The future of the industry
07-27-2013 | 05:34 AM
#71
Runs with scissors
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 7,847
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From: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
B.S. right back at ya. Here we go again.... blame EVERYONE and everything else. However, the 'YES' votes speak for themselves, and you can try spinning them whichever way you want.
Some things should be sacred. Airline pension gutted? Your flying outsourced against you? Suspension of Service or the so-called "ALPA nuke" as George E. Hopkins terms it. Again, some things are or should be sacred and/or contested and challenged at every step. I was an ALPA pilot when all this was going down and was absolutely disgusted with how every pilot group folded like a house of cards. I also saw the insane amount of greed by the older, senior pilots, well before the Age 65 rule.
I was laughing my head off at the whole "Taking it back" bull. While our pensions and scope were being gutted along with some paycuts going to 50%.... ALPA was valiantly fighting for TWIC. Seriously?!?
As I said, nothing is sacred to ALPA or US airline pilots. ALPA's 'red line' is a flexible, and easily adjustable target... just threaten them with something. It's embarrassing.
So before you start defending yourself again with how your hands are tied due to RLA, remember... some things in life should be sacred and worth fighting for even if you **** people off. RLA hasn't even been truly challenged in recent history. I'd say gutting the pensions, giving away your flying to 90-seat RJ operator, not to mention cutting some groups' pay by as much as 50% would qualify for a major dispute under RLA, and if not... make a stand and challenge the almost 100-year law! Nope.... house of cards, instead. That's the no-balls part.
Try again.
Some things should be sacred. Airline pension gutted? Your flying outsourced against you? Suspension of Service or the so-called "ALPA nuke" as George E. Hopkins terms it. Again, some things are or should be sacred and/or contested and challenged at every step. I was an ALPA pilot when all this was going down and was absolutely disgusted with how every pilot group folded like a house of cards. I also saw the insane amount of greed by the older, senior pilots, well before the Age 65 rule.
I was laughing my head off at the whole "Taking it back" bull. While our pensions and scope were being gutted along with some paycuts going to 50%.... ALPA was valiantly fighting for TWIC. Seriously?!?
As I said, nothing is sacred to ALPA or US airline pilots. ALPA's 'red line' is a flexible, and easily adjustable target... just threaten them with something. It's embarrassing.
So before you start defending yourself again with how your hands are tied due to RLA, remember... some things in life should be sacred and worth fighting for even if you **** people off. RLA hasn't even been truly challenged in recent history. I'd say gutting the pensions, giving away your flying to 90-seat RJ operator, not to mention cutting some groups' pay by as much as 50% would qualify for a major dispute under RLA, and if not... make a stand and challenge the almost 100-year law! Nope.... house of cards, instead. That's the no-balls part.
Try again.
I've been watching this slow motion train wreck ever since Bush 1 helped Frank Lorenzo take CAL, then Eastern apart. Franky smooth talk showed all the other Airline CEO's that if you can buy enough politicians, you can do what ever the fk you want, and get away with it. That was the time for a National SOS, before there were very many large foreign carriers who could replace us.
Right now, the sword hanging over ALPA's head is Cabotage. There will be no SOS, or any other large scale job actions, because if there were, in about a NY Second, our Politicians will give away the rest of our flying to the highest foreign bidder.
That's why National's only strategy now is; Constructive Appeasement.
Don't rock the boat, or else!
Last edited by Timbo; 07-27-2013 at 05:50 AM.
07-27-2013 | 07:47 AM
#73
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
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From: B757/767
Regionals will shrink dramatically. The new FTDT regs combined with retirements at the majors will cripple them. Not only will they be losing massive efficiencies due to the new FTDT regs, they'll also have a huge lack of qualified applicants.
07-27-2013 | 09:31 AM
#75
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 797
Likes: 0
From: Jet Pilot
Question: in light of the new FTDT regs, what are the chances the majors will operate less flights but with bigger aircraft between given city pairs? In other words, the customer will have less flights to choose from but the flights that are available will be on larger aircraft with more seats than in the past.
07-27-2013 | 10:01 AM
#78
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
Question: in light of the new FTDT regs, what are the chances the majors will operate less flights but with bigger aircraft between given city pairs? In other words, the customer will have less flights to choose from but the flights that are available will be on larger aircraft with more seats than in the past.
07-27-2013 | 10:02 AM
#79
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
07-27-2013 | 11:02 AM
#80
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 111
Likes: 0
Living outside of U.S. made me realized just how much we live in a bubble not realizing what's happening outside...
Due to the signifigance shortfall of new pilot entering the career field, the regionals, NOT the majors, will have a problem with hiring. Does that mean the majors will reduce regional capacity? Maybe, BUT maybe not!
Considering the U.S. is not the only country with pilots who may meet the FAA new requirements, other countries have qualified pilots who are also seeking employment globally. Under the H1B visa program, if an U.S. employer is unable to find and hire a professional employee for an unfilled professional position, said company may temporarily hire a foreign national from outside the U.S. under the H1B visa program.
I remember when I use to fly for a 135 freight company in early yr 2000, 30% of its pilots were foreign nationals working under the H1B visa program because the company was unable to attract and hire legal resident/citizens to fill pilot positions due to the hiring wave that was occurring at the regional/major airlines.
Some scenarios may happen if the regional airlines decides to exploit the H1B visa program.
1. If they are able to find and hire qualified foreign national under the H1B visa program, then regional salaries will remain as they are. Majors retain routes and infrastructure. Everything remains status quo.
2. If regional airlines can not attract foreign national pilots, Regional airlines lose flying and majors lose routes to their competition.
So whats the business solution...
How I see, If regional airlines want retain their current fleet size, and the majors retain the current route structure, the majors will have to increase their regional partners departure fee. The regional airlines will inevitable have to increase their salaries to attract qualified pilots (whether resident/citizens or foreign nationals), OR...Majors reduce regional flying and obtain bigger aircraft while reducing flight frequencies.
Now I know there will be some that will say the regionals will not exploit the H1B program, but it was also be said the majors would take back flying from the regional partners. Currently facts do not support this trend. In fact, its the opposite, Approx 50% of Delta domestic routes are flown by regional airlines compared to 30% in 2005 and United just announced increase regional flying.
Something to ponder...
Due to the signifigance shortfall of new pilot entering the career field, the regionals, NOT the majors, will have a problem with hiring. Does that mean the majors will reduce regional capacity? Maybe, BUT maybe not!
Considering the U.S. is not the only country with pilots who may meet the FAA new requirements, other countries have qualified pilots who are also seeking employment globally. Under the H1B visa program, if an U.S. employer is unable to find and hire a professional employee for an unfilled professional position, said company may temporarily hire a foreign national from outside the U.S. under the H1B visa program.
I remember when I use to fly for a 135 freight company in early yr 2000, 30% of its pilots were foreign nationals working under the H1B visa program because the company was unable to attract and hire legal resident/citizens to fill pilot positions due to the hiring wave that was occurring at the regional/major airlines.
Some scenarios may happen if the regional airlines decides to exploit the H1B visa program.
1. If they are able to find and hire qualified foreign national under the H1B visa program, then regional salaries will remain as they are. Majors retain routes and infrastructure. Everything remains status quo.
2. If regional airlines can not attract foreign national pilots, Regional airlines lose flying and majors lose routes to their competition.
So whats the business solution...
How I see, If regional airlines want retain their current fleet size, and the majors retain the current route structure, the majors will have to increase their regional partners departure fee. The regional airlines will inevitable have to increase their salaries to attract qualified pilots (whether resident/citizens or foreign nationals), OR...Majors reduce regional flying and obtain bigger aircraft while reducing flight frequencies.
Now I know there will be some that will say the regionals will not exploit the H1B program, but it was also be said the majors would take back flying from the regional partners. Currently facts do not support this trend. In fact, its the opposite, Approx 50% of Delta domestic routes are flown by regional airlines compared to 30% in 2005 and United just announced increase regional flying.
Something to ponder...
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