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Old 11-09-2022 | 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Justabusdriver1
Your statement isn’t exactly the full truth. Those that left were not all new hires. This is pretty significant growth on the fo side and they hired almost 3x the number of fos compared to those that left. A new hire fo does the same work a 4th year fo does at less than 1/2 the cost. Don’t think they are hurting for captains. Fos are easily replaced and it shows they are doing just that.
It’s a growth airline. They are growing and they do like and plan for some attrition for the reasons you mentioned. Problem is they aren’t growing at the rate they need to to fly the new airplanes they pushed back during covid. That’s why they are losing money. They attempted to train their way out of it and have reached max training capacity and still cannot staff for the growth. They are out of options except for massive raises or a black swan event. I’d anticipate the 319s getting parked as option three before any meaningful progress in negotiations. The only management group that is more anti pilot is at frontier.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 07:47 AM
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Originally Posted by PossibleDeviation
But “easily replacing FOs” isn’t gonna cut it. It isn’t going to help accommodate all of the airplanes we are taking on and isn’t going to help increase utilization.
I’m not arguing for or against the general idea of that. It was the sole statement half the people we hired already left. Which isn’t really true since those that are leaving are from multiple years of service not just new hires. The other way to look at it is we hired twice as many people that have left which is growth. Don’t have long term data but losing 2 captains this past month. How many did we upgrade? I’m sure we hired more fos than left and upgraded more captains than left.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 07:48 AM
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What’s the current size of the pilot group?
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Old 11-09-2022 | 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by dualinput
It’s a growth airline. They are growing and they do like and plan for some attrition for the reasons you mentioned. Problem is they aren’t growing at the rate they need to to fly the new airplanes they pushed back during covid. That’s why they are losing money. They attempted to train their way out of it and have reached max training capacity and still cannot staff for the growth. They are out of options except for massive raises or a black swan event. I’d anticipate the 319s getting parked as option three before any meaningful progress in negotiations. The only management group that is more anti pilot is at frontier.
I think they can train their way out of an fo shortage but it doesn’t help in the short term. They hired nearly 3 times the number that left. With the training delays and lack of experience getting a new fo to the line and ready to fly though does have its delays even with a net gain. Personally don’t think the attrition looks that bad but the situation calls for a reduction in attrition to grow and increase utilization. Training their way out may take a couple years to get to the level they need to by itself.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 08:02 AM
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Couple years from now we will look like a regional… low time FO new hire won’t have the company qualifications to upgrade.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted by GrumpyCaptain
Couple years from now we will look like a regional… low time FO new hire won’t have the company qualifications to upgrade.
Couple years from now that most likely will be irrelevant as I'm sure JB has different qualifications for upgrading. If the merger isn't approved, then yes, I 100% agree Spirit will start having issues with qualified upgrade candidates and they'll have to adjust minimums. As was/is the case with Sun Country.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Justabusdriver1
Your statement isn’t exactly the full truth. Those that left were not all new hires. This is pretty significant growth on the fo side and they hired almost 3x the number of fos compared to those that left. A new hire fo does the same work a 4th year fo does at less than 1/2 the cost. Don’t think they are hurting for captains. Fos are easily replaced and it shows they are doing just that.
Most of the legacies are backlogged. When they start up new hire training again at the beginning of the year, the floodgates will open.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
Most of the legacies are backlogged. When they start up new hire training again at the beginning of the year, the floodgates will open.
Yep - I think so too. Especially if a TA isn't agreed upon at that point.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 09:03 AM
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
Most of the legacies are backlogged. When they start up new hire training again at the beginning of the year, the floodgates will open.
Are you suggesting it’s be worse than what this year already showed? Year to date spirit has hired twice as many as those that left. If anything I think hiring will be higher than precovid but you’ll start to see it slow and come to an equilibrium as Covid recovery is achieved and they focus on replacing retirees and growth. Just because they’ve slowed hiring for now doesn’t mean it’ll be averaged in Jan when compared to last Jan.
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Old 11-09-2022 | 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
Most of the legacies are backlogged. When they start up new hire training again at the beginning of the year, the floodgates will open.
Which legacy is backlogged? American united and delta have classes weekly all full

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