wickedsprint

No disrespect, but I am not sure what you're implying with this paragraph, my year group(2002) has not been riffed(yet), and we have also not been eligible for VSP and currently show the highest overage at 510 people. I'm slower than your average bear sometimes.

I see your points about the long term monetary benefits to cutting a LtCol or even a Major from the 12-15yr group peopl but since when has the USAF EVER looked to the long term?, if they did we'd never have RIFs or mass hiring sprees. I only think it seems off to ONLY offer VSP with a limited number of slots to 12-15yr people when they could likely get all of their numbers from the 2002 class alone in a lot of the career fields, especially when most people from the 12-15yr group being able to see the light at the end of the tunnel as you put it are going to be very hesitant to leave with only 140k.

To sum it up, neither of us know what is going to happen, we've heard very contradicting rumours and we both hope our respective YR groups are offered VSP before they RIF us. So basically we sit and wait, and hopefully be able to drink a tall one in a few weeks after that glorious AFPC confirmation email saying we've been approved.

I wonder, can they just cut the 2002 yr group people, make us leave before our 6yr point and not pay us a dime? I think though that if that was on the table, they woulda done it last year, or even the first year they did forceshaping. For whatever reason my career field was exempt the first goaround, and they never touched us again, hence us being an overage of 73.

NoGoodName

They will not take applications for a week or so that the end user can have some time to make decision/get signatures. Guess we'll have to wait and see. This sudden last minute delay has my curiousity at an all time high.

JOHNNYB

All I know is that I'm tired of deploying and being gone every holiday. I will gladly take the VSP money and walk (2002 year group). There's no way they're going to get these supposed numbers out of the 12-14 year group. Those guys are locked in for the long haul. It's nice speculating and fantasizing about what may come about in the next week, but no one really knows what is going to happen (i.e. look at all of the different posts about Force Shaping in this thread and the other on here).

JOHNNYB

Looks like the AFPC website doesn't list August 15th as the FY08 release date and now only says "FY08 Force Shaping Programs COMING SOON." They're probably meeting Thursday or Friday to discuss; similar to when the old officer matrix was discussed.

AFPirate

I think they're just teasing us...COMING SOON!!!

Blah.

wickedsprint

The original source of this email was the force shaping office themselves, and then followed up by some un-official hearsay from people who have sat in meetings regarding this info. A good friend at Vandenberg said his SQ/CC came in, asked for EVERY person in the 2002 YR group to immediatly submit their SOS and Masters degree completion rates, but would not give a reason why she wanted that info. Sounds like she heard the rumor of a RIF, even though AFPC told the AFTimes and me over the phone they likely weren't doing one...key word being "likely" The other hearsay source also involved another squadron commander who mentioned he heard about a RIF coming down the chain for this year and forwarded that info to a co-worker, who told me. I asked my squadron commander what she knew, and she has heard through unnoficial channels that there will be a RIF. She would not go into details. The one who sent the most detailed info to the co-worker mentioned that VSP is likely going to work like last year.

So basically we have what the force shaping office submitted to SECAF, which most of us seem to agree will not get the numbers, we also have a delay in them announcing the info, and we have three instances of squadron commanders either suggesting they know about a RIF, or asking for information ASAP from their 2002 yr group Captains that would only really be useful if a retention package needs to be put together. Every one of these examples are from people I know firsthand. Fishy.

Hopefully we get some money out of the deal, They could always toss us out right before we hit 6 and not pay us a dime.

zondaracer

What is the chance they will let someone in 06 year group get out via FS? I just want to fly and the AF says I cant so I just want to go civilian route now.

JOHNNYB

Very nice..my DO asked me how far I was in my SOS in correspondence. I assumed that was just to determine who went next to in-residence. I still think that was his purpose, but I don't doubt there will be another RIF. I think the "war" will cease to escalate and is going to be drawing down in the next couple of years since everyone (including the civilian airlines) are wanting to do more with less.

Eucatastrophy

I think all the theories posted on the '02 yeargroup are pretty solid - too senior for a force shaping board (?) and now rolling over 6 years, 500+ overages, etc. We'll just have to see - again AFPC does not necessarily use logic and common sense in their planning processes.
On a negative note, one way of culling the more senior yeargroups would be to slash our promotion rates and force us out, but that would still take longer than the end of FY09, with above the zone opportunities, etc.
Ultimately, the AF won't get to their numbers without reducing all the remaining overage yeargroups ('02 and '88-94), so I'm sure '02 cuts will happen at some point before the end of FY09.
Note that the Enlisted Force shaping matrix has totally disappearred from the FS website. Could the AF be coving the increase in Army and Marine Corp endstrength by cutting more officers to keep more "battlefield airmen" who more directly support the Army and Marines?

wickedsprint

I still wonder if they can outright cut us, and force us to leave before our 6yr point next may so they don't have to give us anything. Again, I think they would have done that with last board though, at least I hope so.