Lost decade 2.0?
08-18-2020, 01:07 PM
#143
On Reserve
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: Why don't you have a seat right over there.
Posts: 14
Originally Posted by Learflyer
Could be another lost decade. Who knows. A lot of young pilots in this forum were in denial and discounting what us older pilots were saying about our lost decade. Who knew you guys would have it worse! Good luck.
08-18-2020, 08:16 PM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
This is easily another lost decade. How is that even a question? IATA said 2024 for recovery. That's probably optimistic. You most likely won't see 2019 levels on the domestic side for 3-5 yrs and 5-7 yrs for the international side. The only thing those fancy pilot retirement charts will do is ease the airlines in to their plan of permanently shrink to a portion of what they were in 2019. How much, we don't know. If you're at the regionals, it's 2007-8 again where you'll be 7-8+ yr RJ FOs. If you're at a major, at least there are still lots of retirements so hopefully time on furlough won't be too long.
Covid19 presents an existential threat. No airline can survive with travel demand being at 25-30% like it is right now. Summer travel is about to come to close. After Labor day through week of Thanksgiving, that's almost 2.5 months of almost no leisure travel (everyone back in schools, jobs) and a majority being business travel. That's gone. The next 2 months are gonna be horrendous. OAG just published updated September and October schedules for all the airlines. BRUTAL!
https://www.airliners.net/forum/view...?f=3&t=1450555
Covid19 presents an existential threat. No airline can survive with travel demand being at 25-30% like it is right now. Summer travel is about to come to close. After Labor day through week of Thanksgiving, that's almost 2.5 months of almost no leisure travel (everyone back in schools, jobs) and a majority being business travel. That's gone. The next 2 months are gonna be horrendous. OAG just published updated September and October schedules for all the airlines. BRUTAL!
https://www.airliners.net/forum/view...?f=3&t=1450555
08-19-2020, 04:05 AM
#145
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
The airlines have to deal with two things
1) pandemic pre-vaccine
2) economy post vaccine
#1 is clearly a disaster and the longer peoples heads get held underwater, the more carriers will fold.
#2 isn’t necessarily a lost decade. People guess, but nobody really knows how that’s gonna play out
1) pandemic pre-vaccine
2) economy post vaccine
#1 is clearly a disaster and the longer peoples heads get held underwater, the more carriers will fold.
#2 isn’t necessarily a lost decade. People guess, but nobody really knows how that’s gonna play out
08-19-2020, 06:13 AM
#146
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,656
Well if you want to really feel bad about our recovery prospects there is this.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/08/1...iers-struggle/
Some notable quotes from the article.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/08/1...iers-struggle/
Some notable quotes from the article.
We were all hoping that by the fall the virus might run its course,” said Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly. “Obviously, that has proven to be dead wrong
When Consumer Reports surveyed more than 1,000 people in June about their comfort with various activities during the pandemic, 70% said flying was very or somewhat unsafe. They rated going to a hospital emergency room or standing in line to vote as safer.
I don’t know anything about this person who is sitting a foot away from me,” Kontak said. “They took the bottom line or the dollar over the safety of passengers. Next time, I’d rather drive back to Ohio than fly — it’s safer because I can control it.
Standard & Poor’s said this week that the industry’s prospects have gone “from bad to worse,” with global air traffic dropping by up to 70% this year. In May, S&P said a 55% drop was a worst-case scenario.“It’s going to be a slower and more uneven recovery than one might have expected,” S&P analyst Philip Baggaley said.
08-19-2020, 07:55 AM
#147
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,594
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
This is easily another lost decade.
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
08-19-2020, 07:58 AM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,656
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
No wonder most of my fellow millennials are all socialist.
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
08-19-2020, 08:15 AM
#149
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 417
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
No wonder most of my fellow millennials are all socialist.
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
08-19-2020, 08:18 AM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 774
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
No wonder most of my fellow millennials are all socialist.
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
2 lost decades in 30 years so far?
How in the hell are we supposed to buy a house, save for retirement, etc?
Good point, the Great Depression saw a major advance towards socialism with the new deal. This crisis may be another huge step. I still don’t think there’s a massive groundswell for socialism, Bernie would be the dem nominee is there was.
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