Well... duh.

And the fact that the main ULCC demand that supports daily service is to MCO, LAS, and cheap Florida vacations... And the two ULCCs realized they have largely saturated that market and are having to compete with each other and cannibalize each other's demand on those routes. It's why Spirit and Frontier have 2-3x more overlap than JB+NK.

 

Yeah, it's always a fight, but JB has indicated it knows it will have to pay up. If I ad to negotiate a JCBA again Robin or Frankie, I know which one I'd pick 8 days a week.

 

What are the odds Ted responds to Ryan’s email tomorrow 6/14 as the letter requested?


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Slim to none. He’s too busy brainstorming his next executive communication email about why F9 is good and JB is bad.

 

idk, way before my time. OKC was back when we did charters.

 

Short term on attrition, see the company getting a new CBA more quickly? Or just going to be targeting SkyWest, Mesa and GoJet pilots from here on out. I imagine with the WO'd new contracts the recruitment pool is going to start drying up can't imagine too many people wanting to take a $25+ hr pay cut to move over. Know a handful of people that had start dates that have already said they'll be staying at their regional now. Top of scale in 5 years until you flow?

 

Nothing was big back then. Pilot group was sub 300 pilots. Bases we have now are bigger than the seniority list then.

 

Looking for insights from those FOs who left for a legacy. Specifically if you were holding a line and living in base, going back to reserve and having to commute.

Was it worth it?

 

Honestly if I were in their shoes, I wouldn't be going anywhere either, especially those that are competitive for an ULCC now. Will be interesting to see how long it takes some of the none-WO to up their scales. I do know Mesa just released some numbers and they were horrible, I would imagine they go back to the drawing board now as well.

This is all good in reality, as it sets the new bottom for the industry and everything should move up from it, however it will be a tough summer. X list here we go.

 

Those people clearly aren't good at math beyond shiny new pay scale for the next two years. I'm still leaving. I crunched the numbers, and by 2030 (granted nothing is *ever* guaranteed....) ULCC comes out ahead by several hundred thousand dollars. I don't want to slog back and forth flying 25 minuted flights for 5+ years, just to flow and then commute to reserve in JFK on a 73 and wait another 15 to upgrade... Maybe a 23yo FO at the WOs will go for it, but the math just doesn't add up. Regional flying is also about to get swallowed up by mainline due to attrition, and it sure is tough to get to 1000PIC if your 4-day credits 8 hours.

Of course there will be people who want to stay, but a short term raise won't keep people at regionals who are thinking beyond their next paycheck. Those are the kinds of people I hope to fly with at NK. (or FronSpir/JetSpir...)