Yes, technically it's possible (at least the flow), but everything has to run smoothly at both Envoy and AA, yet AAG wont even commit to Envoy past a few months, so 2.5 or 6 year claims of confidence seems a more then a stretch. If they intended to commit long-term to Envoy, they would reopen MIA, not ask Envoy to be temporary pinch-hitters until either RAH can handle it or Envoy demonstrates it can't either and plan C is devised.

The AAG regional network is simply in a fluid state of "whack-a-mole" right now and no one can infer anything about what will happen within in by next year or later.

 

eaglefly, I'm not sure if you are aware of this but over time all 3 wholly owned AA regionals (Envoy, PSA, PDT) will together account for 50% of new hires at American. This isn't a secret. That is AA's long term plan.

The 824 and Protected Pilot group will continue to flow at a higher rate when compared to PSA and PDT. So together the 3 wholly owned Regionals make up well over half of each AA's new hire classes currently. Envoy alone is 50% minimum. After the Protected Pilot group Envoy will be a similar size to the other two, and at that point all three combined will make up 50% of new hires at AA. The other 50% will be off the street hires...most likely military pilots.

This isn't exactly secretive information. You keep making predictions regarding the long term health of the flow without realizing the long term plan has already been laid out. Just relax.

 

You guys are scaring envoy1. He has been quiet lately. Right Cujo?

Good Luck!

 

Quite calm here.....almost serene.

Thanks for the info, but I'm aware of the flow provisions. I'm not sure if YOU are aware of this, but you seem to be making predictions yourself as in stating what will occur in the future. We both are making predictions and it's my prediction that once the 824 are done and Envoy is right-sized (contracts to a smaller carrier) to approximate the growing two other WO's, the flow must and will be balanced out so that no one carrier (of three essentially equal sized carriers) will have a lopsided flow attrition mechanism. I think you are assuming the CURRENT situation as being the long-term plan, but if the three carriers will eventually be equal, it makes sense all factors are equal to ensure balance. The current situation IMO, is driven by desire to move the 824 ASAP and remove that issue from the equation.

When those changes occur, relax. You'll eventually get to AA should you be determined to be an loser like me who couldn't get hired elsewhere, but the question is when and the variables in play and the future make up of the WO's will alter your present assumption about what is happening today. I understand the desire to believe Envoy is superior to others, but it's just business and there are no kings of the hill here, only temporary occupiers of the crest.

Good Luck !

 

It's going to be more than 50%, several Envoy pilots continue to be hired from the street.

 

I'm not even trying to get to a legacy. I've put all the numbers side by side and my decision is to stay here for the long haul. Being at a legacy might be great for some but for me it's all about pay and QOL.

Leaving that steaming pile at Envoy behind was a great move. For me. In the past I've commented on here with a neutral stance and when I post facts about current upgrade times, current flow and the untrustworthiness of management, I get bludgeoned as some Envoy basher.

When you guys are unable to listen to another opinion that has facts attached to it that don't line up with what you want to happen, the response is to go on full attack mode.

For you guys that are so high on AAG management, here is a fact.

Eagle/Envoy had already signed a bankruptcy agreement with AMR and things were basically set when US took over. AAG came in and wanted more skin off your back and said take it or we will give your airplanes away. After an initial no vote followed months later by a yes vote, AAG took your airplanes away and put Envoy in essence circling the drain. This shows these guys are just as bad, if not worse than AMR. They are playing ball with you now because it lines up with what they need. If something changes the landscape, don't expect these guys to do the honorable thing and stick to your agreement.

Depending on where you fall on the seniority list, I wouldn't place all my bets on the flow. If you are a 2006, early 2007 protected pilot, you may make it to AA although I don't see it in the time frame of the interactive seniority list. After that I think all bets are off depending on the staffing situation at Envoy. This house of cards Ric W is building needs a foundation of hundreds of new hires per year when the shrinking is done. If you think they are out there in these numbers then by all means, keep banking on the flow.

If I hadn't been able to get out when I did and were still at Envoy, I would be beating the bushes for ANY job better than that regional cesspool. I would place the same faith that I would be flowing as that I'll be drawing a social security check at 65.

 

QFE.

filler

 

Did you ever stop and think for a single moment why you get singled out? You really are being singled out on many occasions, that's for real... More so than anybody I've seen here. Seriously, did you? I can say it's not because of your intelligent posts or witty banter, your succinctness or your ability to make a convincing argument. There's a real reason behind it. If you're blind to it, you've got some psychological issues. If you're not, and continue to act the way you do because you enjoy being a jack wagon...well, that answers a lot of questions.

When everyone around you stinks like crap all the time, it's probably not them and it's time to check the bottom of your own shoe.

 

I'm curious as to why you arbitrarily pick the 824 as the point in time when AAG reneges on their flow agreement with envoy, specifically the Protected Pilot and the contractual flow after that? The only reason I can see you saying that is that you see the 824 agreement working as advertised, so have to pick on the agreements that are next in line in order to look like you have some legitimacy.

What you also fail to mention is that the flow agreements with PDT and envoy are essentially the same once you hit a certain threshold. That threshold being anybody hired here post DOS. Until then, envoy's flow is far and away better (in terms of amount being sent to AA vs. total size of the pilot group) then any other WO. Again, yes for those hired post DOS, the envoy and PDT flow provisions are relatively balanced out. Hence why the flow projection is the same general time period at both PDT and envoy. But you seem to be under the constant belief that AAG is going to renege on the provisions of the flow post-824, in order to "balance it out" with the other two WO's, yet provide no legitimate evidence or argument to back that prediction up.


Edit; Unless you've been out of the loop, envoy is "right sized" or at least very close to it. This does not include any of the anticipated (not yet announced) return of the TSA birds which would correlate to growth. So by your prediction, shouldn't the other two WO's be getting a nice little christmas gift from Dougie in the form of a better flow? Or do they have to wait for the end of the 824 to get a better flow?

 

Because the 824 are the highest earners and also it was a judge's arbitration. To assume Envoy wouldn't hold back a <12 guy is naive. His cost would be in check industry wide for regional flying.
Do you really think envoy will never need it's captains to run the operation. Even despite the shrinking, the slack will catch up and Envoy will need every pilot they have and will make every attempt to bottle neck the flow.
If you claim that the company is right sized then Envoy will have to hire 1:1 for flow plus the flying it's bringing back, which won't be easy in this environment. PSA pulled it off last year due to laterals that I doubt Envoy will be able to attract.