While Jetblue Stagnates....
02-07-2018 | 05:56 AM
#91
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Joined: May 2013
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So, our big Airbus order around the 2011 time frame originally had us ramping up to 15 deliveries per year, I believe they were to reach 15 deliveries somewhere between 2014-2016 and stay there through 2020-2021. So the schedule was for 15 deliveries in 2018. That was before one of our many deferrals that took that number down, only to go back up to 10, which is still only 2/3 of what it was scheduled to be. This at a time when our airline and the entire industry has never been more profitable!
Stagnation is subjective. Yes, literally it means what you said. Some of us consider us to be stagnant when our seniority movement at this "GROWTH" airline falls well behind that at those "failed model" old crusty legacies.
We've already established our growth is slowing. Lower ASM forecasts, fewer deliveries and/or same number of deliveries added to an ever larger fleet count base each year, seniority list growing by the same number of pilots even though the list is larger (lower percentage growth), etc ... Our growth is slowing, yet we have no retirements. That, to some of us, is stagnating. You are correct, not LITERALLY.
As an example, if you are 50% up our seniority list, and we add 180 pilots to the bottom of our seniority list as planned, you don't move up 5%, you move up 2.5%. At a "growth" airline. Our 13 or so retirements this year are statistically irrelevant.
Now United is forecasting ASM growth for the next 3 years higher than we are, and because of their "scope choke", it will primarily be mainline growth. In addition, they have hundreds of retirements that come off the top of the list, so if 7% of the list retires, you move up 7% PLUS growth. And they have a great contract!
Delta has similar numbers. They don't forecast quite as much ASM growth, but because they are actively"upgauging" they are growing the mainline seniority list much faster than their ASM forecast suggests. They are hiring for mainline growth and significant retirements. Plus a great contract.
I know you know all this. And I know we agree, these days, on quite a lot. So understand that some of us believe we are stagnating relative to prior seniority PERCENTAGE movement and relative to our "failed model" peers.
In the end, until this contract is settled and the company stops withholding 30% of my compensation, retirement and QOL, I will not lift one tiny finger on a keyboard to "correct the record" about our pay, benefits or career progression.
JB can defend it's own record, we shouldn't be doing their work for them right now. My opinion, of course.
Stagnation is subjective. Yes, literally it means what you said. Some of us consider us to be stagnant when our seniority movement at this "GROWTH" airline falls well behind that at those "failed model" old crusty legacies.
We've already established our growth is slowing. Lower ASM forecasts, fewer deliveries and/or same number of deliveries added to an ever larger fleet count base each year, seniority list growing by the same number of pilots even though the list is larger (lower percentage growth), etc ... Our growth is slowing, yet we have no retirements. That, to some of us, is stagnating. You are correct, not LITERALLY.
As an example, if you are 50% up our seniority list, and we add 180 pilots to the bottom of our seniority list as planned, you don't move up 5%, you move up 2.5%. At a "growth" airline. Our 13 or so retirements this year are statistically irrelevant.
Now United is forecasting ASM growth for the next 3 years higher than we are, and because of their "scope choke", it will primarily be mainline growth. In addition, they have hundreds of retirements that come off the top of the list, so if 7% of the list retires, you move up 7% PLUS growth. And they have a great contract!
Delta has similar numbers. They don't forecast quite as much ASM growth, but because they are actively"upgauging" they are growing the mainline seniority list much faster than their ASM forecast suggests. They are hiring for mainline growth and significant retirements. Plus a great contract.
I know you know all this. And I know we agree, these days, on quite a lot. So understand that some of us believe we are stagnating relative to prior seniority PERCENTAGE movement and relative to our "failed model" peers.
In the end, until this contract is settled and the company stops withholding 30% of my compensation, retirement and QOL, I will not lift one tiny finger on a keyboard to "correct the record" about our pay, benefits or career progression.
JB can defend it's own record, we shouldn't be doing their work for them right now. My opinion, of course.
02-07-2018 | 06:47 AM
#95
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,274
Likes: 55
From: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Come on Joe, you must agree that our pay has fallen further behind our peers in recent years and our growth rate is lower than it was before?!?
Barger used to tell Wall Street high single digit ASM growth. Then it was mid-to-high single digit. What is it for 2018, 3.5-5.5?
Slowing.
Pay wise, we used to get sorta spreadsheet peer average PLUS premium pay above 78 hours.
Now, 30+% behind our peers with no premium pay.
I'm sorry but this place has ABSOLUTELY gotten worse in my almost 7 years here.
Period.
Barger used to tell Wall Street high single digit ASM growth. Then it was mid-to-high single digit. What is it for 2018, 3.5-5.5?
Slowing.
Pay wise, we used to get sorta spreadsheet peer average PLUS premium pay above 78 hours.
Now, 30+% behind our peers with no premium pay.
I'm sorry but this place has ABSOLUTELY gotten worse in my almost 7 years here.
Period.
Funny thing was I had a longer post that had to do with you and I and the time we have been here. Yes you are correct. My point to passer was he has been here 2 years if you did some research even just a little none of this should have surprised him. It’s not being rude or defending the company but it is what it is. When a delta contract won’t make you happy, there is not much that will.
02-07-2018 | 06:51 AM
#96
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Joined: Feb 2009
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Funny thing was I had a longer post that had to do with you and I and the time we have been here. Yes you are correct. My point to passer was he has been here 2 years if you did some research even just a little none of this should have surprised him. It’s not being rude or defending the company but it is what it is. When a delta contract won’t make you happy, there is not much that will.
02-07-2018 | 06:58 AM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,274
Likes: 55
From: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Did he Joe? Or did he forget and did you forget that we were previously scheduled to have 15 deliveries in 2018? Did you forget or did you not want to point that out for some other reason in your zeal to support a moderate post?
Look at our 2013 10k report. We were supposed to get 15 Airbus deliveries per year between 2015(I think) and 2019.
Look at our 2013 10k report. We were supposed to get 15 Airbus deliveries per year between 2015(I think) and 2019.
And this is why I took a month off these stupid forums
02-07-2018 | 07:19 AM
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,274
Likes: 55
From: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
02-07-2018 | 07:28 AM
#99
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Joined: Dec 2008
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You make it so difficult to be on your side...
Got it. We are "literally" still growing and hiring and not stagnant. But you "FEEL" stagnant because we're not retiring guys like the big 3 and not growing ASMs like the big 3 or taking deliveries fast enough. But earlier you argued that ASM's were not necessarily growth... Won't lift a finger to correct the record, but can't show up to support your union either.
You win, you go into the southerner irrational box of no longer credible.
Hope you can find time for the next picket if you're not too busy here on APC telling everyone how you feel.
Got it. We are "literally" still growing and hiring and not stagnant. But you "FEEL" stagnant because we're not retiring guys like the big 3 and not growing ASMs like the big 3 or taking deliveries fast enough. But earlier you argued that ASM's were not necessarily growth... Won't lift a finger to correct the record, but can't show up to support your union either.
You win, you go into the southerner irrational box of no longer credible.
Hope you can find time for the next picket if you're not too busy here on APC telling everyone how you feel.
So, our big Airbus order around the 2011 time frame originally had us ramping up to 15 deliveries per year, I believe they were to reach 15 deliveries somewhere between 2014-2016 and stay there through 2020-2021. So the schedule was for 15 deliveries in 2018. That was before one of our many deferrals that took that number down, only to go back up to 10, which is still only 2/3 of what it was scheduled to be. This at a time when our airline and the entire industry has never been more profitable!
Stagnation is subjective. Yes, literally it means what you said. Some of us consider us to be stagnant when our seniority movement at this "GROWTH" airline falls well behind that at those "failed model" old crusty legacies.
We've already established our growth is slowing. Lower ASM forecasts, fewer deliveries and/or same number of deliveries added to an ever larger fleet count base each year, seniority list growing by the same number of pilots even though the list is larger (lower percentage growth), etc ... Our growth is slowing, yet we have no retirements. That, to some of us, is stagnating. You are correct, not LITERALLY.
As an example, if you are 50% up our seniority list, and we add 180 pilots to the bottom of our seniority list as planned, you don't move up 5%, you move up 2.5%. At a "growth" airline. Our 13 or so retirements this year are statistically irrelevant.
Now United is forecasting ASM growth for the next 3 years higher than we are, and because of their "scope choke", it will primarily be mainline growth. In addition, they have hundreds of retirements that come off the top of the list, so if 7% of the list retires, you move up 7% PLUS growth. And they have a great contract!
Delta has similar numbers. They don't forecast quite as much ASM growth, but because they are actively"upgauging" they are growing the mainline seniority list much faster than their ASM forecast suggests. They are hiring for mainline growth and significant retirements. Plus a great contract.
I know you know all this. And I know we agree, these days, on quite a lot. So understand that some of us believe we are stagnating relative to prior seniority PERCENTAGE movement and relative to our "failed model" peers.
In the end, until this contract is settled and the company stops withholding 30% of my compensation, retirement and QOL, I will not lift one tiny finger on a keyboard to "correct the record" about our pay, benefits or career progression.
JB can defend it's own record, we shouldn't be doing their work for them right now. My opinion, of course.
Stagnation is subjective. Yes, literally it means what you said. Some of us consider us to be stagnant when our seniority movement at this "GROWTH" airline falls well behind that at those "failed model" old crusty legacies.
We've already established our growth is slowing. Lower ASM forecasts, fewer deliveries and/or same number of deliveries added to an ever larger fleet count base each year, seniority list growing by the same number of pilots even though the list is larger (lower percentage growth), etc ... Our growth is slowing, yet we have no retirements. That, to some of us, is stagnating. You are correct, not LITERALLY.
As an example, if you are 50% up our seniority list, and we add 180 pilots to the bottom of our seniority list as planned, you don't move up 5%, you move up 2.5%. At a "growth" airline. Our 13 or so retirements this year are statistically irrelevant.
Now United is forecasting ASM growth for the next 3 years higher than we are, and because of their "scope choke", it will primarily be mainline growth. In addition, they have hundreds of retirements that come off the top of the list, so if 7% of the list retires, you move up 7% PLUS growth. And they have a great contract!
Delta has similar numbers. They don't forecast quite as much ASM growth, but because they are actively"upgauging" they are growing the mainline seniority list much faster than their ASM forecast suggests. They are hiring for mainline growth and significant retirements. Plus a great contract.
I know you know all this. And I know we agree, these days, on quite a lot. So understand that some of us believe we are stagnating relative to prior seniority PERCENTAGE movement and relative to our "failed model" peers.
In the end, until this contract is settled and the company stops withholding 30% of my compensation, retirement and QOL, I will not lift one tiny finger on a keyboard to "correct the record" about our pay, benefits or career progression.
JB can defend it's own record, we shouldn't be doing their work for them right now. My opinion, of course.
02-07-2018 | 07:32 AM
#100
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Joined: Dec 2008
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I can't remember ever when we were close to the big 3 in pay rates. Certainly not in total compensation. Now close... close is another subjective term i suppose.
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