how about this perspective. the newbies just getting into the industry now will fare far worse than those who went through bankruptcy. the last 20 years, you had the fortune of having low taxes, low costs of college, low interest and mortgage rates, housing prices that appreciated massively (leaving many now looking forever locked out), low heath care costs, low auto costs, a stock market that made your average taxi driver (much less pilot) very wealthy, and a solvent social security which likely won’t exist for those in their 20s and 30s. I’m sure I’ve left out quite a few more. black swans on the horizon? every generation has had them. consider yourself extremely lucky having worked through the last 25 years.

 

whew. I was almost not going to send them another 5 grand. sorry junior, I need, I mean deserve it more than you.

 

Excellent analysis. I would assume single pilot will be a pretty large black swan, especially for the 20 year olds and anyone just starting the flight school pipeline. But the economic crash that causes the next wave of furloughs might take some of the air out of the housing bubble?

 

None of that will happen. Some senior pilots said it’s 2 year upgrades for twenty year olds and smooth sailing from here on out. They went through all the hardships and their sacrifices were the sole reason contracts are good today.
Then something about sending more money.

 

Yeah, the thing I keep thinking when I see the 90’s hires bring up their very real struggles/pain is that the way it’s brought up and talked about is often (not always) not to educate/warn, or even to just seek legit sympathy. Not saying this is you Buck. It’s so often comes across as a “you guys owe me” mentality. “Make me whole”. It may not be meant that way, but that’s how it comes across a lot. And that is universally counter-productive to their goals. Just like Post-Covid hires don’t owe anything to the UNA’s, it’s not the role of the following generations to bear the cost of what you went through instead of you. Nope. Especially given the uncertainty this industry will always have.

However, there is an attitude that will make the masses want to help in some smaller ways. That will get that following generation to step up and share the load to a degree. To show appreciation for the heavy lifting/struggles of the prior generation. But the few who have that helpful attitude often get drown out by the loud, angry voices. Look at what happened at FedEx with their failed TA and the aftermath. QED

 

This is a real concern(for me). It will dwarf the 3 holer 727FE jobs lost that was also a blip(taken as an isolated event) during previous careers. At least Delta has minimum pilots definition codified it in their PWA.

I had this discussion with my kids.... fortunately, one is in the "better than 50%" overall seniority which I couched as an informal goalpost to mitigate "black swans".

1. Off probation
2 Furlough proof(15% below min, 30% below optimum)
3 Top 50%(single pilot ops proof)

 

should i show appreciation to the 90s hire a few years ago who went to netjet making $150+ right away (and had it so well he had a tough time leaving) and proceeded to show everyone his $4M mountain cabin, new cirrus and massive lake house all the while bragging about how cheap his kids college costs were? oh yeah, his “game” was to buy the nicest boat he could with every cent of his post 65 earnings as he had nowhere else to put it.
frankly, I feel for those coming after us as there’s little chance it will be as good as for us or the ones before us. yes, even for the 2 year ca wonders.

 

let me guess-Boeing will make it? lol

 

You can scoff if you want. Your prerogative. Kinda like buying stock options....it's the timing of the bet that's important.

20 years from now when FSD cars are the norm not the exception, military/cargo aircraft are flying automatously , and the public has embraced the technology....?

As long as humans keep effing flying ops up killing people, and the general public understands that planes have had to "fly themselves" in the most demanding weather for years and years and years....they might(will?) change their tune. Featherbedding will be the only stop-gap.

 

That's correct. I always use the elevator analogy. In 1910 every elevator in Manhattan had an operator. I'm sure 'automated' electromechanical ones initially made some people nervous, now nobody except a tiny fraction of the population with a phobia bats an eyelash about getting in one. Ubiquity is coming.

It's anybody's guess how long we can hold it back and maybe we'll get lucky with a high profile accident to keep public opinion on our side a little longer but pretending it's more than a 20 year old's career away is fantastical thinking. Especially since some of you think that 20 year old should fly until 70.