Is the regional model imploding?
11-08-2022 | 06:36 PM
#91
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Pangolin is right, a major has 1000 (max) retiring per year and they are able to train 2000. The airlines are absolutely replacing the covid early outs and catching up with retirements. The hiring will not be this crazy 2 years from now. Legacy Airline jobs will be harder to come by. Let's hope we get these contracts hammered out before that happens and we lose any shred of leverage currently held.
11-09-2022 | 06:51 AM
#92
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Pangolin is right, a major has 1000 (max) retiring per year and they are able to train 2000. The airlines are absolutely replacing the covid early outs and catching up with retirements. The hiring will not be this crazy 2 years from now. Legacy Airline jobs will be harder to come by. Let's hope we get these contracts hammered out before that happens and we lose any shred of leverage currently held.
https://i.ibb.co/NNgmXx1/E504-F7-FA-...AB285-F4-D.jpg
Most current hiring at legacies only covers their incentivized early retirements for COVID.
The majors will need to replace their FUTURE retirees and staff those new aircraft while the ULCCs (including all the new kids on the block) and LCCs continue their own expansions. And the regionals have already nearly exhausted the DEC supply.
11-09-2022 | 06:59 AM
#93
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i disagree. Look at the order books for new narrow bodies at the majors. Then look at those at the regionals.
https://i.ibb.co/NNgmXx1/E504-F7-FA-...AB285-F4-D.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/NNgmXx1/E504-F7-FA-...AB285-F4-D.jpg
11-09-2022 | 07:07 AM
#94
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All those orders are not all growth. A lot are to replace aging fleets. Think about all the 757 and 767 delta and United are going to retire in the next 5ish years. They also have older 320 and 737 they are probably looking to replace by the time these narrow bodies roll in.
For the ULCCs and new majors like Breeze, it’s entirely expansion. Do some research.
11-09-2022 | 07:57 AM
#95
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United 200 aircraft order last year is not to expand by 200 aircraft more than half is to replace aging aircraft. By the time those planes come in in 5-10 years they will have plenty to retire.
11-09-2022 | 08:37 AM
#96
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From: CRJ9 CA
The problem there is that you’re going up against math with wishful thinking.
There is, by regulation, a hard cap on how much flying can be done. The number of captains is dictating where the cap is set. You talk about keeping the ball rolling, but what you describe is an airline forced to continually shrink. That is, by definition, not sustainable.
A few more obviously doesn’t equate to expansion, it equates to reducing the rate of the shrinkage. You need some more to get back to even. Expansion? That takes even MORE
There is, by regulation, a hard cap on how much flying can be done. The number of captains is dictating where the cap is set. You talk about keeping the ball rolling, but what you describe is an airline forced to continually shrink. That is, by definition, not sustainable.
A few more obviously doesn’t equate to expansion, it equates to reducing the rate of the shrinkage. You need some more to get back to even. Expansion? That takes even MORE
11-09-2022 | 09:24 AM
#97
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Every fo isn’t starting at zero.
It’s going to take some time to recover but it’s not a negative death spiral.
11-09-2022 | 01:56 PM
#99
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An interesting thought experiment is "Imagine the regional industry is stable then transitions to unsustainable pilot losses. What would that look like?"
Another thought experiment "If the regional model of February 2019 is not sustainable, is there a smaller model that is?" IE, how many ASM/year can be sold sustainably paying current labor rates and how many airframes does that translate to." If you assume the US can support, say two hundred 76-seat jets, what does that look like?
Another thought experiment "If the regional model of February 2019 is not sustainable, is there a smaller model that is?" IE, how many ASM/year can be sold sustainably paying current labor rates and how many airframes does that translate to." If you assume the US can support, say two hundred 76-seat jets, what does that look like?
11-10-2022 | 08:43 AM
#100
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