Could they hire enough of the kind of people they want, who are also willing to start on RJ's for low pay and train them fast enough? Maybe.

Some people would jump at the chance to fly an RJ with a mainline number. A lot of the mil people might not sign up for that paycut, might just get some other airline job (or non-airline job, for which they are also marketable).

A turnkey arrangement allows rapid integration of planes & crews (FARs allow that without re-training everybody).

 

My argument was that there isn’t a need for a stapler. The legacy company could simply hire the same regional pilots affected by taking the flying in house as new hires instead of a stapler and avoid all longevity or integration issues. Those pilots wouldn’t be 10 year regional pilots transferring over, they would simply be year 1 new hires just like any other applicant. No pass longevity, vacation accrual, etc. to deal with. Another option is always a legit flow type deal. After so long a regional flows up to a legacy and is treated as just another new hire along with military and OTS pilots.

 

Well rumor has it both AA and DAL might increase flow numbers at their WO.

 

This is all purely hypothetical and highly unlikely, but if a company like United were to take back the 175’s that they own, the regionals currently flying those aircraft wouldn’t need to fill those sim slots and they would become available for other companies to lease. SkyWest for example is a company that both operates and leases aircraft. If a legacy were to approach them with an offer to lease aircraft and sims, that could be a better deal than simply losing the revenue when the flying is pulled anyway.

Things are changing again. Some smaller markets are losing service while others are seeing larger aircraft. One very effective way to deal with a shortage of pilots, is to simply require fewer pilots. Instead of 6 flights on a 175, they get 3 flights on a 737. The shortage of pilots is an industry issue, not something only affecting a specific company. The industry will adapt, and I expect that adaptation to involve fewer flights, serving larger markets on larger aircraft. Another option would be a modern and efficient 50 seat aircraft. Embraer is talking about a turboprop, but what they are talking about wouldn’t fit most scope clauses since it has more than 50 seats. Either way, the clock is ticking, aircraft are aging, scope isn’t changing, and replacements don’t seem to be likely. What ever happens, we’re all just spectators along for the ride.

 

Those Sim slots would not become available. My reference is this, years ago Mesa was working on a 170-190 cert so they could fly UA 175 birds. SkyWest management bought out every 170-190 sim available to make JO’s operation more expensive. They had Mesa flying crews to Paris, it won’t be a simple as you say.

 

Full disclosure: SkyWest was doing sims in Paris too at one point.

 

If legacies (not just United) we’re to start taking back more flying and operate 175’s, SkyWest wouldn’t want those sim slots to sit vacant as internal demand diminished and would then make them available for lease. This is all just fantasy speculation since the legacies are not likely to take 175’s in house. UAX will keep all of the 175’s where they are and therefore utilize the training slots with UAX pilots. I think that the most likely scenario is that the regionals have all of the 70/76 seat aircraft that they will ever have and that they will simply shrink as the 50 seat fleet is phased out. UAX for instance would consist of 175’s and 550’s, while UAL covers everything else. Larger, more efficient, and comfortable aircraft with reduced frequency serving the most lucrative markets seems to be where the market and Kirby are taking us.

 

“May you live in interesting times.” - attributed to an ancient Chinese proverb.

2022 (and beyond) will be known as interesting times.

 

Where did you hear that one?

 

This true, it was a good deal, especially if you prior time in type.