Actually, the problems just begin. Lets not go there!

 

Win the lottery, then use the money to buy a shoddy, old C152 and fly the hell out of it. Then go for the ATP. Problem solved !!!!!1!!1!

 

Yes. This. Traditionally, there are a couple routes to be an airline pilot. One is your parents are rich and/or have their own plane. You get anything you want/need paid for and don't have to worry about the finances much. It doesn't mean this person is any less of a self-starter or less of a pilot. I've known ones in this genre that were exceptionally motivated and bright. Then there's the ones that go into the military to get a "jump" on things, like college and flight training. Then, there are the poor pilots that want to fly and that will struggle to earn their ratings more in terms of finances and it will simply take longer. That's not a cut on them, that's simply life. The whole point is that they have a CHANCE to make it, but it's obviously not and will never be the SAME chance that others have. You may have to work harder, longer, building up the experience will take more time, etc. This isn't "fair" and it never will be or should be. Otherwise, it'd be "taking from the rich and giving to the poor" for much more than just basic sustenance and necessities.

Is it really possible that everyone can be an airline pilot? No. It's not supposed to be easy. If it's easy, how do you convince the carriers that you are worth more than 20K/yr?

 

The fractionals will end up being a pipeline into the majors, if the majors will hire with little to no turbine PIC time.

Netjets has 2500 active pilots, 495 on furlough. Better than 60% of the active pilots are captains. Just a guess, but many of them, think 50%, are in the age 40 range and high on the seniority list. With no mandatory retirement age attrition is less than 2%. The company is not growing and shows no sign of growth. Within the next 10 years the only upgrades that will occur will be from the top 5% of the FOs. Many of them are 40+. No way these guys stick around with no upgrade in sight, maxed out on the payscale. Add in contract negotiations opening up and NJA is getting ripe for an exodus. The only thing needed is a place for mid-list FOs to go.

There's already been a trickle of guys leaving. It will pick up. Open positions at NJA will be filled by further shrinkage and a few recalls. Most won't stick around long, the length of time predicated on how far out those recalls happen. We're still accruing longevity while out, so I'd go back to year 8-10 pay for a year or so to let NJA pay for another type rating and get current again. I'm not the only one.

Netjets hiring will be a fun time as well. It will be a hard sell into a company with no upgrade. Due to owner obligations the company is required to be selective in its hiring approach and will be drawing many from the same applicant pool as Delta / United / etc. The hiring dept will have to adapt to a new reality if and when that time comes, but requiring an ATP is not something that's going to change there.

 

I met a pilot who was furloughed from 3 different airlines. His advice was to, "suck Buffalo for a nickle a herd. you'll make more money and get your self respect back!"

 

I agree, you don't even have to win the lotto. If you are an A&P you can get an old beat up 152 for dirt cheap and fix it up - why didn't you just do this from the beginning? You would have saved yourself a small fortune. And you wouldn't have a XC problem. I know parts are expensive but as an A&P all your labor is free and there are multiple junk yards where you can get parts at a fraction of the price of Aircraft Spruce. JD, how did you do all your initial training?

 

I think you meant to reply to JetDoc seeing that he has an A&P license, not I?

 

This goes back to when 135 included several current 121 operators. Specifically, INTRAstate ops of 29 or fewer pax and INTERstate ops of 19 or fewer. My guess is it was a concession the feds made when they forced these 135 companies to comply with 121 regs. After all, safety is one of the FAA's top priorities.

 

Yeah, I'm sure he was as my last post was deleted and I now have a "point" on my record....LOL...

 

A correction, Great Lakes is in fact part 121 so just remove there 300 pilots from the list. They may be in big trouble, because it will be difficult to pay what may be the going rate for a Part 121 FO in the future with only 19 seats, unless there is a glut of pilots.

Also it should be noted it is very possible the fractional carriers will hold to there current requirements and not hire brand new pilots. Most fractional operators are not currently hiring, further challenging any shift in the current hiring situation.

If this scenario happens and the FAA holds to their new rule, there may be significant pressure on the supply of pilots as the slack starts to come out of the system in 2014 and 2015.