Over on airliners net they are convinced that they will fix the problem by having single pilot airliners within the next 5-7 years.

Don't bother telling them they are wrong. They are RIGHT, dangit.

 

 

Airliners.net eh?

 

You might see some of that, but it won't be a crisis. People forget the industry experienced a prologed hiring boom for several consecutive years, at both the mainline and regional levels, with most regional mins at a hard "12 and 2" non negotiable and competitive mins significantly higher than that for most of the boom.

If we face a similar or greater prolonged hiring situation, there will be a need for civilian instructors no matter what. And those instructors will be busy, training other students and instructors. Ab initio does nothing to change or mitigate that. Even if 1500 hours is bargained down to 700 or 800, that only buys them a few months relief from the pipeline, and canabalizes instructors off the top even faster, significantly lowering the average dual given for each instructor taken, who then has to be replaced.

There are more than enough higher time pilots out of work (or just out of flying work) that can come back (yes, some won't, but there is a large enough quantity of them to soften the blow for the transition) and by the time that is absorbed there will be enough demand that just about any CFI anywhere can get 100 hours or so a month if they want it.

And if they are still short on the recruitment end, they will have to give signing bonuses, higher first year pay, hotels through all training and maybe even *gasp* better contracts all around. But a true crisis this is not.

 

gloopy. gets. it.


You da man!

 

Its funny, mainline pilots say regional guys are inexperienced but when their child hits 1500hrs they get them onboard with mainline. But yet the CRJ CA of 4 yrs is not that qualified to fly people around. But the guys child at 1500 is capable of flying a 767

 

I think that's life in general people, as Forest Gump said "S^&T Happens"... Doesn't matter if it's at mother Delta, in the Air Force, or any other civilian work environment, it isn't always what you know, it is who you know, so maybe instead of working nonstop to get all those hours maybe start networking, technique only I guess? Who knows but that is life.

Mongo

 

...and over on A.net, it's solely the fault of the pilots and their GREEDY contracts for driving each company into Bankruptcy. Why can't you just face the fact that you have the best job in the world and just work for free??? I'm Joe Traveler, and I am entitled to cross country flights for $99 each way, damn it!!!

 

That is a good point. A good hiring boom at mainline would probably be enough of a Siren's song to lure people into the regionals and replenish their ranks once again...

A lot of people have gotten wise to the industry, and rightfully so. Why would someone want to go take out a mortgage to work at the regionals? What ab initio would do is ensure a steady supply at the regional level. Want to fly for Delta someday? Let Delta pay for your training, and you just have to sign a contract stating that you'll work at a DCI Carrier for the next 12 years. Or some derivation thereof.

Don't forget the number of pilots working at all the 2nd tier operators (Spirit, Virgin, Kalitta, Polar, etc...) that already have their ppwk in at DAL, SWA, FedEx, et al.

 

That might happen. But looking back to the last big hiring boom we didn't really see any of that. The closest thing was the CMR/DCI academy. But in any case, current and future pilots were lining up in droves, by cash or credit, for richer or for poorer, to slave away at dirt bag regionals for 16$/hr, PFT, not even being an employee and starting the first year pay clock until after all training, no work rules and crappy equipment, in many cases without APU's or even lavs.

But they did it to get flight time, to one day get to the "Paris, First Class, International" dream. Legacy contracts aren't as good as they were back then of course, but they are getting better than the 9-11 BK floor and coupled with advancement from significant attrition it will once again become a fairly powerful recruiting force for future pilots. And the regional level may be smaller but its still pretty big, and these days the worst jobs in the industry might still suck, but they'll be in an all glass jet with good AC, a lav or two, no PFT, employee from day 1 and even in some cases signing bonuses and paid hotels, etc.

Sulley was right on when he said there won't be a shortage of pilots. Only a shortage of pilots willing to accept employment at or below a certain point. A point we're already well above the last hiring boom in many ways. Worst case they will have to sweeten the pot a little bit for regional new hires. But honestly, probably not that much. Make first year pay in the 30's and up from there with fairly "quick" upgrades (from 2-5 years in many cases...or just hire senior FO's directly to the majors more often) and people will be lining up around the block. No ab initio required.

Good point. Of course they too will need to be replaced. But their growth is (hopefully) petering out and soon, hopefully, they will begin to shrink as well. Partly to participate in further "capacity dicipline" as necessary, and partly because they aren't really that "LC" anymore. More like LRC (low revenue carriers).