I never once said it would drop dramatically. I just it won't be 3+ years on reserve.

 

Welcome to the airlines bud, many of us spent 3-4 years on reserve, many 2 on the street furloughed. Youll get zero sympathy from me.

 

Airline pilots are more prone to being empathetic of another more so than being sympathetic, the seniority system has taken care of that. Just an observation.

-2263

 

Where did I ever state or imply that I was looking for sympathy?

The OP was looking for info, so I gave them some hard facts. They can use this info however they please.

 

Oh cool. Another selfish couldn't care less about the other guy kind of pilot. If only there were more of you around we could really get this race to the bottom cranking. Thank you

 

What's the Upgrade time here?

 

Somewhere between now and never...

to be sincere, the latest upgrade is 01/07 I think, if not it was 12/06. That should decrease as 2014 progresses by quite a bit.

There were a ton of us hired in 2007, once they get through 2007 hires, upgrade time will decrease even more quickly

Trust me, most FOs are trying to upgrade but also have resumes out everywhere. First chance to get out, most of us will

 

I would have to disagree that upgrade will drop. About 300 pilots were hired in 2007. It's about 30 a month that we were hiring at then. So upgrades would have to be about 30 per month through all 2014. I highly doubt that. Further, I assume ASA and XJT will continue to shrink. This leads me to believe that upgrade times will actually get longer in 2014. Of course as soon as the 2007 hires upgrade then we will see a huge drop in upgrade times. One thing that could change this is the merger of the two groups. At the time when the merger was announced (date of first notification). The xjt side had significant furloughs. Alpa merger policy will likely yield a list based on relative seniority at that time. I find it likely that a large portion of ASA fo's will take the upgrades on both sides for a couple months. I'm not trying to flame, I truthfully believe that the best thing for this company is the combination of both pilot groups working together to make this place better. That said, in the most recent years the erj side has benefited disproportionately in terms of seniority gains.

One thing I do agree on is most of the FO's (including myself) have apps in everywhere.

 

You don't think there will be fences to prevent senior CRJ FOs from holding ERJ CA spots right off the bat? The ERJ side will continue to have more attrition and more upgrades so fences will benefit the senior ERJ FOs. If there aren't any fences I would expect ATL to go even more senior than it already is. In all honesty there isn't much point in speculating because we are so far away from a single list although it can be a good time killer to predict. It is going to be 6 months minimum after a JCBA is ratified for a single list to come out.

 

There will be fences, just not for upgrades (my opinion). The contract could be done within a couple weeks. They are right there. The list timeline would be about 4 months after TA. All of this wont really matter because the middle of 2014 people will be jumping ship so fast no one will ever notice. I don't envision any situation where any pilot would be displaced. Either way, this should be a crazy year.