Why so much cash?
05-09-2020 | 05:20 PM
#82
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 257
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From: The right seat
Here's an up to date TSA traveler throughput chart. I've been experimenting with charting different variables to see if there's any kind of correlation. I asked a guy with a masters in computer science from an Ivy League school to run a statistical analysis on some of the numbers. He used a "pair-wise Pearson correlation analysis" to evaluate the data.
The analysis found that there's no correlation at all between cumulative US covid deaths and traveler numbers. But, there is a mild negative correlation with daily new US covid cases (-.43) and a mild positive correlation with the number of US states that are open for business (.42). The scale is -1 to 1 with zero being no correlation. It goes without saying that correlation does not mean causation.
Here's the chart: blue (TSA traveler throughput), dark red (YOY change in throughput), yellow (daily new cases), green (number of states open). Yesterday, was the best day for traveler numbers since Mar 25 and the best YOY day since Mar 28. The numbers are continuing to improve.
Attachment 5323
The analysis found that there's no correlation at all between cumulative US covid deaths and traveler numbers. But, there is a mild negative correlation with daily new US covid cases (-.43) and a mild positive correlation with the number of US states that are open for business (.42). The scale is -1 to 1 with zero being no correlation. It goes without saying that correlation does not mean causation.
Here's the chart: blue (TSA traveler throughput), dark red (YOY change in throughput), yellow (daily new cases), green (number of states open). Yesterday, was the best day for traveler numbers since Mar 25 and the best YOY day since Mar 28. The numbers are continuing to improve.
Attachment 5323
Thanks.
05-09-2020 | 06:38 PM
#83
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The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).
If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.
If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
05-09-2020 | 07:07 PM
#84
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 257
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From: The right seat
No problem.
The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).
If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.
If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).
If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.
If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
05-09-2020 | 07:53 PM
#85
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,222
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No problem.
The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).
If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.
If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
The low occurred on April 14 (a Tues) at 87,534. Yesterday, there were 215,444 travelers, an increase of almost 2.5x over the low. The week of April 12 marked the low week since the covid crisis started. The week after that (April 19) increased an average of 11.4% over the week of April 12. The week of April 26 increased an average of 25.4% over the week of April 19. And this week has also averaged 25.4% over last week (so far).
If each week were to continue to average a 25% increase in travelers over the week before it (a BIG if), then we'd exceed one million travelers per day by the first full week of July. We'd go over two million travelers per day by the week of Jul 26. The next week would beat last year's numbers. Obviously, something will break down between now and then. But every little bit helps. If we can get to 40%, 50%, or even 60% of last year's numbers by the end of summer, I'm sure we'd all feel a lot more secure.
If there is any kind of actual causative relationship between daily covid cases or the number of open states and traveler throughput, then an increase in daily covid cases or states being forced to close back up because of an outbreak could negatively impact the numbers.
2+million, or back to previous highs.. maybe for the Thanksgiving weekend and next Spring back to normal loads.
05-10-2020 | 05:22 AM
#86
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 244
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I’ve mentioned this before in another thread in the SWA sub forum. Some of the folks in the SWA thread are gloating over the fact that their competitors, the “Big 3”, are going to have a very difficult time over the next few years. There are tens of thousands of your fellow aviators over at the Big 3 who may/will be devastated by this. To gloat over that fact is absolutely classless.
05-11-2020 | 08:19 AM
#87
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 533
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From: CA
you have to keep in mind how many of that 2 million were going through TSA for international departures.
05-11-2020 | 10:08 AM
#88
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Joined: Jun 2010
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From: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.
05-11-2020 | 11:27 AM
#89
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Joined: Mar 2011
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Why so much cash?
https://awt.cbp.gov
I'm sure someone smarter than me can take this data, extrapolate it out, and answer that question. Then, ideally, I would do a look back based on our LF from the weekly On the Radar and figure how approximately how many of those daily TSA numbers fly SWA.
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06-04-2020 | 12:46 PM
#90
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I couldn’t agree more with this. The primary goal is to survive longer than all the competition. As demand improves they will try to find work for all 700+ current airplanes and employees. Then there’s the Max. RTS training is still planned for the end of summer. They have greatly reduced deliveries but negotiated the ability to flex up or down depending on demand. Flex up by increasing deliveries that others don’t want anymore or flex down by taking the reduced deliveries and retiring NG’s. The big 3 have already committed to shrinking and announced plans of retirements because they don’t have a choice.
SWA is the only airline to go into this with a net positive cash to debt position by almost 1B. They now have almost 15B cash and 10B debt. They sold 2B in stock and got the 2B CARES grant. Of course they are burning through 30M-35M per day, but as the economy opens up that will improve. Those ratios equate to the best durability of any airline....by far. Why not have the cash? You can never have too much in times like this. If they don’t need it later they will pay off the debt.
SWA is the only airline to go into this with a net positive cash to debt position by almost 1B. They now have almost 15B cash and 10B debt. They sold 2B in stock and got the 2B CARES grant. Of course they are burning through 30M-35M per day, but as the economy opens up that will improve. Those ratios equate to the best durability of any airline....by far. Why not have the cash? You can never have too much in times like this. If they don’t need it later they will pay off the debt.
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