True, you're right.

Ir would be mid 2021. Didnt Mr Wilson said 5.5...??? 😂😂😂😂

I've read several articles I agree with that have a consistent tone about oil prices. They won't return to to $80-$100/barrel range of the past, but will remain within a $55-$65/barrel range which is I believe now something like $48/barrel. OPEC is toast and the Saudi's will no longer be the swing producer that truly controls the market price. Several other OPEC producers are in trouble and Venezuela is on the verge of collapse. OPEC has maxed production in the hope of knocking out the shale business, but that is and will fail. The estimated break even cost for shale producers is about $50/barrel, so acceptable profits and stable prices are the expected future. As such, inefficient jets like 50-seat RJ's wont be parked on their economics, but on the other factor that renders them immobile.

A lack of pilots.

It may be that any glut of hiring done by Endeavor and others is simply to ensure that larger, advanced RJ delivery schedules are not threatened, which is a smart move. That same situation may just be why Parker is hesitant to commit more E-175's to Envoy as even with everything they can do, Envoy is looking like its contraction may be uncontrollable in the future. I've heard another round a 40 E-175's might be already worked out (just rumor), but banking on Envoy being anything more then an 80 jet airline in the future is risky. Presently at 1300 pilots and change (or so it's said), Envoy could burn the remainder of 824's to AA, have present outside attrition and BARELY staff an 80-jet/800 pilot airline in about 18 months. At that point, the present flow of the PP's threatens the viability of the carrier and something must be done, but what is the question.

Theoretically, yes, but see post above regarding my opinion on the Protected Pilots.

Something has gotta give by then as the present equation simply won't provide those flow projections unless Envoy is willing to park aircraft and relinquish flying just to flow pilots to AA. At some point, there would be nothing left to park or transfer but E-175's and I can't see that. The 824's might go close to planned (but metered to minimum), but the PP agreement is ripe for alteration, be it by force or more likely agreement, even if reluctantly.

Unfortunately, you are likely to be unpleasantly disappointed. As a PP or less, your chances of flowing in a reasonable time frame grow longer each month that Envoy falls short of hiring between 35 and 38 people.

Think of it this way, each month that only 15 new hires show up, your flow chances go down exponentially.

Endeavor might not pay off in the long run for this guy, but it sure beats Envoy hands down.

Anyone know how many in today's class?

Any idea of Reserve times out of ORD on the crj and erj

Consolidation will solve some problems for AAG.

8 New hires in todays class. All E175! This aint much for their planning.

Time to look at options.

Yes, at least for a little while and that was the point of my "reluctant agreement" statement to modification of the PP flow provisions instead of by force. A consolidation scenario is very likely to dilute the PP agreement for present Envoy pilots IMO further slowing the timelines being projected at present.

I don't think anyone who is more than 1.5 to 2 years from flowing at any of the WOs thinks they are going to flow in the projected time. I think EVY/PDT will merge and perhaps PSA might merge If AAG buys another small regional or maybe we will be sold off. No clue though honestly. If they bought someone it would likely be someone like AWAC.