emb145

The new announcement regarding Republic flying 53 175's for AA along with Republic announcing they are "teaming up" with ALLATP's to give "conditional offers" to students who don't yet have an instrument rating may hopefully shed some light on the "pilot shortage." Or, you may call it "pilots not willing to work for peanuts anymore."

I'm in contact with a couple of people at flight schools and a DPE. All three say that in the past 2 to 4 years, the numbers of American students pursuing a Commercial and planning an airline or Part 91 career are WAY down. Like 75% down or more from 2008. Reasons? Too expensive now plus hard to get loans for that type of training. I guess banks realize that if you loan a guy 100k for training and his prospects are to make between 25k and 40k for 6 to 8 years, the chances of getting repaid without a default aren't great. Couple that with everyone now needing an ATP (read 1500 hours) to even work at a 121 carrier along with the new flight time duty time regs.

All that said, does anyone inside Republic know how their hiring is working out? This should tell us if the "pilot shortage" is here or not. If Republic can get 500 without a problem, then I guess it's status quo for the next 5 years. If they CAN'T get 500, then perhaps the "shortage" is here. If so, what does Republic plan to do?

Let's see, they've already cancelled their training contract for the EMB and Q400 AND are offering a 5k hiring bonus for that equipment. That says something. They've "teamed up" with ALLATP's for pilot supply and are going to make "conditional offers" to someone who may not even have even a private pilot certificate.

I say next up will be dropping the training contract on the 175's and bringing the 5k hiring bonus there as well. Then......maybe they'll have to think about actually paying their pilots something decent to compete with the few remaining applicants out there.

Let's hope that can't find the guys they need. It will be good for all of us.

So.......anyone inside Republic have any info????

HercDriver130

Not defending them....but they have 5 or 6 months to get this program rolling...PLUS its what like 2 or 3 airplanes each month stretched into 2015. Not like they need them all at one time.

atdhockey

training contracts are worthless anyways

feltf4

The best rumor I heard was $20,000 bonus if you make it through training...

mattanah

But, how could they afford that? They can't afford better work rules and cost of living pay increases!

Ultralight

This should tell us if the "pilot shortage" is here or not.

I think you need to add the word "regional" in front of pilot shortage. Someone rightly pointed out that there are still Comair guys out there looking for work and Pinnacle will soon have a steady feed. No doubt these guys have their stuff in at the majors, but when the phone doesn't ring, any port in a storm!

Once all the Comair and pinnacle guys have been mopped up though, I agree that things will get very interesting at the regional level. Not only will companies like republic struggle to hire enough for their new flying, once the majors open their doors they are going to have a mass exedous to replace.

feltf4

Just part of the rumor mill. Maybe the bonus implies that you will make $20,000 your first year after the completion on training. Here is your bonus... we pay you to fly planes...

yimke

3 airplanes per month, with about 6-8 pilots per plane. So 18-24 pilots per month. Not bad. However if retirements and attrition pick up then it is stretching your training department. Which consists of mostly senior pilots, that may be looking to bail to the majors. So Republic will need to hire replacement instructors, and expand their current department to staff their new hires.

Republic will be fine, until the number of CFI's stuck behind "The Curve" of 1500 hours depletes. For every CFI that is stuck behind the growing curve to get to 1500 hours, that is another commercial student that is slowly building hours, or waiting for a call on a gig. There is no rough deadline by the FAA with the HR5900 reduction, and majors picking up on retirements. I will estimate that around September next year is going to be rough on Republic, unless they approve a new contract. Which is unlikely, the way management is acting.

I don't see why people give their life to work for terrible management and work rules. When every airline is on the same hiring hour requirements, we shall see who will actually still stand.

RAH Contract NOW! | Teamsters Local 357

AirbornPegasus

I think the number is much higher than 500, but it is probably spread out over 18 to 24 months. Their attrition is picking up with guys going to Spirit, Airways, Emirates, etc. Any Tier III FO that can leave is leaving, as well as most of the bottom 400 or so Captains. The FO's over there have had a belly full of BB, their union, and the top 300 - 500 lifer Captains. I don't think there is a single FO on their Negotiation Committee and they are fed up with the entire lot. With or without PIC time, if they can get out they will.

When the real hiring at the majors, Fedex, UPS, etc. picks up in summer or early fall that hew hire number will grow to 750 for this year and probably an equal number or greater next year. Don't forget they are not yet completely staffed for the Q's. Also, remember they need new hire FO's in place to begin the upgrade process for the Tier III guys.

In 2007 they hired nearly a 1,000. They can do it from a process standpoint. From a recruitment standpoint, that is a whole different consideration.

If they do not get this contract behind them, there is going to be a lot of really nasty smelling stuff coming the fan when planes are sitting waiting on pilots. Is there a pilot shortage? Not yet, because of the Pinnacle and Comair guys. But there will be at RAH within a year and potentially by fall.

My advice to anyone even thinking about going to RAH is get in NOW! Ask any of the guys who got hired from Sept 07 to March 08 over there how getting hired on the back end of a hiring wave at RAH works out.

SongMan

Any reason to choose Republic over Eagle for the new hire?