I’ve had 3 flights cancel in the last month for lack of a FA.

I’m not waiting due to pipeline backups...personal choice & wrapping up old job. Sorry for the confusion.

Had one of the senior line check attendants (proper term?) in on a trip last month. She was saying the first round of contract negations the company offered a .60 raise...

Had another my last trip, she’s been here a month off IOE and has already turned in her resignation.

From what my last captain knows, now that MX has their contract, negations for the FA and pilot group should be coming quickly, and hopefully in writing by summer.

But welcome to the rumor mill where everything is made up and the points don’t matter.

What is FA pay? I kinda figured it was bad since one of the instructors told me we lost some hotels because they were stealing the light bulbs out of the rooms. I know toilet paper and soap is fair game, but light bulbs?

(nevermind)

I’m hearing SAV

Please don't tell me crewmembers are stealing toilet paper from hotels. Jesus.

The problem with FA pay, is PSA can run an ad in any small-town newspaper in the US and have a hundred applicants show up. Three weeks or so later, they'll have created twenty or thirty new flight attendants.

There is realistically no barrier to entry for flight attendants. So long as PSA can find people who can read, speak, and understand English, flight attendant pay will be low.

It would be nice if they were paid enough they could start tipping the hotel van drivers, at a minimum.

Attrition is picking up - 39 pilots left from April to May seniority list. A third of that number are FOs who were in training.

PHL base - 11 R1 lines
ORF base - 9 R1 lines

Wow! That's a ton

Well that’s disappointing

It's just initial (first) month. It'll pick up from there.

Are these R1 numbers the initial amount of R1 slots? And would that be expected to increase over the next few months? I start training next month and am looking at ORF as my base. Thanks!

Yes
Yes

The new bases will likely grow in the next several months and also undergo some seniority shakeouts. Hard to predict what it will look like for a May '18 hire.

Last month's most Jr Flow DOH: Sep 2009
This month's most Jr Flow DOH: Apr 2011

Thanks for the information. Good Lord willing it will be a brief stay on Reserve.

I’ll start getting excited when I see those 2014 flow numbers... :D

Spring of next year probably.

What are you forecasting for a new hire? I dont think 6-7 years is realistic. Have a friend coming up with her R-ATP mins and thinking of PSA for ORF base. Lives in PHF, so it's an easy drive.

Flow times are most strongly dependent on how many people leave for other airlines (or McDonald's or heaven or anyplace else). If the economy stays strong and every major is vacuuming the regionals clean to replace retirees, it could come below 6 years.

If the economy tanks and AA furloughs ... it could be a loooong time.

Even if the economy takes, an airline that’s retiring a third of its pilot group in the next 6-7 years most likely won’t need to furlough; they’ll just meter hiring.

If the economy tanks and hiring at UAL, SW, DL, AA, FDX, UPS, etc all "meter" then both attrition from PSA and flows to AA will slow and time to flow will be much higher.

Did they leave, or did they fail out?

The benefit of the flow agreements at the AA WOs is that if hiring is metered at mainline a little bit due to some unforeseen circumstance, the flows will essentially make up the bulk of the classes and there will be essentially zero off the street hiring at AA. But as stated above, it would take something grievous to really halt anything at this point. AA can’t afford to stop training due to the massive retirements.

Even if AA keeps taking 10/month, current flow times are dependent on other places taking 10+ per month also. 20 total departures per month will move through 1680 people in 7 years. If everyone upstream of PSA stops hiring, flow times could go well over a decade even if AA doesn’t change.

And? If everyone’s hiring slows to a trickle, it would still be better to be at an AA WO because at least what attrition and movement you will experience will still be off the top of the seniority list. Other airlines will simply stagnate.

And ... The original question was "what will flow times be" and the answer is that they are highly sensitive to the overall hiring environment and it's not hard to construct a scenario where flow times go over 10 years.

Can you say "American Eagle"... presently known as Envoy....

Envoy is presently know as... Envoy

:confused:

Are you unaware that American Eagle was an airline before it was a brand ? Might want to look up their flow program and the protected 824....

I know Envoy used to be Eagle. I was being facetious, focusing on when you said presently.

Gotcha.

Text is hard to read some times.

To those asking about the future, have a backup plan and if the getting ever gets not good ride it out or bail. No garuntees in any line of business...

KORF and KPHL went pretty junior for Round 1 on both CA and FO sides.

How Junior? I hope to hit the line by July sometime and am looking at ORF. I'm guessing DOH is based on training start date, which will be at the beginning of May.

Which thread are the monthly grids posted on? Can we make it a sticky thread?

Are you in training now? If you started training in May, you won't hit the line in July....

I start on the 7th. Obviously assuming no training day delays I'd finish at some point in the latter part of July or early August. I know from the Interview brief and talking with folks in training currently there have been some delays depending on how they track you, -200 or -7/-9 first.

You need at ATP-CTP?

Nope, ready to start.

For May R1
KORF is the most junior base on CA and FO side
KPHL is 4th most junior on CA side and 3rd on the FO side.

The full grid will be posted here in 12 days.

There quite a few of us coming onboard that want ORF on the FO side. It's at 42 FOs in the base as of now. It will expand.


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