I was curious what the Regional Pilot Demand looked like and so I ran some numbers. Calculating the amount of attrition each airline should see from the Mainline Industry(based on the sites Mainline model) plus the fleet shrinkage/growth the executives announce in their Annual Reports/Press Release's, we can calculate the demand for pilots over the next 8 years or so. We can even figure out based upon that number what someones seniority progression would look like up through about 50%, after that its hard to tell if the attrition will be above you in Seniority or Below.

I went ahead and took the data from the last annual reports for 2011, the companies projections for aircraft retirement and , and took the liberty to make a couple of assumptions to fill in the gaps. The model is tied to all of the regional airlines as the % of attrition to the majors due to their hiring needs is greatly affected by the overall size of the regional model(their all tied together). Subsequently the greater the regional market share an Airline has the greater slice of the attrition and vice verse.*

The Regional Attrition model is directly tied to the Mainline attrition model. Unlike the Major's where the primary source of attrition is the Retirements, the Regionals primary source of attrition is the Majors. Anyway this took a bit a coding, but its very easily updateable, so if we discover tomorrow an Airline is buying 15 700's from delta next year, I can easily put that in. So let me know if you discover any new Intel.

It does not take into account the 6-8% we will most likely see in pilot demand due to the new rest rules. Which might explain why some airlines seem a bit overstaffed and are still hiring. I think the percent seniority junior charts are very helpful for new-hires and FO's curious what the projected upgrade time is. Some of the Airlines are really in limbo right now like, Eagle and some of the Privately owned Airlines, for now until better information presents itself I just assume stagnant growth. Enjoy!


http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/american-eagle/*
Compass | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/gojet/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/horizon/*
Mesa | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/piedmont/*
Pinnacle | Audries Aircraft Analysis*
TransStates | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/skywest/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/expressjet/*
Republic | Audries Aircraft Analysis
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/silver/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/air-wisconsin/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/great-lakes/*
http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/psa/*


Regional Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis

 

Wow awesome work

 

Wow! Nice work, thank you

 

This should be stickied and updated regularly if you can!

 

I would like to know with minimums at 1500 hours how are regionals doing recruiting new hires? Are they basically trying to hire all that come through the door or is it still very competitive?

 

You missed the flow at Compass. Assuming that Delta hires soon, and sticks by their end of the deal, the attrition should be about 75% of the list there in the next three years. That is just flows, and does not count attention to other airlines.

 

Compass crews stand at "attention" for other airlines??

 

Skywest is advertising minimums of 1000/100.

 

A nice chart, though a few things I thought I would throw out below. For those looking to move up, hopefully the chance comes sooner for more and not nearly the turblent skies aviation has navigated as of late.

Mesa no longer has CRJ 200 for USX or any DH8, those numbers might be flawed.

Airwis current CPA ends in 2015, no bright prospects there for renewal, plus a 200 only fleet that won't make it into the next decade.

Peidmont as stated is wholly owned, but no growth in fleet number over the last several years and no indication of any new planes coming onboard. Real question mark about the future there, IMO.

 

You forgot to mention which ones will be in bankruptcy. Most of the "it" regionals of 10-15 years ago don't even exist anymore. I remember when ACA, Comair and ASA were the places to get hired as a stepping stone and make good money doing it.