I really don’t expect that many takers, but the company will have to make the offers. Legacy pilots aren’t building a resume anymore and commuting to regional reserve F/O pay won’t be that appealing. If United still needs to furlough that deep next summer, we all have bigger problems.

 

soneone else posted the number is 5 times the number of 70+ seaters OO flies for UAX, that was my understanding as well regarding the ratio. So 109 X 5 = 545?

 

Not a knock on OO but most airline pilots have the skillset and connections to get a job outside of aviation during a furlough that pays the same or more as a regional FO without all the time away from home. I wouldn't be too worried about the mainline guys coming to take all the spots.

 

That’s not correct. The LOA only covers airlines that fly 70/76 seaters, so companies like Air Wisconsin that only fly 50 seaters are exempt. You have the 5 times number correct, except that it is not 5 times the number of 70+ seaters, it is 5 times the total number of planes that company operates under the United brand. Just a technicality, but under the furlough protection LOA, all 76 seat jets would have to be converted to 70 seats if the hiring requirements were triggered. It’s kind of moot now though. The Covid recovery LOA mandates that all 76 seat jets be reconfigured to 70 seats by December 1st and stay that way as long as United is on reduced work.

 

I wouldn’t either. I’d rather work a double shift at Home Depot and sleep in my own bed than commute to 2nd year F/O pay. During the last furlough many went back to active duty, some got on with the ACMI carriers, a few went to regionals, while others expanded their side hustle.

 

Everyone getting caught up in the minutiae, but you highlighted the important part. First of all, there would have to be a need to hire. I just don’t see a real need any time soon, especially with all the trainees sent home in various stages of training. Secondly, a significant enough downturn to cause a huge influx of UA furloughs would mean flying was decimated (second wave, bankruptcy, scope lookbacks, any combination of those). It’s kind of a catch 22: need to hire more so the hiring pool is furloughed UA, but actually no need to hire due to industry cutbacks.

As for your your most recent comment about working at Home Depot, that’s not exactly a bad idea. A while back in the commutair forum I did some back-of-a-napkin math. At their rates (and similarly gojet and Mesa) and commuting to reserve with little to no callouts (ie you’re not racking up per diem, you’re only making 1st year pay on min guarantee, paying for a crash pad or hotel), you stand to make about as much or maybe a little less by finding a local job. Actual amounts vary. If you look up minimum wage, some states still pay a paltry $7.50, whereas others are $10-12 or more. Breaking down the actual work time/duty footprint shows the pay is pretty similar. A typical 4 day for me pays 19hrs and a TAFB of 78. Second year pay at 19hrs is approximately $950. If I were to get paid my state’s minimum wage for the 78 hours I was actually gone and working, that’s $12*78 which is $936. Now before anyone gets up in arms, yes I know you won’t be working 78 hours a week at a minimum wage job. But the local job will have you home every day, driving to work, more time at home, and no airline commuting and paying for a place while out of reserve. And the numbers get a bit closer if you look at something like C5 first year pay instead of OO at whatever longevity pay they give them. It’s also assuming you only got a minimum wage job. If you can get more like a $15-20/hr job at home, it starts looking more attractive to wait it out. I suppose the most compelling reason to take the potential regional job would be if they were hiring and you already had the type rating and you had the inside scoop telling you that you’d be based within 2 hours of where you presently live. I know the thought crossed my mind back in the CFI days when flying was slow, and it’s crossed my mind many times this summer since our jobs are perpetually in jeopardy.

But again, it’s all a bit moot if there’s no regional jobs to even hire for. I’m more of a cynic by nature but I have been expecting growth to be very slow and probably just whatever trainees have clung on throughout all this.

 

I don’t think that people should expect things to be back where they were for several years, at the regional or legacy airlines. My guess is that United is 20-30% smaller than 2019 levels by the end of next year. They could easily furlough the 2,000 pilots allowed by the LOA and then hold there. UAX flying will have to remain below United NB on a month to month basis. United could end up retiring the 757 fleet and replace that with the max order. The future of the 50 seat fleet is still far from safe. Those things are getting older and they get the bulk of the negative customer reviews. I could see a situation where a 50 seat fleet is retired and another regional is cut. It’s out of our control, but it’s far from over. Things will eventually recover to previous levels, but I think that Covid will redefine what “normal” is.

 

don’t sweat it. They only want good news here and if you point out the fact that airlines are teetering on the edge of an Abyss with most of them running out of cash over the next year, you’ll be scoffed at. “We never furlough” you’ll be told”.

tick tock.....

 

You might as well just get it over with and resign now.



tick tock.....

 

So far pretty much everyone has furloughed except skywest. You said sth like 40-50% of the pilot group would get laid off.
People want news and facts, good or bad, not a fake Nostradamus.