Just to make sure I understand those numbers correctly:

There's 225 total slots available, and the 10 pilots in the class bid upon those. Does that mean that what remains uncovered is available for the next class?

112 JFK A320 available, 3 JFK A320 awarded. Does that mean 109 JFK A320 available for the next class?

Thanks

 

No.

This seems to be looked over here, but the company gets to choose which vacancies to offer to new hires.

If they wanted to, they could offer nothing but 190 vacancies to new hires. It’s completely up to crew planning.

 

The majority of the class offerings will be airbus. They have vacancies for the 190 as we all know, however the training department/company is running into issues with pilots on the 190 at the one year mark bailing for the bus. So IMO the majority of the classes will be bus since they have so many vacancies for it and it's not going to cost them an extra training cycle. There are very very few people going from the bus to the 190. I know of 2 people that did it just to get home based in MCO.

 

I see what you’re saying, but with that logic, (as mass exodus of pilots from the 190 to the bus), wouldn’t the company be in need to get new hires into the 190 to fill the vacancies?

 

Interesting. My last 2 FOs were fresh FROM the bus, and bid off as soon as they could to get a line and escape red eyes. YMMV

 

Illogical.

18 on the 320 and 17 on the 190 previous class. Hardly a landslide. Plus, if "so many are bailing from the 190 to the 320 at year 2" as you say, then the 190 would need even more people.

I think the 190->320 shift is mostly over due to pay reasons. The only thing left is those who WANTED the 320 but did not get it in the beginning. Those will shift over at year 2, again leaving a dearth of 190 slots.

But reality is that most (80%?) actually want the bus up front, but can't get it. Yes, the 190 training side seems to be running near max capacity, but enough are moving to the 320 to ensure that 190 slots will always be available. At least until the 200 gets here, which will upset BOTH apple carts.

 

Poppycock, I tell ya. I haven't actually counted, but I think I've done about 8-9 redeyes on the 320 in the last year. Hardly a reason to switch aircraft. ZERO redeyes is certainly better than nine, but if that's really.why they are switching, they won't be happy on the 190 either.

Now, living in base, or being able to hold a line on the 190 vs 320 RSV, I can see. Me? I don't care if I fly, and doing 1-2 legs per day, even on RSV, beats 4-5 legs a day holding a line. And that's the beauty of this job, just about any desire can be accommodated pretty easily.

 

There were a whopping 5 320FO to 190FOs on the last bid (2 bos, 1 jfk, and 2 mco). 4 of those 5 were bid back to original position so they weren’t really even 320 FOs. The other was MGMT so he doesn’t count either. Zero on the bid before that (March), and 3 on the bid before that (December) which I can’t see if they were actual 320 FOs or 190 FOs bidding back to original position 190 guys. In comparison I counted 20 190FO to 320FO on the last bid, 34 on the one before that (March), and 44 on the one before that (December). Also consider that’s at most 3/1500 320 FOs going to 190 FO, and ~100/450 190 FOs going to 320 FO...in a 9 month period.

So in general I’d say people aren’t banging down the doors trying to fly the 190 coming from the bus, and the fact that you had 2 in a row is not representative of the trends (maybe your relative seniorities align for trips). It appears it’s about a 30:1 ratio of 190 to 320 vs 320 to 190, assuming those 3 from 3 bids ago were actually 320 FOs going to 190FO. And in a 9 month period that’s ~100 190 training events required. I don’t have the bid saved from September so I can’t get data on that, but extrapolated out, its about 130 190 to 320 FO transitions...almost 30% of the 190 FO population per year. Guess Aug bid will paint a pretty good picture of what can be expected next year.

*disclaimer: I looked at the lists on my phone fairly quickly, they could be off by a small amount, but I think it’s pretty accurate. And I did all the math quickly and I’m tired so perhaps I’m missing something but that’s the best forward looking info my crystal ball has.

Edited because I realized the 5 guys I originally mentioned weren’t even 320FOs.

 

I didn't say anything other than a fact...that my last 2 FOs were fresh off the bus, and I quoted their reasons. Not MY reasons, the reasons they told me when I asked why.

 

I didn't say that it was a huge number. It's just what happened.