Fair point.

But our general intent and policy to respect heads of state doesn't philosophically apply to obviously illegit rulers.

Maduro was the worst case of that... his populace clearly and quantifiably rejected him.

Even in PRC and DPRK you can kind of argue that rulers have some degree of consent from the governed in that there's been no obvious attempt to replace them.


That's tinfoil hat stuff that we're not going to discuss here. Drop it.

Hamas is an IR proxy, which exists to leverage the perceived plight of the displaced locals to facilitate Iran's ulterior motives.

 

Disaster might not be a strong enough word.

-We replaced an 86 yr old Ayatollah who had cancer and whose regime had become widely unpopular with his 56yr old, more hardline son while giving the Iranian people cause to rally behind the government they were previously trying to overthrow.

-Iran still has enriched Uranium (which they offered to completely surrender during negotiations before the war started)

-SOH was open for commerce previously. Now Iran is asserting control over it and charging 2M in tolls per ship and opening/closing it at their will.

-Saw F-15s and F-35s hit and taken down, diminishing American military credibility.

-US bases destroyed across GCC and failed to adequately defend these countries against Iranian strikes, further diminishing American credibility and trust

-Gave Iran the greatest sanctions relief in decades, allowing it to collect money to fund it's war effort

-Gave Russia sanctions relief as they were providing the Iranians with intelligence to kill Americans, helping to fund the enemies' war effort.

Is this the plenty we have to show for this conflict?

 

Don’t forget our tax money in expensive weapons to deal with the 20k drones.

 

Zero tankers going through the strait right now. So effectively no change, yet oil price has dropped. Eventually this see-sawing of the market based on loud proclamations from both sides is going to be irrelevant. The product won’t be where it needs to be.

 

Again, drop the IL/Hamas conspiracy stuff. I will have the last word on that for clarity of those who might not know...

Hamas is funded/backed/controlled by Iran. Whatever they may have intended to be, IR hijacked them and their cause, turning them into a proxy for IR's interests.

Is it possible that mossad handed a Hamas member a bag of cash? Sure. That's a routine HUMINT intelligence operation, paying a source. Especially in the ME, where they're not culturally inclined to loyalty to institutions or nations, other than self, family, clan. It's the wild, wild west, not what we're used to where people line up on sides of a clearly marked line of scrimmage, with distinct uniforms.

While we think of NFL football, the game over the is soccer... with everybody on a team of one (brief alliances of convenience are possible).

Feel free to start a separate thread on hamas in hangar talk.

Now back to the Iran to the east...

 

I’m thinking the timing of this pseudo ceasefire correlates pretty well with the time necessary to get the remaining Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 82nd airborne into position. I think Iran is about to lose possession of a number of islands - perhaps permanently. The big loser? China. They buy the vast majority of Iran’s oil - as much as 1.4 million barrels a day prior to the war.

 

Worth noting that while you might be able to make a functional weapon with 60% enriched uranium, it would depend on technical skill and it would also be very large and very sensitive to any design, production, or handling errors. Ie, not reliable.

Normally practical nuclear weapons require at least 90% enriched U, and north of 95% for a compact efficient weapon. Little Boy was >90%.

I'd hazard a guess that if IR wanted to detonate a bomb at a fixed location as a test/demonstration, they could probably do that. If they already tried and failed, we might not even know, if it was underground. But I doubt they would even try that, since it would invite consequences from IL for sure.

In order to deliver a weapon via TBM or using one of their long-range heavy bombers (oh wait...), they still have some work to do.

If I was IL, I'd be concerned that they'd build a large crude bomb, load it on a merchant ship, sail it through the Red Sea and Suez, and detonate in the Med off TLV. But IL doesn't need me to figure that out.

 

Multiple "things" can be true at the same time, even if they produce apparent paradoxes.

History is repleat with hubristic actors attempting to influence events by manipulating individuals or groups that end up not following the script. Possibly like Hamas?

Example:
When asked why Hindenburg, bowing to the advice of Franz von Papen and others, had named Hitler as chancellor in January 1933, von Papen replied, "You are wrong, we have only hired him."

It didn't work out as planned.

Consequences from actions taken continue for eternity.
People who substitute action for deliberation usually get poor results, and frequently seed long-term catastrophe.

Hedgehogs are not noted for either their ability to consider multiple factors simultaneously or for their imagination.

 

The IAEA has already said they found 84% enriched dust in non-sanctioned facilities so it’s reasonable to assume they are beyond the 60% mark in some capacity.

 

going to be very hard to hold those islands in the SOH..lives will definitely be lost..idk. I think you may be right, but im not sure it's a good idea.