Exactly there's the business side and then there's the emotional side.

And I've certainly read legacy guys trying to shove it at the LCC/ULCC guys that they won't survive this thing. So it's going both ways. We are in the SWA forum and we can talk about how we hope SWA will pull through this and thrive on the other side. That is not mutually exclusive of feeling for the buddies we all know at other carriers that might find themselves on the street. I may certainly find myself there as well.


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I'm just asking what the flavor is. Nothing more. Is it cherry? I like cherry.

 

Not to mention, as I posted before, a decimated legacies may provide for more "market share" for SWA, but the market (and by extension pay/benefits) will be severely degraded for years with many on the street. CBA's will be forced to compete with even new upstarts that rise from the ashes (taken to it's extreme) and SWAPA will find itself competing for a CBA under increasingly depressed rates of pay and benefits.
Wishing for a devastated industry so that SWA can gain marketshare, IMO will be counterproductive to labor as thousands of well paid pilots would be ousted and eventually replaced with lower paid new LCC pilots.

 

Ain’t no way there won’t be pain at the Trailways. Rest assured that most of us on this forum are worried as well.

 

I think absolutely everyone is worried and the best that anyone dares hope for is that enough demand returns that furloughs are narrowly avoided and companies are able to limp their way back towards a path to health.

Some are clearly better positioned to do that than others, and will likely take advantage of the situation once things are stabilized.

 

.........
,,,,,

 

“Southwest Airlines Co. (the “Company”) has entered into sale-leaseback transactions with certain counterparties for 10 of the Company’s Boeing 737-800 aircraft and 10 of the Company’s Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft. The Company expects to receive gross proceeds of approximately $815 million, which it intends to use for general corporate purposes.”





SEC-Show

 

Yes. Again, cash is king. Monetizing your owned assets in a transaction that is favorable to you (capital lease at super low interest vs outright ownership) makes perfect sense when you have a high credit score.

Other airlines are attempting similar arrangements and not having much luck.

 

Sounds like the company is following the sound financial advise from the SWAPA form gods.

 

Here's an up to date TSA traveler throughput chart. I've been experimenting with charting different variables to see if there's any kind of correlation. I asked a guy with a masters in computer science from an Ivy League school to run a statistical analysis on some of the numbers. He used a "pair-wise Pearson correlation analysis" to evaluate the data.

The analysis found that there's no correlation at all between cumulative US covid deaths and traveler numbers. But, there is a mild negative correlation with daily new US covid cases (-.43) and a mild positive correlation with the number of US states that are open for business (.42). The scale is -1 to 1 with zero being no correlation. It goes without saying that correlation does not mean causation.

Here's the chart: blue (TSA traveler throughput), dark red (YOY change in throughput), yellow (daily new cases), green (number of states open). Yesterday, was the best day for traveler numbers since Mar 25 and the best YOY day since Mar 28. The numbers are continuing to improve.

9 May Travelers.jpg