11atsomto

I don't want this thread to turn into a consultancy so feel free to PM me and I d be more than happy to have you pick my brain..... I will say however:


I'm not a WallStreetsman so I can't predict the economy. It's honorable and respectable that you are concerned about the economic health/potential furlough. It shows you are little but more on the ball than many other swinging sticks.

I'll leave the following guidance, at less than 2 years I don't think you are any less vulnerable for furlough than say a 1 year person at a legacy......(remember think %s of total system seniority) B6 only has 4800 ish pilots.

If you do get furloughed who do you think will start recalling people quicker: A global brand with multiple fleets and 1.8 retirements per day?, or a Niche/low cost/ Long Island City's term du jour carrier who will be integrating with an LCC's pilot group and NO retirements?

nuball5

Its more involved that that. If there hadn’t been a CARES Act version 1, 2, and 3 during a global pandemic, it would’ve been those global brands that would’ve taken much longer to recall everyone. A place like United sent out roughly 4,000 WARN letters if I recall correctly. Hard to know what JetBlue would’ve done without the NEA LOA, but it would’ve been less than that percentage wise. Impossible to predict what the next Black Swan event will be or you’d be a genius.

knewyork

I’m pretty sure jetblue would recall faster lol

Bluedriver

Ah, no they wouldn't. JB has a NO-FURLOUGH policy.

AYLflyer

Honestly I've been hearing this line for the past how many years now and nothing has happened. If I could go back in time, I'd have listened to my buddy in Jan '21 when hiring resumed and gone to another airline. At that time though, lockdowns were still ongoing, vaccine cards and covid were still a thing. Last thing I thought was to jump ship and start over in that mess, and everyone was basically saying "It's gonna come crashing down any moment now". I thought people who were leaving were absolutely insane, instead, I watched guys get hired who are now Captains at United and Delta. So while I constantly fear the economy crashing and us losing our jobs (Normal airline pilot PTSD stuff) the reality is we have no idea what could happen.

I have to disagree with this. Jetblue has shown to be able to bounce back and withstand down turns better than the larger airlines (So have other LCCs). How many guys work here that are former United/Delta/AA/NW/Airways (You get my point) who were furloughed, recalled, furloughed again, however in that entire time, they've never lost their job here. During a downturn and or/furlough I'd much rather be at a Jetblue or Spirt than a United or Delta.

11atsomto

It’s fair to disagree…. I certainly can’t argue with your historical logic. But this is not the same movie we’ve seen before. These are “Crazy times” as someone put it. What’s different you ask? I would ask were there massive retirements 1990-2010, averaging over 1.8 a day? if there were that’s something I sure didn’t know.

Also we are Merging and they are NOT. We all know or should know, that in a merger there will definitely be a period of stagnation even if the stated intention of this acquisition is to use assists to grow.

At the end of the day you may be right I may be wrong………but moving carriers will always be an investment that involves risk…..and that includes the risk of loss and your capital is your seniority.

Bluedriver

I would just say that the legacy airlines, and the industry itself are much different than in the past. There was a lot of consolidation in the last 20 years in the legacy space, which both strengthened the legacies (relative to their past) and significantly reduced competition among and between the legacy airlines. And as we have seen, the result is the legacy airlines financials actually bounced back faster and better than JB/NK/F9 post COVID.

Not to mention their retirements largely insulate them from significant furloughs in all but the most black swan of black swan events.

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Bluediver

I’d like to see a copy of that policy. Is it under review with a task force like profit sharing? If it is with a task force that explains why it’s not made available to us.

Bluedriver

It's a verbal policy. They would never.

Bluediver

😂😂 Filler.