It'll keep dropping until DTW stops expanding.

The only reason it's dropping is because senior people are waiting to see what the flying is like in dtw. I would have been 40% on the last bid.

It will start coming back up as more senior FO's see they can hold a descent line.

No one knows where our 700's are going or if they will have homes at all. That is 52 airframes and talk about killing those upgrade hopes.

Well I know at least some of the UA 700s went to AA. Saw one of them with fresh new 'Eagle' paint in EUG the other day. As an RJ guy in SFO it's painful to see nearly all our 700s disappear...

They have 6 headed over there. I think they said 2/month. Getting rid off 700's and still flying those trash cans they call 200's.

The upgrade will likely stay right around 2.5 to 3 years for a while. Street captains ain't going to happen. We have hundreds of FOs with the requisite time to hold captain.

It will keep dropping because so many are leaving. Everyone I fly with seems to be on their last trip before they leave for Delta, United, or Southwest. So many of the FOs have little real experience but many are smart enough to understand they need more experience before they upgrade.

This is the year of Skywest. Skywest is the place to be as great things will be happening.

You say you understand numbers, but obviously you don't. The upgrade can only drop so low with a 4000 pilot airline (and growing). Like I said before, it may drop close to 2 years but will climb back up unless we can significantly increase the size of our training department. Only 24 upgrade awarded this month by the way.

Someone here much longer than I told me traditionally the summer is slow to no upgrading, I assume for the big push all hands on deck I guess.

Yup. Last year they completely stopped for a couple months. Then you'll see a significant number of "more senior" guys upgrade because they're afraid they'll miss their chance otherwise. Same cycle as last year.

Do you even work here? This post is divorced from reality. The 'gone' list is usually 40% FOs in training. There just isn't that much attrition above the 2500 numbers.