Ethiopian 737 MAX 8 crash
03-21-2019, 12:32 PM
#361
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,430
Originally Posted by dera
I fly in the US, yes. But I also have quite a bit of experience on how airlines operate in Western Europe.
A more holistic tally? You’re kidding, right?
That’s one year of statistics, and it bundles half of Russia and all of the old Soviet bloc countries into Europe.
Also, if you would add some Part 91 flying in the mix, stats would look different. A lot of Part 91 or 91k is considered CAT under EASA.
Now, if you look at page 26 you’ll see in 2013 per million sectors, US has over twice the hull loss rate compared to Europe. If we carve out Western Europe, things would look even more different.
One single event will skew these results because they are so rare.
The point I’m trying to make is, that both training philosophies can produce results that are equally safe. The big issue in the US right now is, that people will find bottom feeders who will hire and train anyone, no matter if they really belong in the cockpit or not, as long as they have enough pencil whipped hours in their logbook.
A more holistic tally? You’re kidding, right?
That’s one year of statistics, and it bundles half of Russia and all of the old Soviet bloc countries into Europe.
Also, if you would add some Part 91 flying in the mix, stats would look different. A lot of Part 91 or 91k is considered CAT under EASA.
Now, if you look at page 26 you’ll see in 2013 per million sectors, US has over twice the hull loss rate compared to Europe. If we carve out Western Europe, things would look even more different.
One single event will skew these results because they are so rare.
The point I’m trying to make is, that both training philosophies can produce results that are equally safe. The big issue in the US right now is, that people will find bottom feeders who will hire and train anyone, no matter if they really belong in the cockpit or not, as long as they have enough pencil whipped hours in their logbook.
03-21-2019, 12:35 PM
#362
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,430
Originally Posted by flydrive
I can't fathom how any experienced, competent pilot would see any undesired trim movement, especially with the A/P off, and not immediately think "runaway trim," continuous or not.
Apparently, a jumpseater on Lion Air was able to figure it out, but the crew the next day was completely clueless.
Apparently, a jumpseater on Lion Air was able to figure it out, but the crew the next day was completely clueless.
03-21-2019, 12:57 PM
#363
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,498
Originally Posted by rickair7777
It covers more than just one year, you have to read which data is which. But I've been following this stuff for decades and it hasn't changed much. Europe lags behind the US on airline safety, period. Unless you just total up the crashes with no regard for the number departures/flight hours
03-21-2019, 01:05 PM
#364
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 579
Originally Posted by captjns
Much lower turnover, which is primarily due to attrition rather than matriculating from one airline to another.
I guess you’re a team player wanting to save. Your airline money... Go ahead... move from your airline, mid seniority range, to another at the bottom of the heap. Guess I’m not savvy to your U.S. airline pilot way of thinking.
I guess you’re a team player wanting to save. Your airline money... Go ahead... move from your airline, mid seniority range, to another at the bottom of the heap. Guess I’m not savvy to your U.S. airline pilot way of thinking.
Originally Posted by dera
The big difference is that the scales for someone hired today don’t reach nearly the salaries that they do at US legacies.
03-21-2019, 01:31 PM
#365
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,178
In the US, no C172 with five checkride busts is getting an airline seat, so that’s a silly argument.
I agree either the US training program or the outside ab initio system can produce safe air carrier pilots. But, someone who has spent loads of classroom time, some instructor-based sim and aircraft time to reach a “200 hour” MPL status has zero experience in the real world rough and tumble operational world. Very little! It’s all “paint by numbers” follow the script ability. Throw a spatial disorienting situation, multiple failures or an ATC curveball like a “slam dunk visual” and the brain circuit breakers start tripping. I’ve seen in the AF flying heavies, recent graduates have loads of answers, some great basic skills, but tell them 20 miles from the field to land visually and it gets interesting to watch. Safety has become very much a product of system reliability, operating within very tight controls.
GF
I agree either the US training program or the outside ab initio system can produce safe air carrier pilots. But, someone who has spent loads of classroom time, some instructor-based sim and aircraft time to reach a “200 hour” MPL status has zero experience in the real world rough and tumble operational world. Very little! It’s all “paint by numbers” follow the script ability. Throw a spatial disorienting situation, multiple failures or an ATC curveball like a “slam dunk visual” and the brain circuit breakers start tripping. I’ve seen in the AF flying heavies, recent graduates have loads of answers, some great basic skills, but tell them 20 miles from the field to land visually and it gets interesting to watch. Safety has become very much a product of system reliability, operating within very tight controls.
GF
03-21-2019, 01:31 PM
#366
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,329
Originally Posted by rickair7777
I've flown a couple types where the trim could move automatically when hand-flying, typically to make hand-flying easier. Trim motion in and of itself was not abnormal (unless it doesn't stop).
03-21-2019, 02:03 PM
#367
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 166
Originally Posted by rickair7777
I've flown a couple types where the trim could move automatically when hand-flying, typically to make hand-flying easier. Trim motion in and of itself was not abnormal (unless it doesn't stop).
Even if the trim motion was in the wrong direction?
03-21-2019, 02:52 PM
#368
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,498
Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
In the US, no C172 with five checkride busts is getting an airline seat, so that’s a silly argument.
I don’t think you understand how regional recruiting works today.
03-21-2019, 03:45 PM
#369
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,178
Originally Posted by dera
A good friend of mine has more than 5, and is working at one of the top tier regionals.
I don’t think you understand how regional recruiting works today.
I don’t think you understand how regional recruiting works today.
I know from being on the OEM side, the safety offices at all the manufacturers were concerned about pilot training and experience levels 8-10 years ago. We were watching the generational turnover and dearth of new starts wondering how it play out. Incidents showed the trend line years ago especially at regionals.
GF
03-21-2019, 03:56 PM
#370
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,498
Originally Posted by galaxy flyer
Well, I didn’t know it was that bad, but getting recruitment flyers at age 66 should tell ya something. Maybe you should have encouraged him to try another field of work. It’s gonna be interesting.
GF
GF
Meanwhile getting hired with multiple felonies, prison time etc is not an issue today. And the regionals will push you through, if you fail at first, another one will give you a second chance. And just like Frank Abagnale passed the bar, “try it often enough and you will pass”, they too will hit the line.
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