Class Drops
09-12-2019, 08:08 AM
#691
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
Originally Posted by BlueJetDork
Good news is ALWAYS around the corner at BlueJet.
One problem ... which one? There is an unlimited number of corners (hope) in a city.
Being "hopeful" many will defend as a strength. It is in your personal life with family and friends. However, in certain places, it is is a weakness.
Depressing? Not even close. You just have to understand the opponent and the tools they use so that the group becomes immune.
If you don't understand that then ...
Welcome into the bucket! Keep swimming!
In the meantime, I heard someone just found a newish sim and classes somewhere will be ramping up very soon.
One problem ... which one? There is an unlimited number of corners (hope) in a city.
Being "hopeful" many will defend as a strength. It is in your personal life with family and friends. However, in certain places, it is is a weakness.
Depressing? Not even close. You just have to understand the opponent and the tools they use so that the group becomes immune.
If you don't understand that then ...
Welcome into the bucket! Keep swimming!
In the meantime, I heard someone just found a newish sim and classes somewhere will be ramping up very soon.
#nailedit
09-12-2019, 08:09 AM
#692
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18
Damn I like to complain with the best of you but we are gonna hit 400+ this year.
Over 10% growth on the list and we only took a few airplanes....
Not seeing the downside on this one
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Over 10% growth on the list and we only took a few airplanes....
Not seeing the downside on this one
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
09-12-2019, 08:12 AM
#693
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,512
Originally Posted by Bluedriver
What's the trend line look like?
Instructors all go through their recurrent cycles in September. Not surprised of the relatively low number.
I’ll put good money on them hitting 400 this year.
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09-12-2019, 08:41 AM
#694
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 442
Originally Posted by Bluedriver
What's the trend line look like?
Seniority list trend line is a fairly constant line up, with a slight uptick in the last year. Hiring trend line over the last 20 years is all over the place. Mid 2000s it was high, then a huge drop, peaked again in 2014, then fell off, but is approaching previous highs. Obviously percentage wise, any number that remains constant becomes a smaller percentage each year as the list grows in overall seniority percentage. Guys hired at seniority number 2,000 only needed 200 a year growth to gain 10% on the list. At 4,000, it takes 400 a year to move up 10% (I know you know that just putting it out there for other readers for perspective).
09-12-2019, 08:43 AM
#695
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18
Instructors all go through their recurrent cycles in September. Not surprised of the relatively low number.
I’ll put good money on them hitting 400 this year.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’ll put good money on them hitting 400 this year.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Trend lines not going the right direction.
I know it was summer. And instructor recurrent in Sept.
And October has Halloween and some Saturdays. Plus the leaves change color in October.
And November has Thanksgiving and some Sundays. And Black Friday.
December has Christmas, and instructors need to shop... Then there's Friday night bingo.
But next year, NEXT years gonna be huge!
😂
09-12-2019, 08:44 AM
#696
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
Through the end of August this year, we have hired ~310. This is higher (for the same time period) than every year except 2006 and 2007, where the numbers were 317 and 319 by the end of August.
Seniority list trend line is a fairly constant line up, with a slight uptick in the last year. Hiring trend line over the last 20 years is all over the place. Mid 2000s it was high, then a huge drop, peaked again in 2014, then fell off, but is approaching previous highs. Obviously percentage wise, any number that remains constant becomes a smaller percentage each year as the list grows in overall seniority percentage. Guys hired at seniority number 2,000 only needed 200 a year growth to gain 10% on the list. At 4,000, it takes 400 a year to move up 10% (I know you know that just putting it out there for other readers for perspective).
Seniority list trend line is a fairly constant line up, with a slight uptick in the last year. Hiring trend line over the last 20 years is all over the place. Mid 2000s it was high, then a huge drop, peaked again in 2014, then fell off, but is approaching previous highs. Obviously percentage wise, any number that remains constant becomes a smaller percentage each year as the list grows in overall seniority percentage. Guys hired at seniority number 2,000 only needed 200 a year growth to gain 10% on the list. At 4,000, it takes 400 a year to move up 10% (I know you know that just putting it out there for other readers for perspective).
I was asking about the trend line within 2019. Classes are getting smaller, not bigger. See my post from a minute ago above this one.
09-12-2019, 09:02 AM
#697
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 442
Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Good info.
I was asking about the trend line within 2019. Classes are getting smaller, not bigger. See my post from a minute ago above this one.
I was asking about the trend line within 2019. Classes are getting smaller, not bigger. See my post from a minute ago above this one.
I'm not saying Oct-Dec will necessarily be high (I don't have hiring plans other than what the propaganda machine spits out at OSC), but I am saying that past data doesn't necessarily support lowered Oct-Dec hiring based off of lower Aug/Sep class size.
TL;DR: a monthly trend line in JB hiring is useless to predict future class sizes.
09-12-2019, 09:05 AM
#698
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
In 2014 we hired 10/16 in Aug/Sep, then 45 in Oct, 35 in November, and 23 in December. In 2015 it was 18/5 for Aug/Sep, then 36/32/32 for Oct/Nov/Dec. The monthly trends are all over the place for all years, but summer (including Sept) slow months aren't generally indicative of much, since Oct-Dec has, in many years, been a large uptick, regardless of low Aug/Sep numbers.
I'm not saying Oct-Dec will necessarily be high (I don't have hiring plans other than what the propaganda machine spits out at OSC), but I am saying that past data doesn't necessarily support lowered Oct-Dec hiring based off of lower Aug/Sep class size.
TL;DR: a monthly trend line in JB hiring is useless to predict future class sizes.
I'm not saying Oct-Dec will necessarily be high (I don't have hiring plans other than what the propaganda machine spits out at OSC), but I am saying that past data doesn't necessarily support lowered Oct-Dec hiring based off of lower Aug/Sep class size.
TL;DR: a monthly trend line in JB hiring is useless to predict future class sizes.
Hope you have seen the movie, otherwise that will be gibberish.
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