Eucatastrophy

The last Defense Authorizations bill actually allowed VSP for 6-20 years and VSP up to 4x Involuntary Separation Pay (ISP), but the SECAF limited it to 6 years to "no more than exactly" 12 years and VSP = 2x ISP for FY07.
It seems to me that the next VSP group would be more like 13-15 years, since they'd end up double-tapping the 1995 yeargroup. The last matrix (12 July) showed 570 overages total for the 1992-1994 yeargroups.
Question for wickedsprint - for The FY07 VSP amount was 2x Involuntary Sep. Pay, any words on what the FY08 VSP amount might be? Is 4x a possibility. I'd think it would have to be more than 2x for enough Majors & LtCols to take the VSP option.

wickedsprint

A quasi VERY unofficial update, one of our flight CC's has an inside email supposedly about someone who sat in on an AFPC briefing, word ont he street, there WILL be a RIF for the 02 guys, and same style of VSP as last year, IE 6 year people etc. This again is borderline double hearsay and completely disagrees with what the force shaping office told me directly, but the original source of this hearsay seemed confident of the subject matter.

As far as amounts, I forgot to ask. It seems to me that if they were only offering 200 slots..they'd wanna get their money's worth, and not even consider people as old as 13 years, as you can get twice as many people with 6yr captains. It is my theory, and MY theory only, that if they only offer it to 12-15yr people, and only have 200 slots..and No RIF, they have no reason to double the money, or even quadrupal it. Again this is my theory. Here is what I think is going to happen, they will announce sometime in the future, not today though and it will essentially be the same program as last year, as this makes the most sense, and gets the most people separated for the money. I hate playing the waiting game. I hope they offer VSP like last year..and if numbers are not met..then they consider a RIF, that way I get my commercial ratings paid for.

wickedsprint

woops..double post

EFD01

I don't think AFPC sees it as getting 2 people out for the cost of 1, the most "bang for the buck". I thought the whole point of the FS was to "shape" the force, i.e. X # of 02 Capts, X # of 95 Majs.

wickedsprint

FYI...2002 is the highest overage right now at 510 people. The actual point and driving goal is the overall end strength, which needs to be around 314-316k by the end of FY09. That is why we are questioning cutting one 12yr person for 140k when you could give 70k to two different 6yr people who in addition are more likely to leave at 6yrs than 12yrs. The whole thing that drove the forceshaping was end strength. If they truly wanted to balance the force, they would take overage officers and move them to underage slots.They're only concerned about the total, "balancing the force" means officer to enlisted ratio, not balancing officer yr groups. That is how it was explained to me during the AFPC roadshow.

All we can do is speculate until the actual info is released. The only thing that makes sense in offering 12yr people money is that they weren't eligible last go around. Maybe they'll offer it to 02yr group people and anyone else in an overage with at least 6yrs, that'd make everyone happy. Either way I suspect when the info comes out it's gonna be chariots of fire down to MPF.

JOHNNYB

I'm going to be the first on the list at the MPF for separation. Not too long ago, the AFPC website changed from saying the "middle of August" to "August 15th" for the FY08 Force Shaping program. I speculate that they stopped the program last year because units were getting hit hard by the program, as ours did. However, our squadrons that lost folks due to VSP/LADSC have regained numbers by bringing in more guys from UPT (There's definitely not a problem of having too few ABM's)

NoGoodName

No matter when they drop the Force Shaping message, they will give us at least a week or so to digest the info. That was promised by AFPC. I guess last year's was a complete mess as people stormed their MPF as soon as the message dropped and some shady things happened...

JOHNNYB

My only problem with the "digestion period" is that I'll be deployed by the time it hits, plus the week, and I'll have to fax everything to the MPF instead of doing it in person.

wickedsprint

Does this mean you won't be able to start the ball rolling for a week, or they won't send your package to AFPC until a week?

Eucatastrophy

Sorry up front for the long posting.

First, my interpretation of the Force Shaping website is that, by law, an officer can't be RIF'd unless they were first eligible for VSP, so to RIF someone and then turn around and offer the same yeargroup VSP again would clearly open the AF up for all kinds of legal action. The AF already had to settle class action lawsuits from their 90's RIF actions.

Some more speculation of my own: I understood that the ultimate goal was to save $ on personnel costs over the long run to fund weapon-systems, and that the end strength goal was only a way to get there. In other words, if you can get a Major or LtCol to take VSP, you actually save twice the salary of a jr captain and never have to pay retirement - and the captain may still get out of his own accord, while the O4/O5 can see the end of the tunnel and will probably want to hold out for retirement. A one-time VSP payment, whether $120K or $400K is really just "budget dust" compared to the long term costs of salary, BAH, health care, retirement, etc. (and VSP is a lot cheaper than "early retirement"). This is why my money's on the 13-15 year groups this time around (and my hopes, since I'd be in that window) But of course, I also understand that common sense is not a factor in most AFPC decisions.

Finally, a separate thought - I wonder if AFPC realizes that when they RIF'd without a good plan in the 90s, they also compensated by bringing on a whole lot more prior enlisted folks through OTS than normal. These are captains that look like matrix overages in their yeargroups right now, but weren't eligible for the FY07 VSP/RIF. They will, however, be eligible for retirement in the next few years - the bottom will drop out in those same yeargroups that just got cut through the VSP/RIF, leaving a huge shortage of FGOs. SSDD.