In both cases then, Envoy shrinks and a shrinking Envoy isn't going to support the flow projections made by Wilson unless the plan is to shrink Envoy out of existence. With the present trickle of new-hires, Envoy can neither support an upgrade mill at 14.7/month for the next 18 months (a fairly slow mill), nor flow 30 pilots/month to AA.

Either Envoy hires upwards of 50 pilots/month to cover 30 flows to AA and outside attrition or Envoy withers on the vine into extinction. Envoy can't flow everyone over to AA as a shrinking airline and still function below a certain number of aircraft. That would mean Envoy eventually shrinks to 40, then 10 then down to a 5 aircraft airline, etc. Considering AA's Airbus delivery deferment announcement, your E-175 options just vaporized. It seems clear that AAG is making its moves without consideration as to your managements claims and there is a clear disconnect between the two. It's understandable your management is desperately trying to paint Envoy with pretty colors to give the impression of viability, but in reality, it appears AAG isn't spending any time at the Envoy gallery admiring the art. The moves AAG is presently making don't support the claims Envoy management is making. I'm sorry. I certainly hope something changes for the sake of those (well, MOST of those) presently there, but so far that has yet to happen.

Envoy can survive for another 8 years at or close to its present size as Cujo claims flowing 30/month with a trickle of new-hires ?

You're in denial.

Your last paragraph indicates you are in denial and also is the crux of the sales pitches going on by your cadre, but considering the pool of available new-hires is virtually dry, it will soon matter little where that trickle of pilots goes. Another paradigm will have to occur to keep this segment of the industry not only viable, but even in existence by then.

You still fail to make a coherent argument. If Envoy continues to shrink the need to withhold pilots on the flow is nonexistent. If the airline shrinks to oblivion, so be it. Hopefully then you will stop posting all of your desires for failure and factless remarks. The only reason you made it to AA is because of the "flow" so it worked for you why wouldn't for us? If you don't have anything constructive shut up and move on with your career at AA. After 1000+ negative posts aren't you tired of being wrong? it is time to move on.

I'm all about informing people but your bias is so clear that any point you want to make is irrelevant.

You might want to re-read the flow language... It's the LESSER of 50% of classes or 30 when the new planes come. So AA would have to be running classes of 60+ a month to get 30. All the other percentages and numbers are the LESSER as well. Current new hires get 25% or 5 slots in class if I recall. So envoy's flow has PSA beat by 1 when it comes to new hires.

Yes, that is possible....

Well then welcome to the incoherent club yourself.

The argument that AAG will just flow Envoy out of existence is absurd. Why ? Because SOMEONE has to provide that feed and there isn't anyone else out there and whatever AAG plans for Envoy, pointlessly abandoning that present market share just to altruisticly send them to AA isn't one of them. Now, one of the options may just end up transferring the 64-76 seat flying to AA along with affected pilots, but that is different. The flow COULD work for you, but my point is that SO FAR, AAG has made no move to support the fantasy being sold by some here. If and when that happens, I'll be the first to not only congratulate you, but the first to declare it valid if it is.

Now this is downright funny. Of all people to claim "informing" people, you would be the last person to wear that title or judge anyone else on that issue. Your posting history here and elsewhere regarding the past contractual issues and arguments at Envoy amounted to nothing more than being a management lackey advocating blind capitulation no doubt posting from the confines of an office chair.

But so unlikely, it's not worthy of consideration.

agreed.

That level of flow would poach pilots from everywhere else to come here.

He asked if it was possible, not probable. With the flow working that well, the line would be out the door to get in here. If ours does, then PDT's would too, and their apps would increase also.

It would create the dynamic of being able to go to a place like Mesa and upgrade fast and compete with 10,000 other regional pilots for a job at United... or going to ENY/PDT and upgrading in 2-3 years and flowing to AA in 6.... meanwhile the other guys at independants are enjoying their left seat regional job still competing for that United job. Eventually AA and Delta will likely both funnel pilots through their WO's; meaning if you aren't in one of the flow programs, your choice will only be a LCC or United.

The new American is nothing more than us air with lipstick. No substance just cheap looks

New hires after Dec 23, 2014 get a minimum of:

(Pilots Hired After DOS)
Envoy Pilots will occupy the lesser of 25% or 5 slots in a given month at American Airline new hire classes. The base number of 5 will be increased by 1 for every 125 pilots on the master seniority list above 480.

They could do more just as they can and sometimes do now.. We may or may not have more than 480 pilots in 5-6 years. Who knows. Right now we still have over 2000. Also it's still a WAY better flow than PSA because there is no interview. How many major airline interviews are successful the first time around? Maybe 20-30%? Not an interview I would want to count on passing coming from a wholly owned regional, especially when staffing is getting extremely bad at your company 5+ yrs from now.