observe that historically, the busiest "business travel" month is October. Great 1M numbers, hopefully this week we kill it also.

Halloween week (next week, on Saturday) is typically slower for business travel, per this article: https://hotelnewsnow.com/Articles/81...s-on-Halloween

I agree with most of this analysis.

We were lower on a percentage basis by the thinnest of margins - if 14 more passengers had travelled yesterday we would have had positive Week-Over-Week % growth.

I do expect that we will see Week-Over-Week declines for the 2019 numbers in the next few weeks. We ran a little hotter than I expected in the first half of October for the 2019 values. As such, I expect significant Week-Over-Week declines for the 2019 numbers in the coming weeks to balance it out to what I forecasted the October 2019 run-rate to be. Remains to be seen if our growth this year can overcome typically slower travel weeks of the year.

I would say that I don't agree that October passengers numbers look like July passenger numbers. July is the busiest travel month of the year. October is middle of the pack (~6th). November (~9th) is slower than October. If I had to guess, travel is more back-loaded in the second half of November, but impossible to know for sure. December 1st, 2019 was the busiest travel day on record. This will correspond to November 29th, 2020 (2,870,764 passengers for the 2019 values).

Someone asked a few pages back if I have all the 2019 numbers - no I don't. I found a link that detailed the Top 10 travel days of 2019. Positions 2 through 10 already occurred this year. The number one spot is the Sunday after Thanksgiving. It also means we won't see another value above 2,730,515 (the 10th position) for the remainder of the year for the 2019 numbers.

I made a bunch of projections (growth rates, key milestones, confidence intervals) in early September and early October. I'll do a write-up at the end of the month to keep myself accountable.

The same people who predicted growth would stall or drop in mid-September are now predicting 3 quarters out from now or doing simplistic 5% growth/month projections. I would say take all of these projections (including mine) with a grain of salt. People will point back to their predictions if they ultimately are proven to be accurate but almost no-one will highlight their own shortcomings. It is impossible to know before hand which is which.

Cheers,
AirlineAnalyst

10-20/Tuesday: 662,484

https://twitter.com/TSA_Northeast/st...729615873?s=20

Raw number is lower. 2%-ish YOY increase from last week. First non-holiday Tuesday over 30% of 2019. Good news.

694,150

Basically flat on a YOY. Drop in actual pax numbers WOW.


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With interstate travel restrictions increasing, case numbers increasing it seems likely demand will fall.

Europe is our future (increasing cases, increasing testing, miniscule increase in deaths) and their travel demand is much weaker than forecast.

10-20: 31.2%

10-21: 30.9%

hope we are not back to that 30-35% quagmire

What interstate travel restrictions are increasing?


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Some states and countries are talking about increasing restrictions, many still have restrictions in place. Unless absolutely necessary, I don’t know why anyone would want to travel when you have to wear a mask the whole time, when your destination has quarantine requirements, capacity restrictions/forced closing of restaurants, meeting venues, entertainment venues, and tourist attractions. Would you like to fly to NY for the weekend to have a nice dinner and see a play? Sorry......you have to quarantine for 2 weeks, the play that you want to see has been postponed, and the popular restaurant that you and your spouse want to try has seating capacity restricted to 25%. When travel isn’t such a PITA, they’ll be back, until then, why would they want to buy a ticket?

This is just after 1 million on 10-18. What have you done for me lately....