Spot on. I fully expect about a 20%-25% furlough announcement sometime this summer. As bad as things are now, it’s about to get worse unfortunately.

 

Assuming bookings stay flatlined and we have social distancing extended through the summer?

I honestly feel like we are in the worst of the doom and gloom portion right now. Also remember even if someone wanted to travel today they couldn't (well, are strongly advised not to travel). I think the social distancing will end June 1, people will start traveling again during the summer and we will see at least an uptrend in capacity.

April -70%
May -70%
June -60%
July -50%
August -30%
Sept -20%

I think it would be a bad move to send guys to the street in October with bookings trending upwards, particularly since the breakeven point in a furlough is somewhere between 1-2 years. Zero furloughs for JB.

If leisure/VFR is the first to return we will likely see super low fares to stimulate demand again, and financials will generally suck compared to 2019, but we will see fuller planes.

 

VFR will be the first to rebound and makes up a large part of JBs network

not having WBs to have to fill is another huge structural advantage.

do you think they follow through with TATL in 2021?

 

The optimist in me agrees with you. The planner in me sides with Nuball and will prepare for lower credit possible furloughs in the the months ahead. Credit all I can for now as that is all I have control of. If it turns out it was a false alarm to prepare for a major downturn then I’ll have some extra money in the bank.

 

I could see it go either way with the TATL 2021 plans. I'd like to see them take a bold move and go forward with the plans and hopefully grab some LHR slots from struggling carriers. Narrowbody TATL is the future, and WBs will be reserved for fewer routes than we see today.

 

now would be the time. The planes are going to be delivered anyways and everyone’s balance sheets are going to be crap, so Wall Street can’t complain too much

 

I think the business case for JB Transatlantic is probably as strong or stronger now. I believe JB Transatlantic happens, but it could possibly be delayed some.

My opinion.

 

Definitely delayed

 

Is that you Robyn? ...

 

I tend to agree with this with a more pessimistic view. B6 could either cower in the corner or become more bullish. This particular management team seems to be the former.
You're on the money with the furlough idea. Furloughs are a long term solution for, what we hope, is a shorter term problem (<12 months) or so.
I hate to mention it, but finding candidates, when it comes time to hire again, probably wont be a problem. No telling how many the legacies will shed with this hit- 6-10K? more?