Those ERJ Captain bids are all transitions, bidding 13% in ORD I'm a good year out from holding left seat. CRJ for me again just to give those an idea as to when you'll hold a left seat 175 slot.

 

I don't remember statistics in high school but I did take it in college and grad school and happen to have the book "Applications of probability and Random Variables", 1974 edition, sitting on the table next to me, but I certainly don't consider myself an expert at it. I have looked at the numbers of people bypassing upgrades which is pretty high for many reasons including not wanting to commute, not wanting to be at the bottom, not feeling ready. And, if there is a 1000 part 121 requirement for upgrade, then the upgrade time will go way down and that decrease will accelerate rapidly when it enters the realm of pilots who have been here less than 2 years and do not have the 1000 hours needed.

I think that many of you will be surprised at how low it goes, even at Skywest. I think that even I will be surprise. I'm just trying to look at things and make projections.

 

"If"? Wow.

 

Wasn't that long ago they walked i to newhire classes and asked if any one wanted a E120 Captain spot... We're not there (planes gone) but that was in the 60 new CRJ's coming days. Look at whats going on now.. 50 New E175's coming.. And attrition is way up compaired to those days... I see it at 2 years by summer. Maybe even dip under 2 late summer. Not cool aid'ing this go were you live. East coast PSA/Air Willy ect..

 

Look. Anyone flying the CRJ will easily have 1000 hours in well under 2 years. I'm almost there (just shy of 1000, hit 2 years next month) and I have been through 2 training sessions and I drop trips like they're going out of style. You also assume that all the guys bypassing upgrade will continue to bypass indefinitely. Like I said, it may dip to 2 years, but it ain't gonna get much lower and it ain't gonna stay there for long. That is of course unless we make several new sims appear out of nowhere and stick them in a new training center that doesn't exist. Oh and can keep LCAs longer than it takes to train them.

 

I think we are averaging 1 or 2 ERJ UPGRADES per month. Will be interesting to see if they slow upgrades for the summer again. I'm as optimistic as the next guy, but also realistic. There are 100's of guys in line for first upgrade. 100's more willing to go as far East as Denver. At the rate the training department is going, it would take 2 years to get through 1000 upgrades. That's assuming everything continues full tilt.

 

You have to have been here for over five years to come an hour short of that. At five years an average month brings in 7.5 with everything rounded up. Over half of the pilots have been here for less than five years.
Longevity
90 days .019.
2 years .027
5 years .038

6 months .038
5 years .046

 

Denied, denied, denied.

What the hell is the point of even having user/vacation time, if all of your requests get denied.

 

Low upgrades on 175 because of transitions in senior bases, some of which has to be done because that bases CRJ flying is being completely transferred to the 175. Once the senior bases are filled with transitions/transfers then you will see more ERJ upgrades probably into ORD.

 

Yes. Eventually. There are currently 140 CRJ captains with their transition bid in. That list grows daily.