That is a very good term for it, unfortunately.

That recalling and hiring is because of the anticipated attrition to mainline, and additional flying is due to the departure of the Freedom flying. You can bet a dollar to donuts that management will be looking to further reduce the number of DCI carriers. That is a publicly stated goal of RA.

 

Well said. The good times are amazing and the bad times are trying indeed. This job is a lifestyle, once you understand that you can either A: accommodate your life to fit it, B: go crazy trying to live your life the way your friends in other careers do, or C: quit. Options A & C are the most reasonable, however a surprising majority of the guys I fly with seem stuck on B

Like has been said, getting paid to fly airplanes is great 3 to 4 days a week is amazing, its the lifestyle that will get you down if you let it.

 

Well said!!

 

Are the "wholly" owned more at risk for cuts or not?

 

I believe so.
We don't have any guarantee's like Skywest or ASA. Wholly owns can be just shut down without any court issues because DAL isn't going to sue themselves.

We could benefit faster but we are the easiest to get rid of. I suspect we will survive but it's going to be a very bumpy ride.

 

DAL's money is CMR/Mesaba/Compass' money when it hits the bottom line. Period. The game DAL does on paper is unimportant. If you use your theory then why would DAL set-up CMR so that they have never lost money?

 

If it is truly this easy then I would suspect they would have already gotten rid of one or two of the wholly owned already. This again begs the question of what is the true identity of the wholly owned companies, are they really Delta in disguise?

 

Excellent point. In the legal world there is a concept known as piercing the corporate veil. The court tries to clear up the coporate veil or fog if you will that disguises the true identity of the corporation and its myriad of subsidiaries. Delta owns Mesaba and hence legally and techincally, Mesaba is a part of Delta. To argue that Mesaba is not a part of Delta is like trying to argue your own right arm is not part of your body. Someone said we are slaves to mother Delta. Well that applies to mainline DAL pilots as well. They are all just numbers to DAL. They are deluding themselves if they don't beileve that.

As for getting rid of WO regionals, you are right. DAL would have sold off or dismantle Mesaba if that made sense any business sense. But they have not, obviously because it would not make any sense to do it in light of their stated plan to bring in most of the DCI flying to WO.

I do believe the number of regionals flying for DAL will be reduced as stated by DAL CEO but the probability of Mesaba being one of the survivor is better than some non-WO whose contracts are coming up for renewal.

Mesaba is losing roughly 46 Saabs in total. That translates into approx 460 pilots. XJ has already furloughed 150 pilots. That means another 360 will be furloughed but part of that is offset by 45 flowthru in 2010 and 108 in 2011 if DAL hires. Unless Mesaba gets more airplanes in return, Mesaba will be a 60 airplane airline with roughly 650 pilots on the roster. Early 2007 newhires will be near the bottom of the seniority list.

 

I forgot to take into account for those flowing up. Everyone left behind will move up by 45 this year plus 108 in 2011. So if you are currently 750 on the list, you will be roughly 600 on the list. And if you are 800 on the list right now, you will be at the bottom of the list at the end of 2011 (#650).

If DAL continues to hire in 2011, Mesaba MEC needs to renegotiate to increase the number of flowthru per month from 9 to something higher like 20 because Mesaba can handle 20 per month through the end of 2011 without additional expense as XJ has 1175 on the pilot roster.

 

You're assuming that we actually send 9 per month. I'm not that optimistic.

#1. The flow language is based on sending pilots per month, not per class. So, if DL starts two classes in one month, and none the next, XJ only sends 9 pilots between those two classes, not 18. Nobody knows what the class schedules will look like yet.

#2. It all depends on how many pilots are in each class. Compass gets first crack at it with their flow agreement. If DL has smaller classes, they could be filled with mostly Compass guys, and very few XJ (or none). Hopefully that won't happen though, given the number of pilots DL is expected to hire in late 2010 and 2011.

The flow will help, but being in the high 700s, I'm not counting on it saving me. For people around my seniority, we need the majors to start hiring and a respectable amount of people to leave XJ for other airlines besides DL. I've talked to quite a few who don't want to go to Delta anyway, or can't due to not qualifying for the flow (4 yr. degree).