I'll say this much. Things might not be all roses right now but if you look at the numbers of pilots who have flowed and the projections which IMO will not stop we can see a lot of attrition here in the next 2 years. I had recurrent the other month and he sat down and spent about an hour plus answering any questions we had. He told us how AAG has determined the flow through and upgrade numbers and he himself said some of the data has assumptions such as X number of FO's/ month leaving for other airlines etc. I'm not necessarily defending the said times, just that this isn't something he just made up on the fly.
AAG is hanging their hat, as of now, on flow and it seems to me they are well aware what would happen to their WO if that ceases. With the amount of retirees AA is facing I have no doubts things will at least improve significantly in 2016. Don't forget if you look at the seniority lists we have huge gaps in DOH from 2001-2004, not a lot in 2005, 2009-20011. So while it seems like a joke with the 2.5 and 6, it COULD happen if the "assumptions" in AAG's calculations are correct. I personally don't think it will be as quick as they say but probably not too far off, especially with the flow.
A new hire here will have at least one benefit and that is at least a flow into AA and can still keep their apps up to date and get hired off the street with the other 2 majors eventually. As for other regional guys who want to go to AA they on the other hand are in a bad spot since the majority of new hires into AA will be primarily military and obviously a few select others.
For those of you who are not here, I would be cautious reading too much into everything negative here. Ya there's a lot that needs fixing, but I can't say this is a terrible place to work. I've personally enjoyed my time here and just as in life it's all about what you make of things.

 

Nice pitch. Really.

I agree one should be cautious about reading too much into anything negative, but I think one should apply that attitude to supposedly positive things too. Positive is good, provided it is indeed honest, accurate, doable and with no personal or ulterior motive. The "update" which was released had no new information from what I saw, simply reiterating old info and the old info of a 2.5 year upgrade claim once again stated requires a massive upgrade schedule in 2017 and the first half of 2018 to be realistic. It's difficult to see how Envoy can do that and I don't even see them promising to, at least specifically. The question of why it was put out now, especially with nothing really new to add understandably has some suspicious as to why considering the recent flying hours/scheduling communique and if there is suspicion as to that, then once could reasonably question its motive.

Perhaps an Envoy pilot could get this source to first confirm the 2017-2018 upgrade schedule plan to include all F/O's on property and then provide more detail as to how. Remember, if they plan to upgrade all remaining F/O's beyond the 200-and-change next year by mid 2018, they'll need as many new-hires during that period and that would be double what is claimed to be brought aboard next year.

The most important thing prospective entry-level pilots need from ANY airline source is accuracy and honesty. Right now, across this segment of the industry, that appears difficult to find as due to the deepening regional airline pilot crisis, it seems that any claim goes, no matter how questionable or unlikely.

 

Why? Because he is happy with his employer? Not everyone lives such a miserable existence as yourself. I suppose that is why you keep coming back to badmouth a company you don't work for anymore. Oh, right, public service.

Do you think that Ric Wilson thinks about you as much as you think about him? I doubt it. But maybe that is the real reason why you are always hanging out on threads about a company you don't work for anymore. To feel significant.

 

No, because it really was a nice pitch. I actually liked it. He gave his .02 worth and that was fine, at least by me. I simply expanded that all pilots should consider all statements and claims or perhaps even NONE of them and go strictly to the best source - Envoy pilots themselves. In my experience in doing just that, the vibe I get is more negative then positive. The vibe I get at least is that pilots are untrustworthy and suspicious of their management and that is expressed both personally and on various pilot forums. I suppose it irks you that anyone else would give any view that isn't in accordance with your views, but some like me believe that others should consider all points of view, instead of one-sided myopic ones by those with questionable motives, like yourself.

What you see as "badmouthing" is simply another opinion of what is being said and regarding the latest blast, it was that A. nothing is new, B. the same claims like the 2.5 year upgrade that aren't new are STILL based on unrealistic numbers and C. the timing seems questionable because of the A. repetition of previous information and B. the penchant for this source to make claims that seem unrealistic and that as a result of that, some Envoy pilots don't believe what he says and/or believe their was another motive to repeat the already heard that hasn't changed. I certainly don't. It seems to greatly upset you little pot, that anyone would dare question anything you or this source says.


God, I hope he doesn't. Honestly though, I couldn't care less as that isn't a question for me. No, the bigger question for me is, why do YOU feel such a obsessive compulsion to come on these threads almost daily and for large parts of days to do the opposite, i.e., to sell the dubious claims of others or in absence of that, make dubious claims yourself in regards to Envoy's future ? Another question for me is why you feel an even bigger sleepless obsession to aggressively attack everything I say and even others on multiple threads regarding any differing views of Envoy's future based on questionable claims that have once again been repeated ?

One would almost think YOU to be Ric Wilson. Who knows, considering all possibilities, maybe he DOES think about me MORE then I think about him ?

Does he ?

 

Personal opinion rant: I don't think Ric reiterated the 2.5/6 to distract from the news schedules aren't improving. They couldn't care less about current employee morale, as evidenced by the reserve debacle that is ongoing and totally preventable. I'm sure this email was intended to boost recruiting, as 350 new hires is a lofty target in this environment.

I'm glad they keep pushing 2.5/6, personally. After hearing years and years of bad news about shrinking and losing flying, this type of optimism, even from management, is better than the alternative of losing more airplanes. It was about this time last year that more 145 transfers were announced. Now, the 175 is arriving, the CRJ's will hang around, and the 145's are supposedly coming back. If you step back and realizes who is doing the talking, and understand that those projections should be taken with a grain of salt, there's no harm in looking at the bright side.

With regards to the projections, I think the 2.5 claim is off the mark. The six year flow seems very reasonable at this point. Six years is an eternity, and a lot could change, good or bad, in that time frame. The next 2.5 years could be really good here, but good enough to move that many pilots up the list? I doubt it. I think a 4 year upgrade is a solid conservative estimate.

Either way, for me personally, I'm going to keep the flow in my back pocket and apply off the street and see where I end up. There's going to be an unprecedented amount of retirements/hiring over the next decade. I'd say no matter where you are sitting, it's going to be a good ride.


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Does anyone know what the current class sizes and dates are?

 

The problem is that AAG is utterly untrustworthy; they have proven that time and time again. I used to work there, I know what I'm talking about and I can't imagine much has changed in the time since I have left.

I wish all who are there the very best, but I would take what they say with a grain of salt.

 

AAG is only about 2 years old. This is not AMR. They have actually been holding up their end of the bargain, at least with wholly owns, up to this point.

Your post is irrelevant due to the fact that you are essentially talking about 2 different companies.

 

Classes run twice a month (end of Dec is an exception) We had 13 start a few days ago. We have 25 scheduled for the 1st January class with another ~22 that are at various stages in the process. It's likely that the 2nd January class will be of similar size.

 

No, I'm not Ric. My name is Gavin MacKenzie. I am socially awkward and having trouble making friends in real life. My entire life revolves around making stupid political commentary on FB that no one cares about and posting aviation industry forums. I have trouble coming to terms with my personal and professional insignificance so I constantly attempt to create conflict to feed my delusion of self importance.