Not sure where you're coming from for your first statement. 48 offers a year minimum must go to PSA. No other regionals are involved with our LOA. So they can interview until they take 4 that month, and they've met their commitment for that month. Then they can go outside seniority order and higher based on quota etc. Idiot failures may be reinterviewed once they've interviewed everyone else on the seniority list.

As far as the 50 seaters go it is 30 MINIMUM airplanes we are due to receive, so once our 200 leases are done in 2019, placing the 200s with newer RJs is possible. For now, it would be the mix of 200s, 700s, plus 30 minimum X type larger RJ. We assume which type , but we'll find out soon for sure. More info to come publically after close of the merger and other announcements from mainline/AA.

 

I can tell you the 200s won't disappear with the coming of airplanes. The numbers our company is prepping for and the investment we've made in expanding far out weighs any shrinkage.... We are growing.

 

Evidently PSA is the next Jonestown with what I see from you guys. I'd say don't drink the kool aid but I'm afraid it's too late.

 

I'm not grasping at anything you think your 401k is amazing it's not... Now you think no one in the industry has any rigs. My last dump of an airline had duty rigs and my current has both trip and duty.... Maybe if you did more industry research and educated your coworkers you wouldn't have voted in a concessionary contract.

 

You had said that 48 must be guaranteed hire from PSA the previous time and that is where I had took the number. I do understand that no other regional is part of a contract that you guys voted for just like you weren't part of nor asked to vote in our existing contract.

Anyway, they can "fail" someone and that individual now would have to wait till the whole seniority list is interviewed to be able to get his/her chance at a re-interview? Ok is any of this contingent upon the staffing needs at PSA at that point in time - the 4 per month, re-interview, etc.? Also, is it a requirement, per the contract, that 4 out of X amount of new hires for a class per month has to come from PSA? Or is it that if 6 PSA pilots interview that month, then at least 4 need to be hired?

 

How many classes are PSA holding each month for the growth that you guys are about to have here shortly?

 

I think we have about 535 on the seniority list. When i started here we had this same number of pilots and the same number of airplanes. So nothing has changed. If we are getting more airplanes anytime soon then they haven't started ramping up for them yet. All hiring so far has been for attrition. On average i have moved up 40 slots/year. Some years moved faster than others. But 40 on average.

 

Every regional is seeing a lot of movement. All you gained with your TA was an additional 12 pilots per year, 1 a month. That doesn't add a massive amount of movement. That's the math. Still feel like a good deal?

You gave concessions for insignificant amount of increased movement.

It's a gigantic gamble and the "reward" you've received isn't worth it. Majors are hiring and planning to keep hiring at an unprecedented pace. You, along with every other regional, is going to see massive amounts of movement because of projected hiring. All you added was 12 additional pilots to mainline per year.

However, what happens if/when the economy tanks or the growth doesn't pan out. Your entire gamble is based on an extremely rosy picture. You are assuming nothing will go wrong and airline history has proven that wrong time and time again. Yes there are a massive number of pilots scheduled to retire, that is cause for hope for all regional airline pilots, BUT regional pilots should be prepared for the worse and the contracts should reflect this.

The underlying issue is that you and the rest of PSA have such strong fixation on your own little world that you are incapable of seeing the rest of the industry or the long term damage you are doing.

Every statement you have made so far reveals how selfish you truly are. "This is great for PSA pilots, PSA pilots will upgrade quickly, PSA pilots will move on to mainline, etc."

Even if your unicorn and rainbow dreams works out exactly as you have stated, your sell out still will not have been worth it. Yes you will be at mainline and thinking you've made it, but PSA will still exist and the legacy you left behind will still exist. That legacy is a lowered cost structure at regional carriers that will likely become regional industry wide because of the trend YOU set.

Management does not care who flies their airplanes, all they care about is costs. So the next time mainline carriers get into financial problems (which will happen) they will come after mainline scope and it will likely get relaxed further. The only place that mainline really makes money is international. That is their bread and butter, however that will come under increased attack from global carriers like Emirates. Margins will likely erode and mainline CEOs will go after labor to fix the problem. One easy area they will try is to outsource 737/A320 sized flying to regional carriers. They'll furlough you and tell you to reapply at PSA or any other myriad of other regional carriers that now all have pay caps (because of the trend you set). This happened at pre merger United with their 737 classic fleet.

You won't feel so smart then. That is one possibility, but there are dozens of bad things that can happen that could force bankruptcies or internal restructuring at mainline carriers. Fuel price increase, war, recession, SARS, terrorists, etc.

I'm not saying this will happen, but there is a possibility that it can. I think the saying, "Plan for the worst, hope for the best," adequately applies.

If instead you had said NO, then that would have made it easier for Piedmont and every other carrier following to say NO. Pinnacle could have been an isolated case. Regional compensation and costs would have risen making them less attractive for outsourcing. That poverty level cost structure could have been greatly reduced or even eliminated. Instead now, because of PSA, Pinnacle is the new trend and the poverty level cost structure is now increased.

Your biggest issue is you think only of yourself and the next 8-12 months of your career. What about the next 8-12 years or even beyond?

You have the same shortsighted attitude that ALPA national has and it is the reason why pilots will never make any meaningful long term gains. You need to see the big picture.

There is nothing special about your pilot group, you guys aren't top gun. Every carrier is seeing pilots getting picked up. Every group is going to become junior in a hurry because of the projected hiring. PSA will not have any discernible longevity advantage.

Also, when I said preferential I meant that you would get the interviews. However you do not have guaranteed jobs, whereas Eagle and Compass do. They go over when their number is called, no need for them to stress or worry about an interview.

Expect 48 to be the maximum, sorry your carrier will have staffing issues like everyone else. Management will try and reduce the impact of short staffing in order to keep all those new airplanes you are so excited about flying.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see them announce they are keeping the CRJ-200s. After all it is a good way to try and get people through the front door. Reality will be different though because there are simply not enough pilots available to fill everyone's needs.

Take RAH for example. They do not have any 50 seaters set to park and a huge amount of growth between the AA E-175s and UA Q-400s. Yet despite this they are having problems keeping pace with attrition. Be sure all the new hire classes are full, but net hiring isn't keeping pace with growth.

Bedford has hinted in a conference call with investors that they might need to park their 50 seaters in order to prioritize the larger aircraft. The exact same thing will happen to you.

So I'm sure they'll put out the press release saying they are keeping all the current planes and all the new ones are growth. I'm sure you've been fed those rumors as well. The -200s will get parked though because there will be no one to fly them, unless there is a recession (they might get parked anyways to reduce capacity) but then the mainline doors close and then you get to live with your pay caps.

Announcements mean nothing, ask Eagle how close they got to their announced hiring of 600 pilots in a year.

 

First I'd like to thank you for a non-argumentative, thought out post.

I agree with a lot of what you say, with the difference that while yes, it was selfish....I cannot be a martyr. I have a mortgage. BILLs. And a career. It sucks, but I cannot worry myself about how my vote will affect people 20 years from now. It's my job...my paycheck. Selfish yes. Practical...you bet. And with the realistic threat of a shutdown, I'm happy we are seeing new life now.

Second, I was going to give you more insight but your last paragraph made something clear: you're a glass half empty guy. Nothing wrong with that, but now you admit even WITH the announcement of growth and 200s staying, you still find ways to ensure this can't be the case, management is lying, and life's over anyway. So, even when things look bright for us next year and we can both we on here and say well, look at that. Exactly as planned. Your negativity and old witch attitude will still be shaking a finger at us saying, oh they'll shrink you soon.......

I can't argue with the doom and gloom mentality. We are being built to become a larger regional airline, with greater presence and new look. You'll see more of this past merger close and announcements for us.

 

You realize that if Eagle accepts the next concessionary deal the company offers all your "growth" is just ashes in the wind right? On one hand I hope Eagle holds the line, on the other I'd love for eagle to stab PSA in the back just as PSA stabbed Eagle.

Remember someone else will always be out there to underbid you and use the exact same logic you used to justify it. That's the regional industry, you weren't the first and you won't be the last.

Purdue has a great point though, these downward contracts put pressure on mainline pilot groups. If regional pilots actually stood up for themselves it would become less cost effective for mainlines to outsource thereby increasing the amount of jobs available there.