Yeah realized I was told bad info. Should have checked it myself! Thanks for correcting.

This.....if ORD get Delta benefits expect a lot of ORD CAs to transition.

I heard they are already talking about lowering thr Upgrade criteria.. to what I don’t know.. but it will happen. And upgrade on the ERJ will drop. most likely to the fresh 1.5-2 year CRJ Upgrades being seat locked being ERJ bypassed..

We are having a ton of the people with restricted ATPs getting held up by the company mandated hour requirement.

I've heard those are coming q1 2018.
Even so the movement of these captains will drive progression across the seniority lists. They leave behind the good CRJ spots and make the CRJ upgrade more appealing. This is probably what is happening in LAX with all the transitions to ERJ SAN. Granted it may never be as good a qol but it will be better than the dtw/ord openings that many guys the heebie-jeebies.

How many lifers do you guys think are in ORD? 30 airplanes means 180 captains roughly. It’s not really hard math.

Close 139 captains in Chicago. 33 on that list is about 13 year mark.. do inwould say top 20 lifers. The 20-50 50% lifers below that 10% lifers. Just a guess...

When did they announce all 30 airplanes are going to ORD? I just saw the update regarding the initial (15?) order.

There's a bunch of lifers in ORD. I think we'll see something like we saw last year, the upgrade will dip down a bit and a mix of senior RJ CA's and a handful of upgrades will make up each CA class. If ORD/BOI is where the growth is....

If any of those airplanes go somewhere other than BOI or ORD there's plenty of RJ CA's and 4-5+ year existing 175 CA's with transition/transfer bids in. LA, SF, DEN and SEA have significant backlogs of senior pilots wishing to transition.

What's the pass rate of erj fo's going for crj captain?

I'm not sure but I wouldn't sweat it. People make too big a deal out of transition upgrading. It's certainly more work, but totally possible. I think anyone who would have issues making the transition upgrade would have issues upgrading no matter what.