here. I will tell you this we are moving ahead internally and planning on growth. I know XJT is conducting interviews, that makes me happy. I wish I could say the same for other regionals, but I know some places may be struggling in October.
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Old 04-11-2020, 05:24 AM
  #194  
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Originally Posted by Redheadtexas View Post
550 parts have gone way up in price since They come out of japan now? Correct me if I got that wrong.
What 550 parts have gone up? Seriously where did up come up with this?
Not one part comes from Japan. Canada or the US..
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:33 AM
  #195  
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Originally Posted by BRJPilot View Post
Consolidation! Some of the smaller companies are already so small that cutting them in half again won’t make sense. They will merge or will simply go under and their flying will be absorbed by others.
Who consolidates with who? According to a quick Google search, there about 340 aircraft(+some 550’s) in the 50 seat fleet. SkyWest has about 1/3 of them, while Air Wisconsin, CommutAir, and Expressjet all exclusively fly 50 seaters and collectively operate the rest. There are also about 250 aircraft that are 70+ seats, many of which are owned by a regional airline, and not United. If the 50 seat fleet is on the chopping block, why have consolidation among the exclusive operators? Why would others absorb equipment and people who are slated to be cut? United has invested money in companies like Expressjet, but if their fleet is not long for this world, would it be cheaper to write that investment off or to transfer United owned big rj’s to a company that they made a prior investment in? Kirby has repeatedly said that the 50 seat flying will be almost gone, a thing of the past, or have a significant reduction. If the company decides to practically eliminate a fleet type that makes up over half of the total hulls, how do you consolidate companies when half of the crews will no longer be needed? Outside of bankruptcy, they aren’t going to get scope relief, until things return to normal I don’t see United even entertaining the idea of purchasing a new 100 seat fleet type, and if they are still not interested in 100 seaters, they definitely won’t want mainline 76 seaters. I’m looking at this as an outsider or from a management perspective, not as a pilot with skin in the game. How does it work?
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Old 04-11-2020, 06:52 AM
  #196  
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Just for a bit of perspective......UAL is currently losing more cash in a single DAY than it cost to purchase XJT from SkyWest. Given the current environment, I wouldn’t rule out any drastic decisions that we all used to deny were possible. When I worked at XJT, we used to say things like “they just spent all this money on EFBs, there’s NO WAY we are gonna get screwed again”. Only to be shafted, over....and over........and over.

I realize tens of millions of dollars is a lot of money, but these are extreme times......and nobody knows what UAL is gonna do.

Well......I will make one exception to that. I’m fairly certain I’m getting furloughed in October, along with every other CPP pilot. Last laugh is on us, I guess.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:08 AM
  #197  
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Originally Posted by ReadOnly7 View Post
Just for a bit of perspective......UAL is currently losing more cash in a single DAY than it cost to purchase XJT from SkyWest. Given the current environment, I wouldn’t rule out any drastic decisions that we all used to deny were possible. When I worked at XJT, we used to say things like “they just spent all this money on EFBs, there’s NO WAY we are gonna get screwed again”. Only to be shafted, over....and over........and over.

I realize tens of millions of dollars is a lot of money, but these are extreme times......and nobody knows what UAL is gonna do.

Well......I will make one exception to that. I’m fairly certain I’m getting furloughed in October, along with every other CPP pilot. Last laugh is on us, I guess.
I’d agree that these are extreme circumstances and previous investments or fleet plans really don’t matter any more. United recently spent big money on widebody seating configuration changes, and investments in regional carriers, but the clock has been reset and decisions will be made looking forward from this point, and not really much time spent looking back. If it makes financial sense to cut something, it’s gone
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:42 AM
  #198  
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Originally Posted by ReadOnly7 View Post
Just for a bit of perspective......UAL is currently losing more cash in a single DAY than it cost to purchase XJT from SkyWest.
might want to check your numbers. Expressjet was sold for $70 million, United has difference in revenue of -$100m per day. (A difference in revenue is not the actual amount lost which is unknown.) in q1 2019 they made 9.6b in rev and and 292m in profit which is about 105m and 3.2m a day. Or about 102m a day in operating expenses. Right now they are taking in a lot less money but they have also cut expenses drastically. Their fuel bill has been cut in half along with a drastic cut in labor through temporary contracts and people taking various types of leave and reduced schedules. The cost of maintenance is also lower with a significant amount of birds grounded. Based on the fact they have cut over 60% of flights and reduced labor cost across the board short term I would bet they cut expenses somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% which would put their actual losses at around $35-45m a day. Still a lot but no where near the amount of lost revenue
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Old 04-11-2020, 08:31 AM
  #199  
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Originally Posted by tonsterboy5 View Post
might want to check your numbers. Expressjet was sold for $70 million, United has difference in revenue of -$100m per day. (A difference in revenue is not the actual amount lost which is unknown.) in q1 2019 they made 9.6b in rev and and 292m in profit which is about 105m and 3.2m a day. Or about 102m a day in operating expenses. Right now they are taking in a lot less money but they have also cut expenses drastically. Their fuel bill has been cut in half along with a drastic cut in labor through temporary contracts and people taking various types of leave and reduced schedules. The cost of maintenance is also lower with a significant amount of birds grounded. Based on the fact they have cut over 60% of flights and reduced labor cost across the board short term I would bet they cut expenses somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% which would put their actual losses at around $35-45m a day. Still a lot but no where near the amount of lost revenue
I wasn’t really trying to armchair CFO the EXACT situation. The point is.....lots of money lost every day, which makes the “investment” in UAX “ownership” rather insignificant.....in the NEW big picture. Hopefully it all works out, but I’ve clung to false hope a LOT in this career, especially when I was stuck at XJT and denial was the driving force in most people’s minds.
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Old 04-11-2020, 10:25 AM
  #200  
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Originally Posted by ReadOnly7 View Post
I wasn’t really trying to armchair CFO the EXACT situation. The point is.....lots of money lost every day, which makes the “investment” in UAX “ownership” rather insignificant.....in the NEW big picture. Hopefully it all works out, but I’ve clung to false hope a LOT in this career, especially when I was stuck at XJT and denial was the driving force in most people’s minds.

ExpressJet is a “project car” for United. The moment we start costing them more than we are worth to them we are done.


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