Figure they won't have to pay you profit share in that last year so they'll be able to afford to send you to the sim for bounces.

 

Hopefully in the next 27 years we can get that fixed....profit sharing as long as you’re an employee. Helps out those on medical, MIL, retirees and new hires.

 

Any word of the next window opening?

 

FWIW got an invite about 2 weeks ago. Submitted in the last round. Currently 4th or 5th total attempt.

 

With AA, UA, and DL offering upgrades well below ten years there is value in determining approximate upgrade times for the basis of comparison.

Most junior captain is a 90 thousand number - system seniority around 6235. Not sure what that equates to in hire date.

Looks like about 1000 FOs are bypassing.


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Most junior upgrade hire date right now is March 2010. Classes canceled for December, so he was right at 9.5 years as an early November upgrade.
I suspect it will drop significantly once the max is back on line (whenever that happens) and then again when we hit the “recession bubble” where there was only sporadic pilot hiring for a few years.
My crystal ball thinks it will drop to 6-7 years, but guys around Zap and my seniority will probably not see that and will be more around 8 years for first available.
I was discussing bypass FOs with a captain the other day. He pointed out (correctly) that that group has pretty much always existed, even when things were really slow. Bypassers gonna bypass. It’s usually for a good reason. I know if I had the choice between my current domicile as a senior FO or commuting to OAK or LA to hold a junior captain seat, that I would bypass to infinity.

 

This to a T.

 

True that. A recession could also throw a monkey wrench in the whole works. They’re only talking like 250 upgrades this year. That’s next to nothing in a 10,000 pilot group so I’m a little more pessimistic. I’m still thinking 10ish years for a base that isn’t Oakland.

 

Happy New Year Zap!

 

New DEN terminal expansion should be done around 2021 I think. Base should nearly double in size. I’m sitting around 45% on the FO list so I’ll get really senior or get lucky with a CA spot. Been moving up 15% or so every year so 2 more years should have me around 15% on the FO side (and that’s without the new gates being factored in). Depending on bypasses, etc. I think it’ll be close....by end of 2021 I’ll have 6 full years on property. *assuming Max’s aren’t turned to beer cans, and there’s no big recession, age 85, etc.