Six years? First time I've heard that. I think 8 yrs will be the earliest with w/b 2-3 yrs after the first upgrades.



Legacy carriers are closing in on SW's financial performance or outperforming them. The battlefield has changed.



2nd qtr margins -



DL 8.7

US 8.4

AK 8.4

SW 5.9

AA 5.5

UA 5.2

JB 2.7



I forget the exact 3rd qtr results but I think DL was 9.8, and the rest were in basically the same order.



As far as furlough risk? Hard to say. History works against the Legacy carriers. But looking back in history SW was a different airline as were the Legacy carriers.



In the next 10 yrs SW retires 27% of their pilot corps(1750/6350). AA is at 48%(3700/7700). US retires about the same percentage. That's mandatory retirements. If the typical guy leaves a year early AA will retire 55% by end of 2023. It only takes 42%, or under 10 yrs, to get to the junior CA percentage at AA (58%).



Right now junior w/b CA is 49-55% at AA(depending upon which union job data base number you use). With a static airline 45-51% retirements would generate the first newhire w/b CA. That's 10 yrs, or less, from today. The numbers are stunning. Hopefully it works out.



However, US has a lot less w/b's. AA is removing 8(?) w/b's from domestic flying. That will make w/b CA go more senior. But AA/US will need additional w/b's if the DL and UA w/b fleet percentage is the ideal. Got a crystal ball? I'd guess AA/US will require a significant increase of w/b a/c to offset US's w/b weakness. That increase should make junior w/b CA approx. 47-55% in 10 yrs.

We have the same problem, although I have never done the long haul flying, only near international, I have thousands of hours flying freight on the back side of the clock. It was extremely difficult for me to deal with. I spent close to three years of my life feeling like a zombie. I already had partial insomnia and when I added in backside of the clock flying it really took its toll on me. I went from a minor problem with getting adequate rest to a major league insomniac. My body simply does not have the ability to switch back and forth between backside wakeful periods and front side wakeful periods.

It is not the equipment or the destinations that are a problem for me personally, it's the mission. I would love to fly larger aircraft to more distant destinations but when that mission requires switching back and forth between wakeful periods during the middle of the night, I personally am not well suited for it. It's not a dislike of the equipment or the destination it is the backside of the clock that steers me well away.

I realize many individuals do not have my issues, but for me insomnia is simply not worth working that type of schedule ever again. One of the reasons SWA was high on my list was the fact that there was no backside of the clock flying. We have red eyes coming, and I am thankful that I think I'm senior enough to bid away if and when they arrive.

The destinations sound cool, and the long layovers sound nice and I'm sure there is some long haul flying that does not take place on the backside, but going back and forth between front side to backside is simply not a viable option for this individual. I think I could eventually adjust to living my entire life nocturnally but that is simply not a real option when you have a family. The back and forth regimen is the real root of my sleeping issues.

At SWA they only give you peanuts to eat.

At AA on intl. flight your dinner is what first-class is having that evening minus the wine.

I'm pretty sure I could get a better meal at Friday's than I can on a US Legacy airline, lol.

There is not an airline out there that will stop you from bringing your own.

I know, I was kidding. I don't know how you guys don't eat 24/7 though. I would be 400lbs if I flew intl with all the food it's definitely a nice perk if you have self control

Actually, quite the opposite is true. Since becoming more domestic, I have had more trouble keeping the weight under control. Internationally, your meal schedule is out of whack, (and yes it does take a little self control to not eat everything on the airplane), but domestically it is more defensive eating. I hate that aspect of domestic. Nothing says yummy like grabbing a greazy overpriced airport burger while running for your next airplane...

^ yeah! I hear ya. Nothing says gross like Five Guys at 11:30pm, lol

I've had much more time to work out on our 24hr. + International layovers and have lost weight since flying Int. But, you do have to say "No thanks, just a cup of ice please" to at least two or three inflight meals each leg, or you will end up looking like an International Flight Attendant. And with more days off at home, I get to spend a lot more time riding my road bike and going to my local gym too.

BUT as others have pointed out, you do have to come up with a way to get some sleep, both in the airplane and on the layovers, or you will be a mess. I won't drink coffee in the airplane until the last 3 hours, if that's my shift in the cockpit, otherwise I won't be able to sleep on my breaks.

Plus intl growth and expansion to compete with DL and UA...Asia, Australia, Africa