Class Drops
08-24-2019, 01:04 PM
#671
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,002
Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
Anyone "hired" means they got on the list (ie showed up to class), not just received a job offer. So JB could offer 1,000 job offers/class dates, but until they show up they aren't "hired." So the 400-500 is those who make it to the seniority list and start class. Attrition is usually around 75-95 a year. We are on track to lose about 82 this year. Of those, 15ish are retirements. Last few years, retirements have been around 15-20 annually. Looking forward, 2020 has 27 retirements, 2021 29, 2022 35, 2023 46, 2025 73, 2026 61, then low triple digits every year after that. So our annual attrition will go up over the next few years due to retirements, and I'd imagine some will continue to leave for the big 6. In 2018, 90 people left. 21 of those were retirements, 7 died, a few random things (medical, terminated, took non-flying jobs not at JB, etc), 30 went to other airlines (that I have data for), and 27 of those 90 I have no data for, so could have been a number of things. This year, 53 have left...I only have data on half. Of the 27 I have data for, 14 went to other airlines, 9 retired, 3 died, and 1 went to work at flight safety. No idea about the other 26.
So if we hire 500, we can plan on adding 400ish to the seniority list, which is mostly for growth, but it also incorporates a need for higher staffing requirements due to the CBA rules (work rules and vacation distribution/allocation/rules). This year JB is taking 6 new airplanes (1 delivered and about to start revenue service in a few weeks, the other 5 are yet to be delivered). So we need growth pilots to cover those. We have roughly 15.7 pilots per plane currently. We have firm orders For 84 remaining A321NEO variants (13 LR, 13 XLR, the rest regular NEOs), and 70 A220s, for deliveries through 2025 (perhaps a few or more frames will slip to 2026), and we are supposed to retire all 60 E190s as the A220s come online. So, napkin math: 94 net planes to be delivered, at 15.7 pilots per plane (though the ratio will likely go up since the A220 will have higher utilization and need more pilots, the LR/XLR will need heavier staffing needs due to augmentation and a separate crew base within a base, and having 3 fleets will drive a higher overall staffing ratio, but I'll assume current ratio for simplicity), is a net gain of roughly 1500 pilots by the end of 2025. With 288 retirements between now and then, plus other attrition, that's roughly 2,000 pilots that need to be hired (probably more, as I think attrition will be a little higher and I think the staffing ratio will have to continue to go up).
You could also argue our past attrition won't reflect future attrition due to the CBA being in place now, but I think people will still leave in years 0-4 at the same rate they are now, simply because of the retirements, better CBAs, better network, better base options at the big 6. Personally, I think we will trend to 100-150 a year attrition thru 2026, then 150-250 a year beyond that. So hiring will cover mostly growth, but certainly some attrition.
To answer your question about who is leaving, this year, 8 2019 hires have left, 17 from 2018, 5 from 2017, 2 from 2016, 7 from 2015, and a few from various years above that. Last year 37 of the 90 that left were from the first 3 years, 15 from years 4-5, and then scattered above that. 2017 and earlier is basically the same trend. 0-3 years seems to be by far the most, a few from years 4-5, and then a smattering of guys above that.
I have an opportunity cost spreadsheet that uses various assumptions (upgrade times, WB pay, overall higher pay scale, higher PS) for leaving and starting over at a legacy. My crossover point at which leaving is financially worth it (which assumes JB never gets WBs nor compensation/PS commensurate with legacies), is very far away, and it (currently) isn't worth it. Had I left in years 0/1/2 it probably would have been. Everybody has a unique situation and the math isn't the same for everyone. But overall, after a few years here, it gets a lot harder to start over at the bottom of a list, even with all the retirements on the horizon elsewhere. The guys hired a few days ago (so guys currently at say 3996 on the list), with just the firm growth and current staffing ratio, will be 72% in the company by the end of 2024, and 50% in the company by 2031. That could all change with aircraft delivery delays/deferrals (pretty standard at JB in the last few years it seems), a downturn, parking older planes early, mergers/acquisitions, or a number of other events. Legacies could not grow at all, or even shrink, and decent seniority progression will likely still happen there due to retirements...our seniority progression is based heavily on growth, which imo drives some of our 0-3 year attrition.
That's the long answer to some of your questions. Hope it helps. Good luck.
So if we hire 500, we can plan on adding 400ish to the seniority list, which is mostly for growth, but it also incorporates a need for higher staffing requirements due to the CBA rules (work rules and vacation distribution/allocation/rules). This year JB is taking 6 new airplanes (1 delivered and about to start revenue service in a few weeks, the other 5 are yet to be delivered). So we need growth pilots to cover those. We have roughly 15.7 pilots per plane currently. We have firm orders For 84 remaining A321NEO variants (13 LR, 13 XLR, the rest regular NEOs), and 70 A220s, for deliveries through 2025 (perhaps a few or more frames will slip to 2026), and we are supposed to retire all 60 E190s as the A220s come online. So, napkin math: 94 net planes to be delivered, at 15.7 pilots per plane (though the ratio will likely go up since the A220 will have higher utilization and need more pilots, the LR/XLR will need heavier staffing needs due to augmentation and a separate crew base within a base, and having 3 fleets will drive a higher overall staffing ratio, but I'll assume current ratio for simplicity), is a net gain of roughly 1500 pilots by the end of 2025. With 288 retirements between now and then, plus other attrition, that's roughly 2,000 pilots that need to be hired (probably more, as I think attrition will be a little higher and I think the staffing ratio will have to continue to go up).
You could also argue our past attrition won't reflect future attrition due to the CBA being in place now, but I think people will still leave in years 0-4 at the same rate they are now, simply because of the retirements, better CBAs, better network, better base options at the big 6. Personally, I think we will trend to 100-150 a year attrition thru 2026, then 150-250 a year beyond that. So hiring will cover mostly growth, but certainly some attrition.
To answer your question about who is leaving, this year, 8 2019 hires have left, 17 from 2018, 5 from 2017, 2 from 2016, 7 from 2015, and a few from various years above that. Last year 37 of the 90 that left were from the first 3 years, 15 from years 4-5, and then scattered above that. 2017 and earlier is basically the same trend. 0-3 years seems to be by far the most, a few from years 4-5, and then a smattering of guys above that.
I have an opportunity cost spreadsheet that uses various assumptions (upgrade times, WB pay, overall higher pay scale, higher PS) for leaving and starting over at a legacy. My crossover point at which leaving is financially worth it (which assumes JB never gets WBs nor compensation/PS commensurate with legacies), is very far away, and it (currently) isn't worth it. Had I left in years 0/1/2 it probably would have been. Everybody has a unique situation and the math isn't the same for everyone. But overall, after a few years here, it gets a lot harder to start over at the bottom of a list, even with all the retirements on the horizon elsewhere. The guys hired a few days ago (so guys currently at say 3996 on the list), with just the firm growth and current staffing ratio, will be 72% in the company by the end of 2024, and 50% in the company by 2031. That could all change with aircraft delivery delays/deferrals (pretty standard at JB in the last few years it seems), a downturn, parking older planes early, mergers/acquisitions, or a number of other events. Legacies could not grow at all, or even shrink, and decent seniority progression will likely still happen there due to retirements...our seniority progression is based heavily on growth, which imo drives some of our 0-3 year attrition.
That's the long answer to some of your questions. Hope it helps. Good luck.
2026 and beyond is obviously far away, so it’s more of wild guess.
Last edited by nuball5; 08-24-2019 at 01:19 PM.
08-24-2019, 01:47 PM
#672
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 442
Originally Posted by nuball5
Wow that’s a lot of detail, nice job. The only thing I disagree with is that attrition to the Legacies will increase past 2026, I think it will decrease. You start falling behind the retirement power curve if you don’t start making plans to leave in the next few years...Delta especially who’s been hiring like gangbusters for several years now. American Airlines might be the only place someone in their thirties would see the left seat of a wide-body, but they hire very little off the street.
2026 and beyond is obviously far away, so it’s more of wild guess.
2026 and beyond is obviously far away, so it’s more of wild guess.
The thing is, if we hypothetically stay organic forever, and we keep a 10-15 plane per year growth, which is about at the top end of what I would estimate once you consider some of the 320s that will have to be retired at some point in the mid-late 2020s, our growth will eventually be slow enough on a percentage basis, with slower retirements, that it will still make sense to go to a legacy even after a year or 2 at JB. End of 2025, I'd expect our list to be roughly 5500-5700 if we take all the planes on time. So if we grew by 200-250 pilots a year at that point (after the CBA staffing increase this year and next, likely requiring 300-400 hires to cover attrition depending on the year at that point), which is about what 10-15 planes a year would need, a person's percentage increase on a seniority list at JB would be low enough that they'd still be better off going to an airline with more retirements and with a lot of wide body jobs, where they would gain relative seniority and more career options faster than sitting at the bottom of a slow growing (percentage wise), slow retirement list (sorry for the long-@ss sentence but I'm not changing it).
Point is I think our annual seniority percentage increases will stay lower than legacies once we grow more, and they (as of now) offer more pay, career options, etc., enticing people to keep their apps in with legacies. But I could be wrong.
I'll caveat this analysis with the fact that I think by 2025 a recession will have hit (impacting total fleet/hiring), more M&A will have occurred, and the likelihood of any of this panning out as I predict is slim to none. If JB stays organic (or depending on who they merged with if that happened), I'd also bet there will be WBs (or at least orders) by 2025, which also changes things.
All this to say: I have no idea...all I have is a bunch of current data for today, some outdated forward looking data on retirements, but I certainly don't have a crystal ball for career expectations at JB or any other airline, or future attrition, or JB's ability to attract and retain pilots at that point (I guess they better hope CBA 2022 is a little better relative to peers than it is now, or perhaps have something else in mind like pumping up the gateway 0 to hero program?).
08-27-2019, 10:45 AM
#673
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Posts: 2,559
A slight correction to the numbers that were previously shared with us.
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
08-27-2019, 12:32 PM
#674
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,002
Originally Posted by HighFlight
A slight correction to the numbers that were previously shared with us.
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
08-27-2019, 12:41 PM
#675
Endless Reserve
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: E190 FO
Posts: 386
Originally Posted by HighFlight
A slight correction to the numbers that were previously shared with us.
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
Already past 4K. 4011 the last guy on CrewTrac
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08-27-2019, 12:59 PM
#676
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 442
Originally Posted by chitolin
Already past 4K. 4011 the last guy on CrewTrac
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
08-27-2019, 02:03 PM
#677
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 918
Originally Posted by HighFlight
A slight correction to the numbers that were previously shared with us.
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
12 total for 8/21/19.
JFK 320 - 2
BOS E90 - 10
Just started the 3,999th pilot. Next class will break 4,000. # 4,000 will get his/her own private room at OSC, as well as profit sharing that will beat anything Goodwill is putting out!!
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